February the climo snow month

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

In DC I agree, but in southern New England ninas are generally better. I would rather have a record strong Nina than another strong nino, those always seem to screw us.

 

http://www.solarstorms.org/Boston.html

data shows that Boston averages more snow in ninas than ninos overall.

The most favorable ENSO state for snowfall is weak el nino. I don't care what data you find. I will grant you that a super el nino is probably worse than a super la nina....not merely strong, but very strong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That chart doesn't tell the whole story, either....the structure is very important. I will take a modoki el nino regardless of strength over any la nina.

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol how many cutters mr 100 inch man have verified. When was the last time you cracked 32

I haven't had meaningful snow here since the very beginning of February. Not complaining about my snowfall numbers to date, just would enjoy a real trackable storm with a radar signature.   6" would be fine. Doesn't seem like an outlandish request...

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I haven't had meaningful snow here since the very beginning of February. Not complaining about my snowfall numbers to date, just would enjoy a real trackable storm with a radar signature.   6" would be fine. Doesn't seem like an outlandish request...

Tomorrow 

[powderfreak]

Binghamton, NY has had more snow than here...  90+ inches?  Even with half of it coming in one storm, it's been a healthy winter relative to normal for that axis from PA through southern tier of NY, into NJ/NYC and adjacent CT.

Stoked for the forum, has felt like most (or all) have had snowpack on the ground... hard to complain up here with solid snowpack for lengthy periods of time and lack of rainers.  Even though the mountain has been solidly below normal, the cold stretches and refreshes are masking the stats.  No complaints.  Lower elevations have been much closer to normal around these parts, compared to upper mountain slopes.

[CoastalWx]

Just sucks pattern sort of goes to crap now, but oh well. Maybe we can get early March to work out. Refreshers up north this week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Just sucks pattern sort of goes to crap now, but oh well. Maybe we can get early March to work out. Refreshers up north this week.

Take the Feb we had and run....the blocking stole Feb.

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That chart doesn't tell the whole story, either....the structure is very important. I will take a modoki el nino regardless of strength over any la nina.

I would take a -5 degree Celsius Nina over a moderate or stronger nino regardless of structure. 2009-2010 was supposedly modoki and that didn’t stop it from giving DC blizzard after blizzard while we got screwed. I can’t think of a single strong nino that produced an epic winter here, modoki or not. That said, I looked at another chart and it says that weak nino is the best for us out of all Enso states like you said. For my winter forecast, if I see a mod or strong nino I’m not forecasting more than 35-40 inches in Boston and that’s if every other factor is favorable. Only weak nino is good otherwise it’s congrats DC, Richmond, Baltimore, ect.

[Sn0waddict]

Seeing Bridgeport above Hartford, Boston etc. sure is something. SW CT winter FTW.

[George001]

 

This is a quote taken from the mid Atlantic board. It seems to indicate that my previous idea of the pacific being on fire destroying our winter in the east has some merit. It also gives merit to my idea of strong ninas being necessary to cool off the ocean, otherwise the jet energy coming off from the pacific will intensify so much that it will overwhelm the pattern. It would both flood the country with warmth and flatten the flow. The strong nino in 2016 screwed us not only that winter but for the next several years as well, with there being only a few good periods (during ninas) in a period of warmth. 

“Solar has been way, way off.  That last cycle was weak(as predicted due to the sun going so quiet around 2010 I think).  That definitely coincides with a lack of moderate/strong La Ninas.  I always think moderate to strong La Ninas reset the temp gradient in the equatorial Pacific.  For those of you who don't know what I am speaking of(I know Tellico does), we are used to weak El Ninos being great winter weather signals.  However, for the El Nino to be a strong winter wx signal in the East, the Sea Surface Temps(SSTs) need to be colder in the places which are not part of the El Nino.  The stronger that tempdifferential(the gradient) between the Nino and the rest of thePacific, the more likely the El Nino behaves as normal.  With SSTs above normal in much of the Pac for the past 4-5 years, the Nino climatology was been washed out.  I am hoping that this La Nina will allow the next Nino to have a stronger gradient and behave more as a Nino would.   As Tellico notes, all of this is likely tied together.  And again, the AMO cycle is only about 2/3 of the way through - maybe it will end early?  I do hold out hope that this year's unexpected -NAO cycle this winter might well be a harbinger of better winters to come.”

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I would take a -5 degree Celsius Nina over a moderate or stronger nino regardless of structure. 2009-2010 was supposedly modoki and that didn’t stop it from giving DC blizzard after blizzard while we got screwed. I can’t think of a single strong nino that produced an epic winter here, modoki or not. That said, I looked at another chart and it says that weak nino is the best for us out of all Enso states like you said. For my winter forecast, if I see a mod or strong nino I’m not forecasting more than 35-40 inches in Boston and that’s if every other factor is favorable. Only weak nino is good otherwise it’s congrats DC, Richmond, Baltimore, ect.

