Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s also placement and magnitude too. But if you look at general NAO states, the big boys have had a -NAO. It is true though that overall the correlation weakens in NNE in terms of what base state of the NAO matters for seasonal snowfall. thank you very much ... wonderin' when someone might hit on that - It's not a 'blocking vs no blocking' question. Of course not. There are multi-variate circumstantial/conditional influences there ... You could have a PF to Phinn axis of evil, 30" juggernaut in any SD of blocking depending on what's going on to offset destructive interference, or adding to constructive ones. It may be that -3 west based NAOs are harder to do it.. .vice versa the other way or whatever, but there's no on or off about it - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Nice find! Joni did not age well. A heavy smoker and survived a ruptured brain aneurysm. "age well" hahaha ...wtf. The woman's pushin' 80, Jerry - how well is she supposed to age - jeez 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah this year we had some bad luck too. Seemed like confluence was just enough to shear out systems coming from the Plains and southern US. The true arctic cold was really only the last two weeks and driven through the west and plains. But you can look at it alternatively. The confluence also helped reduce the cutter potential. There’s a good chance that without the confluence, storms would have been a lot milder for New England. I agree, this winter left some on the table considering the pattern. A great example of bad luck is 2/1, I got about 8 inches but just a 30 min drive to the NW and there’s 18 inches of snow. My area wasn’t even the area to get screwed over the most, Boston got like 2 inches and just 10 miles to the NW had nearly 2 feet, thats about as sharp a gradient you can get. That’s just plain bad luck, in my opinion 9/10 winters with similar atmospheric drivers to this one would have SNE getting hammered with 70+ inches of snow (except maybe the cape, r/s lines are extremely hard to avoid there). The polar vortex was just a bit too far west, but it was close. It’s not like the last 2 years where it was sitting over the North Pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, George001 said: I agree, this winter left some on the table considering the pattern. A great example of bad luck is 2/1, I got about 8 inches but just a 30 min drive to the NW and there’s 18 inches of snow. My area wasn’t even the area to get screwed over the most, Boston got like 2 inches and just 10 miles to the NW had nearly 2 feet, thats about as sharp a gradient you can get. That’s just plain bad luck, in my opinion 9/10 winters with similar atmospheric drivers to this one would have SNE getting hammered with 70+ inches of snow (except maybe the cape, r/s lines are extremely hard to avoid there). The polar vortex was just a bit too far west, but it was close. It’s not like the last 2 years where it was sitting over the North Pole. Well that was just not a good setup, I don’t attribute it to bad luck per se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, dendrite said: It's amazing how nice a 30F sunny day feels even this time of year. I'm all for a couple more biggies, but please sprinkle some 50F sunny days in between. TIA Today was the first day I noticed the solar gain. Even at temps solidly below freezing (max of 26F, dew of 5F), snowpacked pavement was getting torched and melting. Fist time of the season seeing melting on pavement in sunshine while the snowpack itself stays cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 The differences in these two iterations of the GFS is becoming embarrassing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The differences in these two iterations of the GFS is becoming embarrassing: But you’re comparing op runs out to hr 384. I mean that’s like comparing 2 ensemble members. The para at 00z did crap itself for the 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 hours ago, weathafella said: No George you miss my point. 2nd year big ninas are most often terrible winters here. Poppycock, Spring predictability barrier is real https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/why-enso-forecasters-shouldn’t-just-take-their-ball-and-go-home-during Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But you’re comparing op runs out to hr 384. I mean that’s like comparing 2 ensemble members. The para at 00z did crap itself for the 27. I could have shown the 240 hr totals which are almost as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Big Ninas are generally hostile, anyway....that is an indisputable fact. Least favorable ENSO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: "age well" hahaha ...wtf. The woman's pushin' 80, Jerry - how well is she supposed to age - jeez The picture I posted is the best she’s looked in years tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Poppycock, Spring predictability barrier is real https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/why-enso-forecasters-shouldn’t-just-take-their-ball-and-go-home-during What exactly is poppycock? George says next year is big Nina. It that happens ratter likelihood goes way up given it would be year 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 minute ago, weathafella said: What exactly is poppycock? George says next year is big Nina. It that happens ratter likelihood goes way up given it would be year 2. George saying big Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Hung out up in Heath this afternoon with some besties, I was quite impressed with the snow @ 1500’. This is a full SW facing, sloped yard and it had a solid 18 inch snow depth. Definitely more snow there than at Berkshire East in Charlemont. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Big Ninas are generally hostile, anyway....that is an indisputable fact. Least favorable ENSO state. In DC I agree, but in southern New England ninas are generally better. I would rather have a record strong Nina than another strong nino, those always seem to screw us. http://www.solarstorms.org/Boston.html data shows that Boston averages more snow in ninas than ninos overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Models might be bringing back the end of the week storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 55 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: George saying big Nina Yes I agree. But my point to him is of it plays out like that few of us would be happy l. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 49 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Hung out up in Heath this afternoon with some besties, I was quite impressed with the snow @ 1500’. This is a full SW facing, sloped yard and it had a solid 18 inch snow depth. Definitely more snow there than at Berkshire East in Charlemont. Nice. Ice fishing day today. Sun felt great reflecting off the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 16 minutes ago, George001 said: In DC I agree, but in southern New England ninas are generally better. I would rather have a record strong Nina than another strong nino, those always seem to screw us. http://www.solarstorms.org/Boston.html data shows that Boston averages more snow in ninas than ninos overall. What is the average Boston snow for strong Nina vs strong nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Definitely need some snow up here in the North Country after the sleet storm. The pack is kinda crusty and gross in spots. Been nothing but moose fart dust for weeks. Need a solid 6-10 here. Models are not encouraging. Seems dry for a while and then a parade of warm inland runners take Old Man Winter out behind the woodshed and murder him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, weathafella said: What is the average Boston snow for strong Nina vs strong nino? according to this chart, Boston averages around 40 in strong ninas and low 30s in Strong ninos. Weak ninos are actually really good here, but moderate and strong ninos suck here. That’s why it’s weird to me to see the strong Nina=ratter idea being thrown around on a New England forum, our chances in a strong Nina are around the same as our chances during an enso neutral winter. The only enso states that signal below-well below average are mod-strong ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, George001 said: according to this chart, Boston averages around 40 in strong ninas and low 30s in Strong ninos. Weak ninos are actually really good here, but moderate and strong ninos suck here. That’s why it’s weird to me to see the strong Nina=ratter idea being thrown around on a New England forum, our chances in a strong Nina are around the same as our chances during an enso neutral winter. The only enso states that signal below-well below average are mod-strong ninos. I’m not sure the sample size is bog enough. But in general I agree on a one off I’d take Nina but the second year is traditionally bad in strong ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Definitely need some snow up here in the North Country after the sleet storm. The pack is kinda crusty and gross in spots. Been nothing but moose fart dust for weeks. Need a solid 6-10 here. Models are not encouraging. Seems dry for a while and then a parade of warm inland runners take Old Man Winter out behind the woodshed and murder him. Bitch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Bitch Seen that map all month. Maybe this time it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Seen that map all month. Maybe this time it will verify. Lol how many cutters mr 100 inch man have verified. When was the last time you cracked 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 18 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’m not sure the sample size is bog enough. But in general I agree on a one off I’d take Nina but the second year is traditionally bad in strong ones. We may be going for a second year. Let’s get 4 in a row for Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 My southern exposure front yard , burned through 5” of fluff the last two days with high temp in low 30’s (20s most of the day) to expose some grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Seems like its been a dud of a winter but we're not far from average, maybe those above ones skewed my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 Love driving around here this time of year with all the different microclimates. The sheltered northern valleys have that really deep winter look. Snow was actually blowing across the lake this morning. Sun felt great and the views spectacular. It always sucks knowing we are in the last gasps. Great December until the cutter and a top notch February. Hopefully we can have a blockbuster to wrap it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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