February the climo snow month

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know Will did the averages out in a nicely detailed map so he can post it. I'm pretty sure BOS averages more than even Danbury or close to it. One storm this year in a borderline airmass doesn't really change things. You really gain snow amounts quickly near 42N. If we had a more typical Nina behavior, you guys probably would be gardening down there.  

I do prefer Summer, warm weather over cold and winter for sure. 

You may be right, just have to caveat whatever map you see you have to add at least 15% to SW CT due to Bridgeport reporting.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We watch

I think right after has more potential. That setup is putrid with retreating high and low into the lakes.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I do prefer Summer, warm weather over cold and winter for sure. 

You may be right, just have to caveat whatever map you see you have to add at least 15% to SW CT due to Bridgeport reporting.

BDR seems much more in line from a met friend who lives in Milford. According to him anyways. I know in the past there were issues.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It has no detail. 25-50" category. LOL. OK.

Its been debunked several times. Fake old news

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think right after has more potential. That setup is putrid with retreating high and low into the lakes.

Para Euro likes the 3rd

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know Will did the averages out in a nicely detailed map so he can post it. I'm pretty sure BOS averages more than even Danbury or close to it. One storm this year in a borderline airmass doesn't really change things. You really gain snow amounts quickly near 42N. If we had a more typical Nina behavior, you guys probably would be gardening down there.  

 

[TheSnowman]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

 you are the MET so will take your word. I just used the below probably not too granular.

I just HAVE to caveat that Bridgeport seems to represent all of coastal SW CT. So what u see there in SW CT u have to add at least 15% to the annual average to be correct Blizzard be of 96 Bridgeport 15 Fairfield Norwalk etc all 27. Blizzard of 2006 Bridgeport 12 Fairfield 22 Norwalk 20) can go on and on frustrating, and the NWS used those BS Bridgeport totals to make maps like below. 

All that map says  to me is......  

 

TUG HILL PLATEAU BABY!      
Also, in Total I average 50” here.  So that line is way North.  And Burrilleville, RI Averages at Least 10”-12” more a season than me.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

My rough patches look to be NYC, Tolland, ORH and NNE....thought still plenty of time to make up ground up north.

Much better effort than the past two season.

December-March Snowfall Outlook

 

City	Predicted Snowfall	Actual	Forecast Error
Boston, MA	40-50"	?	?
NewYork, NY(Central Park)	11-21"	?	?
Philadelphia, PA	11-21"	?	?
Baltimore, MD	10-20"	?	?
Washington, DC	5-15"	?	?
Albany, NY	52-62"	?	?
Hartford, CT	40-50"	?	?
Providence, RI	25-35"	?	?
Worcester, MA	50-60"	?	?
Tolland, CT	40-50"	?	?
Methuen, MA	50-60"	?	?
Hyannis, MA	15-25"	?	?
Burlington, VT	80-90"	?	?
Portland, ME	70-80"	?	?
Concord, NH	65-75"	?	?

[tamarack]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The most favorable ENSO state for snowfall is weak el nino. I don't care what data you find. I will grant you that a super el nino is probably worse than a super la nina....not merely strong, but very strong.

Here's the average percentages of their snowfall normals at CAR, PWM and Farmington for various ENSO states, 50-51 thru last winter:
                              Avg S     N
EL NINO     
Very strong         73.8%      3 
Strong               116.3%      3
Moderate            83.5%      6
Weak                 101.8%    14
LA NADA          101.6%    22
LA NINA                 
Weak                 101.7%    13
Moderate          115.4%     6
Strong                 90.8%      3
Tables I've seen do not show any very strong Ninas.

And that average snowfall map for 1981-2010 will look different when the 1991-2020 data is published, as 2011-20 had a whole lot more snow in most places than did 1981-1990.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Well, it’s Burlington, VT centric, so I guess all the attention to detail is up there. Lazy depiction down in SNE. 

As god meant it to be

[Fozz]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

As god meant it to be

It still seems a bit low from what I know. Doesn't BVT average 80-85"?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

It still seems a bit low from what I know. Doesn't BVT average 80-85"?

Long term BTV is like 74" or something...but I think more recently it is much higher. I remember noticing that their avg since 1970 is closer to 84". Some of that may be measuring techniques which would affect them up there more than a place down here. They get a lot of fluffier clipper/LES/blocked upslope type events where if you don't measure right away, you may underestimate it quite a bit. On the flip side, compaction is really only a huge deal on large snowfalls. But if they used to be a once per day type measuring spot prior to the mid-20th century, even the little ones may add up after a while.