2009-2010 being bad here was a fluke. Why do you hate super el ninos? Look at the storm we had had in Feb 1983!!!

[Ginx snewx]

Don't put them shovels away yet. Thaw for sure but multiple shots across the bow. If spring wishes were dishes we would all be fat.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't put them shovels away yet. Thaw for sure but multiple shots across the bow. If spring wishes were dishes we would all be fat.

All the models break down the pattern by late next week.

[CoastalWx]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All the models break down the pattern by late next week.

There still might be something first week of  March, but it looks borderline. 

[Ginx snewx]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There still might be something first week of  March, but it looks borderline. 

Have to watch the 26th 27th

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have to watch the 26th 27th

Tossed. Looks like hell.

[GCWarrior]

https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
 

Looking at the obvious years of extremes one way or the other. Overall weak nino seems to be best for consistently but the extreme years really stand out. 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

Seeing Bridgeport above Hartford, Boston etc. sure is something. SW CT winter FTW.

I wrote before if one took the last 6 years alone one would think eastern New England averaged 50% more snow than western New England. 

However, if you look at the annual average snowfall is equally distributed west to east.

Couple caveats, eastern coastal sections will average less than western coastal sections due coastal huggers, long island acting as somewhat of a blocking landmass (more so for Fairfield County) etc, while western SNE also has a slight unfair advantage in elevation.

This year is just restoring average. 

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, Sn0waddict said:

Seeing Bridgeport above Hartford, Boston etc. sure is something. SW CT winter FTW.

Also don't forget Bridgeport under reported as usual.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wrote before if one took the last 6 years alone one would think eastern New England averaged 50% more snow than western New England. 

However, if you look at the annual average snowfall is equally distributed west to east.

Couple caveats, eastern coastal sections will average less than western coastal sections due coastal huggers, long island acting as somewhat of a blocking landmass (more so for Fairfield County) etc, while western SNE also has a slight unfair advantage in elevation.

This year is just restoring average. 

Eastern areas overall avg more than cstl CW CT. That's a given. Latitude and the fact they stick out into the ATL for the biggies accounts for that. Season is not over yet. I am at 43" now,

[Ginx snewx]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tossed. Looks like hell.

Ok 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Eastern areas overall avg more than cstl CW CT. That's a given. Latitude and the fact they stick out into the TAL for the biggies accounts for that. Season is not over yet. I am at 43" now,

 you are the MET so will take your word. I just used the below probably not too granular.

I just HAVE to caveat that Bridgeport seems to represent all of coastal SW CT. So what u see there in SW CT u have to add at least 15% to the annual average to be correct Blizzard be of 96 Bridgeport 15 Fairfield Norwalk etc all 27. Blizzard of 2006 Bridgeport 12 Fairfield 22 Norwalk 20) can go on and on frustrating, and the NWS used those BS Bridgeport totals to make maps like below. 

[Ginx snewx]

Para Euro for the 27th

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

 you are the MET so will take your word. I just used the below probably not too granular.

I just HAVE to caveat that Bridgeport seems to represent all of coastal SW CT. So what u see there in SW CT u have to add at least 15% to the annual average to be correct Blizzard be of 96 Bridgeport 15 Fairfield Norwalk etc all 27. Blizzard of 2006 Bridgeport 12 Fairfield 22 Norwalk 20) can go on and on frustrating, and the NWS used those BS Bridgeport totals to make maps like below. 

I know Will did the averages out in a nicely detailed map so he can post it. I'm pretty sure BOS averages more than even Danbury or close to it. One storm this year in a borderline airmass doesn't really change things. You really gain snow amounts quickly near 42N. If we had a more typical Nina behavior, you guys probably would be gardening down there.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Para Euro for the 27th

Dung.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ok 

Para is the only one feasible and has no support because that model is trash and too cold. 

[NorEastermass128]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 you are the MET so will take your word. I just used the below probably not too granular.

I just HAVE to caveat that Bridgeport seems to represent all of coastal SW CT. So what u see there in SW CT u have to add at least 15% to the annual average to be correct Blizzard be of 96 Bridgeport 15 Fairfield Norwalk etc all 27. Blizzard of 2006 Bridgeport 12 Fairfield 22 Norwalk 20) can go on and on frustrating, and the NWS used those BS Bridgeport totals to make maps like below. 

That’s low...certainly too low for Boston’s immediate suburbs. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

That’s low...certainly too low for Boston’s immediate suburbs. 

It has no detail. 25-50" category. LOL. OK.

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It has no detail. 25-50" category. LOL. OK.

Well, it’s Burlington, VT centric, so I guess all the attention to detail is up there. Lazy depiction down in SNE. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dung.

We watch