NW_of_GYX Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Nothing is worse than 40 to 49. Either snow or 50s plus and sun please. For you sure. I'll take a few days in the 40s in early March to melt some snow off the eaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 I'd like to see the EPS full suite of derivatives ( teleconnctors...) before signing off on March threats - That suggestion is diametrical to the last 10 days of GEFs trend, as in 'opposite' , frankly. Which are not just persistent and thus represent high continuity, but are so concerted it is hard to separate the individual members in the curves ... +1AO/-1PNA/+1NAO ... by the time the first week of March is underway. ... perhaps the EPS is completely in support of winter fantasies into March - I dunno. Haven't seen those numbers; and by that, one would not care so much to hear someone's lensing interpretation, rather see their EOF derived index modes and modalities. The GFS operational run's daily synoptic morphology in recent day's of runs has become so increasingly detached from its own family telecon suggestions, it is as though they are no longer apart of the same geophysical genome. Like it is a new model with no ensembles and completely alien - I think it gets more and more suspicious that they dropped coefficient seeds in that thing to try and goose it's accuracy for shit they cannot fix and it's f'ing it up... Sarcasm aside... LOL, is not exactly doing my case any favors - no... Because .. when one is is dealing in postulation and speculation of future patterns based upon a rather arcane approach of balancing trends, modulated with 'synergistic' foresight ... that is not going to resonate very well in the average reader. People need to actually see it on the charts. The problem is, the concept arithmetic ...sumpin' like, ( ( La Nina spring + HC expasion + ) / 2 ( +1AO/-1PNA/+1NAO ) ) / 3 does not equal the operational Euro... to put it nicely. Definitely not the GFS ... beyond D 8 or 9 ... The GFS extended is exceptionally out of phase ... These aspects above - I am not making this shit up. Those are factually what we are dealing with, as present climate inference, plus the teleconnectors then mapping over top. That is a constructive interference at hemispheric/planetary scales... If at some point in the guidance, once some physical exertion thresholds gets kissed .. triggering this explodes into the warmest spring ever r some crazy thing - that would almost be understandable given the above leading colors. ... Climate change... Siberian methane hole punching through the permafrost ... hahahaha... alright, alright I'm completely joking on this latter stuff... But these tendencies to bulge the SE ridge as of late they're like 'fore-shocks' Sometimes when the higher resolution, supposedly more dependable, operational versions agree ( cross-guidance)... their disparate ensemble means will eventually collapse in favor. That "might" account for the index part of the crude formula above. But, the terminating SSW circuitry with the early January event/ .. normal gestation of those, does time the AO recovery by march when using historical inference on those events of the past - so that offsets that assmption. It's like no matter how one looks at this, it's warm... Yet the operational runs - this could be the greatest disconnect I have ever seen pending those EPS values... Despite all this rhetoric and prose... I don't have any skin in the game ...I don't care if it doesn't materialize a warm seasonal progression March. I don't care either - well..that's not entirely honest. I don't want to go through March and April NE cruelty as a lucid member of human sentience ...no. But, I don't care if this speculation does not materialize. I'm really more into it for the adventure and practice - and from where I am sitting... 10 days ...maaaaybe 14 if we nod to momentum.. I remember, what year was that...I think it was 2014? There was a big modeled ocean bomb that would have been 50" of snow and 100 mph wind gusts ... James and George001 moderated the press briefing between FEMA and NCEP, while their dads were super duper impressed ... Ann Hathaway even called James, rumor has it.... That storm stayed too far east to really clobber the area, but it did nick up as far as SE zones and the Cape. The cold air that was nasty and persistent that late winter going into March... wrapped around the storm and evacuated out with it. The curve of the month sloped up at 40 degrees on temperature graphs from that point on ... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 29 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Definitely that aspect. I have a couple protected spots on the north side of the house to compare better to him but he really has a great location for measuring up near the ice gulch path where the land kinda dips downwards almost into a shady bowl. Yeah I'm more or less curious how much juice you have in there. Not making you go and take a sample..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 26 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: I'm just not seeing this full blown torch that everyone here is convinced about. Some highs in the 40's sure. It's not a full blown torch in the sense that we're getting 65F+ in early March which sometimes happens....but prob several days in the 40s with a select couple that could be in the 50s (maybe near 60F if we go SW wind and clear things out on day?)...EPS shows any 55-60 potential to be around 3/1....prob not up in your CAD mecca, but mabe some other spots more susceptible. Pattern goes back to closer to normal behind that. This could all change of course....its 10+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Longest post ever . Record set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 I think I would want to see better blocking, and also some ridging into AK to tilt the cold into the US. But, after the first few days, some of that may happen. That's why I mentioned it not being bad...although probably not what I would look for in a wintry March. I just think it might be something where things need to be timed right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Longest post ever . Record set No way....you have the right person, but not post. He's done better than that- 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Longest post ever . Record set I just read the bold for the highlights. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 well... the twitter version combining the La Nina climate and pre-existing planetary footprints, with telecon do not equal the operational Euro... to put it nicely. Definitely not the GFS ... beyond D 8 or 9 ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 There appears to be a hurricane on one of the 06z GEFS members for the first week of March. That'd be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: There appears to be a hurricane on one of the 06z GEFS members for the first week of March. That'd be cool. scratch that, appears to just be a run of the mill 944mb noreaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 North trend starting on the GFS ? The confluence is strong though. Trended north compared to 6z. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Well fellas....heading to Naples,FL end of next week. Taking care of wife’s parents who will come down the day after we get there. I’m looking forward to warmth which looks good there! Returning for one more run maybe in mid March. Flight to and from should be a pain with all the PPE we’ll be donning......actually mask, face shield, gloves so not terrible but a lot more than normal. Incidentally round trip air for both of us combined is $250. Crazy cheap! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Models pretty uneventful...classic la nina like ending to the season, potentially. Out with a wimper- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Models pretty uneventful...classic la nina like ending to the season, potentially. Out with a wimper- Monday’s 1-3” might be about it . Wolf agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Monday’s 1-3” might be about it . Wolf agrees I think the 1-3" is more NH/VT and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Texas could be low or even middle 80s by D5 ... ...with ice damage in yards... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Not a warm pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not a warm pattern Yea, worst possible outcome. Very little shot of appreciable snowfall, so congrats on 43 and P Cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, worst possible outcome. Very little shot of appreciable snowfall, so congrats on 43 and P Cloudy. Its March , not April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not a warm pattern Mmm the "pattern" is more than a snap shot of the surface, one day, that happens to suffice what one wants - ...wish it were that easy. If it were, the enduring winter enthusiasts just need look at a single daily chart out of the first cold snap in November and up - we're all set 'till next June. The pattern is more than this cold in New Englan/NP ... There are trends that are being ignored and probably it's futile to try and expose those to people because the selection tendency makes an aspect equally coherent: they won't allow themselves to see anyway. The 500 mb is more indicative of the pattern, btw ... I understand what you meant, but...with two deep troughs at that time, digging into the Great Basin out west, and a SE ridge that is heavily favored by a La Nina base footprint hemisphere ... HC ...climate change and fast flow seasonal trend ... +AO/-PNA/+NAO... plus, said SE is growing at an insidious slow rate almost unnoticed every day in the guidance... the pattern is in fact more like D(pattern) that you are looking at, and is thus not dependable really at all.. The foresaid collage of factors really probably suggests that the cold aspects are likely over-done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 As much as I love snow, I'm ready for the spring warmth.. Being stuck in most of the time with a 3 year old because of covid is driving me crazy.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its March , not April Good luck, and god speed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good luck, and god speed. ... perhaps more succinct than what I just explained to that individual - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 EPS def show potential for warmth in early March....doesn't mean 65-70F, but a change from what we've been seeing. Prob some potential for 50+. It does look to cool off again a bit after that first few days, but nothing "cold". More like seasonable. That's when we're most likely to see a winter threat. Prob should start a March thread for this talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Monday’s 1-3” might be about it . Wolf agrees Nah..not buying it’s over at all. Way Too early to say that. But to each their own. The snow will be back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nah..not buying it’s over at all. Way Too early to say that. But to each their own. The snow will be back. Yeah definitely not over.. It will warm up but we'll have more snow it's only mid February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nah..not buying it’s over at all. Way Too early to say that. But to each their own. The snow will be back. Climo obviously dictates that its not over....just my hunch that a lot of sports probably end up with like several more inches after tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: As much as I love snow, I'm ready for the spring warmth.. Being stuck in most of the time with a 3 year old because of covid is driving me crazy.. This has been intolerable ...yet tolerated. I've taken to coining this a Pandemic interment camp. No 3-year old but I can imagine. I have 8 sisters and no brothers, and they all had sons.. which made me officially a swaying nephew-tree. I mean, you pull up curb side in front of the house... you swear the kids merely found out I was coming and before I even arrived they musta been scrambling to outfit in their climbing harnesses and rappelling gear ... After an hour of it, each kid may as well be a tire swing with a baby elephant etc... I'm miserably sad inside for having missed the opportunity to be a dad ... sometimes. I just take a moment to reflect upon ankle biting and rib counting contests ..screaming at one end, vs tantrums at the other along the "adorable" spectrum. Suddenly one does not feel so bad. anyway... The two warmest springs I personally recall are 1976 and 2012 ... both where immediately preceded by light to moderate La Ninas 1976 -1.6 -1.2 -0.7 -0.5 2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 I think there is some shot that this sort of lead-in serves ... La Nina springs have a tendency to flip pretty warmer than normal, and though these are only two years and were rather extreme, the normalized regression is warmer than normal as correlation anyway. 1976 April ... Four consecutive days above 90 F at UML station. 2012 ...not sure about intra-monthly records but... as a whole many climate sites soared to some +8 to +12 above normal. Difficult for that particular month to do that. Anyway, as I've been advertising with no buyers ( LOL ) ... the "intangibles" don't really favor cool either. I guess if it doesn't manifest and we end up doing the same with all these large and mid teleconnector scaled signals, land air and sea... working to punch a warm ticket... what can we say - it is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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