[George001]

Another reason why big ninos suck is not only do they screw us that year, but for the next several years until we cool off the ocean. Not saying it’s the Nina that does this, as that idea I had has been refuted, but maybe the atmosphere drivers that allow a big Nina to form cools off the ocean as well. Regardless, if we want pac help in the following years it would make sense to root for a big Nina. For example look at the big nino in 2009-2010. After that winter, we didn’t get a really favorable pac until 2013 (even the epic winter of 2010-2011 was mostly Atlantic driven). After the big Nina in 2010-2011, we had one garbage pac winter follow, then 3 consecutive great pac winters until the super nino in 2016. I strongly believe that the super nino of 2016 screwed us in the following winters as well and is why we haven’t had any pacific help since the epic 2014-2015 winter. If we had a big nina earlier like the year right after I don’t think we would have been stuck in pac hell for 5 straight years, but it would have been more like 2-3 years. Since we didn’t get any help to cool off the ocean there isn’t anything to stop the flow from getting flatter and mild air from flooding the country. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, George001 said:

Another reason why big ninos suck is not only do they screw us that year, but for the next several years until we cool off the ocean. Not saying it’s the Nina that does this, as that idea I had has been refuted, but maybe the atmosphere drivers that allow a big Nina to form cools off the ocean as well. Regardless, if we want pac help in the following years it would make sense to root for a big Nina. For example look at the big nino in 2009-2010. After that winter, we didn’t get a really favorable pac until 2013 (even the epic winter of 2010-2011 was mostly Atlantic driven). After the big Nina in 2010-2011, we had one garbage pac winter follow, then 3 consecutive great pac winters until the super nino in 2016. I strongly believe that the super nino of 2016 screwed us in the following winters as well and is why we haven’t had any pacific help since the epic 2014-2015 winter. If we had a big nina earlier like the year right after I don’t think we would have been stuck in pac hell for 5 straight years, but it would have been more like 2-3 years. Since we didn’t get any help to cool off the ocean there isn’t anything to stop the flow from getting flatter and mild air from flooding the country. 

What you are referring to is called the "Delayed Oscillation" theory, and I have written about it.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/

Stronger ENSO events correlate more to the opposite ENSO state the following season due to the subsurface phenomena that drive ENSO, such as the Walker Cycle. This does not mean that we are screwed for several years following an intense el nino, but rather that a la nina is favored after a super el nino. 1983-1984 and 2016-2017 were decent snowfall la nina seasons immediately following intense el nino events.

[CoastalWx]

I'd rather a strong Nino. At least we'll have some storm chances with a Nino pattern vs a strong Nina. 2nd year Nina next year?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd rather a strong Nino. At least we'll have some storm chances with a Nino pattern vs a strong Nina. 2nd year Nina next year?

Sure, maybe its easier to nickel and dime your way to a couple of forgettable extra inches in strong la nina, but odds of a big one are nearly nil in a very strong la nina.

Last three super el nino seasons:

1982-1983: Megalopolis blizzard.

1997-1998: Dec 23 bomb that dropped an 8"-spot on Ayer in an hour.

2015-2016- Top 3 mid atl blizzard.

 

I rest my case-

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, maybe its easier to nickel and dime your way to a couple of forgettable extra inches in strong la nina, but odds of a big one are nearly nil in a very strong la nina.

Last three super el nino seasons:

1982-1983: Megalopolis blizzard.

1997-1998: Dec 23 bomb that dropped and 8"-spot on Ayer in an hour.

2015-2016- Top 3 mid atl blizzard.

 

I rest my case-

Yes exactly. 

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, maybe its easier to nickel and dime your way to a couple of forgettable extra inches in strong la nina, but odds of a big one are nearly nil in a very strong la nina.

Last three super el nino seasons:

1982-1983: Megalopolis blizzard.

1997-1998: Dec 23 bomb that dropped an 8"-spot on Ayer in an hour.

2015-2016- Top 3 mid atl blizzard.

 

I rest my case-

Mm... I'm not sure the El Nino was left to operate on the atmosphere in a vacuum - i.e., lesser unimpeded and allowed fuller proxy. 

The HC shit off sets the warm ENSO phase as canvas destructive interference ... just sayn'

Although it is necessary to point out, these are not absolutes.  The thing is ... we can have a huge mega-gongo bomb in any regime. It's just a matter of time...  And 40 years isn't much in geological means and consequences.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I'm not sure the El Nino was left to operate on the atmosphere in a vacuum - i.e., lesser unimpeded and allowed fuller proxy. 

The HC shit off sets the warm ENSO phase as canvas destructive interference ... just sayn'

Although it is necessary to point out, these are not absolutes.  The thing is ... we can have a huge mega-gongo bomb in any regime. It's just a matter of time...  And 40 years isn't much in geological means and consequences.

How prominent was your expanded HC in Feb 1983 and Dec 1997?

What it means is that high-end events are much more frequent in strong el  nino seasons than in strong la nina seasons during the period of record, regardless of why.

[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, maybe its easier to nickel and dime your way to a couple of forgettable extra inches in strong la nina, but odds of a big one are nearly nil in a very strong la nina.

Last three super el nino seasons:

1982-1983: Megalopolis blizzard.

1997-1998: Dec 23 bomb that dropped an 8"-spot on Ayer in an hour.

2015-2016- Top 3 mid atl blizzard.

 

I rest my case-

Did well in 2 out of the 3 of those events.

 

The 97-98 season was a ratter here though.  We missed the December event here in 97. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Did well in 2 out of the 3 of those events.

 

The 97-98 season was a ratter here though.  We missed the December event here in 97. 

Yea, strong canonical el nino seasons are very mild....no debating that.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How prominent was your expanded HC in Feb 1983 and Dec 1997?

What is means is that high-end events are much more frequent in strong el  nino seasons than in strong la nina seasons during the period of record, regardless of why.

Firstly ...I'd like the attitude to shift away from "yours"  haha ... yeah, it's not me, or mine.  But I know what you mean -

anyway, it is changing over time.   The impetus there is/was ...we cannot use the institutional model of ENSO - necessarily ...  The building is  presently closed down for restoration lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Firstly ...I'd like the attitude to shift away from "yours"  haha ... yeah, it's not me, or mine.  But I know what you mean -

anyway, it is changing over time.   The impetus there is/was ...we cannot use the institutional model of ENSO - necessarily ...  They are presently closing down the edifice for restoration lol

I get what you mean in that past ENSO composites need to be modified, but I'm not sure that that will change the fact that there is a more prominent STJ during el nino than la nina...or let me rephrase, until I see evidence that that is no longer the case, I'll take my chances on scoring a big fish in a strong el nino, rather than la nina.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get what you mean in that past ENSO composites need to be modified, but I'm not sure that that will change the fact that there is a more prominent STJ during el nino than la nina...or let me rephrase, until I see evidence that that is no longer the case, I'll take my chances on scoring a big fish in a strong el nino, rather than la nina.

Yeah it's research required .. big time. 

Going forward, out of box presumptive approach to ENSO application needs more than a modicum of caveat emptor ...

This year, frankly ...did not really look very La Nina anyway...  It looks rather -AO forcing the hemispheric hand, while simultaneously a maintained velocity sensitivity took place below 38 or so N latitude. 

So it was very split ... ding ding ding!  right along the fade latitudes where the Hadley Cell circulation kisses/meets the E along the lower latitudes of the Ferril Cell ( 60 or so N)

Mind you, these are not concrete curbs in free space..these are all amorphous atmospheric mass tendency -defined.   Anyway, the easterly trades of the Ferril and the westerlies around the HC...that is the cylone band at mid latitudes ( in the means...) and since the hemisphere is so split and gradient soaked in that region, it sheared - it's too much. 

It almost seems that if we didn't have the -AO dominate above 55 N ... we wouldn't have had a winter. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah it's research required .. big time. 

Going forward, out of box presumptive approach to ENSO application is caveat emptor ...

This year, frankly ...did not really look very La Nina anyway...  It looks rather -AO forcing the hemispheric hand, while simultaneously a maintained velocity sensitivity took place below 38 or so N latitude. 

So it was very split ... ding ding ding!  right along the fade latitudes where the Hadley Cell circulation kisses/meets the E along the lower latitudes of the Ferril Cell ( 60 or so N)

Mind you, these are not concrete curbs in free space..these are all amorphous atmospheric mass tendency -defined.   Anyway, the easterly trades of the Ferril and the westerlies around the HC...that is the cylone band at mid latitudes ( in the means...) and since the hemisphere is so split and gradient soaked in that region, it sheared - it's too much. 

It almost seems that if we didn't have the -AO dominate above 55 N ... we wouldn't have had a winter. 

The only aspect that was la nina like was the prevalent RNA during the second half, although there have been past la nina seasons that featured good deal of blocking.

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure, maybe its easier to nickel and dime your way to a couple of forgettable extra inches in strong la nina, but odds of a big one are nearly nil in a very strong la nina.

Last three super el nino seasons:

1982-1983: Megalopolis blizzard.

1997-1998: Dec 23 bomb that dropped an 8"-spot on Ayer in an hour.

2015-2016- Top 3 mid atl blizzard.

 

I rest my case-

1997-1998 and 2015-2016 were garbage here with no big ones (18+) in New England (2016 missed to the south as is typical with strong ninos) only 1982-1983 had a massive blizzard in New England. 
 

Last 3 super Nina seasons

2010-2011 3 massive blizzards bringing 18+ inches to areas of the region with several smaller events on top of that

2007-2008 no bigger storms, a bunch of 6-12 type storms.

1999-2000- garbage.

Conclusion: last 3 big ninas, 3 big ones. Last 3 big ninos, one big one. Big ninas are more favorable for big ones in New England than big ninos. In the Mid Atlantic, big ninos are much more favorable for big ones.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

1997-1998 and 2015-2016 were garbage here with no big ones (18+) in New England (2016 missed to the south as is typical with strong ninos) only 1982-1983 had a massive blizzard in New England. 
 

Last 3 super Nina seasons

2010-2011 3 massive blizzards bringing 18+ inches to areas of the region with several smaller events on top of that

2007-2008 no bigger storms, a bunch of 6-12 type storms.

1999-2000- garbage.

Conclusion: last 3 big ninas, 3 big ones. Last 3 big ninos, one big one. Big ninas are more favorable for big ones in New England than big ninos. In the Mid Atlantic, big ninos are much more favorable for big ones.
 

Firstly, SW NE did get a good deal of snow from that Jan 2016 event, and the Dec 1997 was very prolific north of Boston, regardless of what took place in your back yard. Additionally, those three la nina events were barely over the strong threshold. Secondly, you can't count one season three times. 2/3 of those la nina seasons featured no major SNE events...all three of those super el nino seasons did.
Sorry, but you're wrong. The prominent STJ in stronger el nino seasons, while not ideal for this region, is better for the prospects of major winter storm than a strong la nina regime. Additionally, el nino is more highly correlated with neg NAO, than la nina, which is another reason why it is more beneficial.

[ORH_wxman]

What method of grading ENSO does 2007-2008 or 1999-2000 become a "super La Nina"?

Maybe you can make a case for 2010-2011 using only MEI, but definitely not ONI.

Using ONI, the strongest Ninas are 1973-1974, 1988-1989, and 1955-1956/1975-1976/1999-2000 (3-way tie). 1973-1974 is the only one that got to -2C on ONI trimonthly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What method of grading ENSO does 2007-2008 or 1999-2000 become a "super La Nina"?

Maybe you can make a case for 2010-2011 using only MEI, but definitely not ONI.

Using ONI, the strongest Ninas are 1973-1974, 1988-1989, and 1955-1956/1975-1976/1999-2000 (3-way tie). 1973-1974 is the only one that got to -2C on ONI trimonthly.

Exactly.

Only one of those seasons had a major east coast event, which was the Jan 2000 mid atlantic system, which we apparently can't count since Georogie's hood smoked cirrus.

1955-1956 may have had one...decent season, and even 1975-1976 was respectable, but super el nino is more prone to big east coast storms.

[George001]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly.

Only one of those seasons had a major east coast event, which was the Jan 2000 mid atlantic system, which we apparently can't count since Georogie's hood smoked cirrus.

1955-1956 may have had one...decent season, and even 1975-1976 was respectable, but super el nino is more prone to big east coast storms.

 

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Firstly, SW NE did get a good deal of snow from that Jan 2016 event, and the Dec 1997 was very prolific north of Boston, regardless of what took place in your back yard. Additionally, those three la nina events were barely over the strong threshold. Secondly, you can't count one season three times. 2/3 of those la nina seasons featured no major SNE events...all three of those super el nino seasons did.
Sorry, but you're wrong. The prominent STJ in stronger el nino seasons, while not ideal for this region, is better for the prospects of major winter storm than a strong la nina regime. Additionally, el nino is more highly correlated with neg NAO, than la nina, which is another reason why it is more beneficial.

2010-2011 is the strong Nina on record going by MEI, so I would count it as a super Nina. Your other points are valid though, I focus too much on my backyard rather than the actual pattern in place when drawing my conclusions which is flawed logic. I’ll concede I was wrong about super ninas favoring more huge events than strong ninos, however I still would rather have a strong Nina. I would rather have a bunch of 6-12 type storms with cold nearby than have a super mild and snowless winter with one 2 footer that melts in 2 days.