CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: If early next week goes well, can snowcover do work there? I feel like we hear that a lot, but the synoptics usually don't care about that in SNE. If it's a weak low sometimes the cold snowpack can hold back the warming in the interior, but if you are getting a modest storm moving into the Great Lakes and intensifying, snow won't do anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yeah, I'd much rather have the mud holes and water bars crossing the trails when out riding. Hens before sleds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I feel like we hear that a lot, but the synoptics usually don't care about that in SNE. If it's a weak low sometimes the cold snowpack can hold back the warming in the interior, but if you are getting a modest storm moving into the Great Lakes and intensifying, snow won't do anything. Deep snow pack seems to help more for things like coastal fronts. If you have an arctic airmass over deep pack, a CF usually has a much harder time penetrating inland....that low level molasses just provides more resistance with a deep pack. But yeah, it's not gonna help us if there is a deep H5 low ripping a low into BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Deep snow pack seems to help more for things like coastal fronts. If you have an arctic airmass over deep pack, a CF usually has a much harder time penetrating inland....that low level molasses just provides more resistance with a deep pack. But yeah, it's not gonna help us if there is a deep H5 low ripping a low into BUF. Yeah those scenarios with a weaker low sort of moving overhead or west and sometimes winds stay nrly longer with the natural refrigeration. Maybe a weak meso low on the CF. Hopefully that deal on the 6th can become more of a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah those scenarios with a weaker low sort of moving overhead or west and sometimes winds stay nrly longer with the natural refrigeration. Maybe a weak meso low on the CF. Hopefully that deal on the 6th can become more of a SWFE. I think we'll want that 2/1-2/2 event to really take its time moving out....that will help shove the next one south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Is tip planning on making a thread today? Said something about it yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I think we see a warmer couple of days with some showers quick precip then we reset for a very active period. Pretty common in Feb before a good period. There is plenty of cold air as Bob alluded to. Good times. First things first though. This reminds me of how some were playing it mid-dec. Sure would like to believe things are going to change, but not sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: Is tip planning on making a thread today? Said something about it yesterday He's probably been writing it ever since. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 27 minutes ago, dendrite said: Hens before sleds Hens on sleds........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He's probably been writing it ever since. He bangs out those 10 page posts in 3 minutes he says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: He bangs out those 10 page posts in 3 minutes he says He lies lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: He bangs out those 10 page posts in 3 minutes he says 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He lies lol Sneak a peek at the Iconic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sneak a peek at the Iconic Congrats, Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 gfs coming in hot and heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Bostonseminole said: gfs coming in hot and heavy Was about to say it looks sloppy at hr 150... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Let's party . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I think 06z was better....looks disjointed at H5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think 06z was better....looks disjointed at H5. Yep. But there's going to be a storm, we know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Was about to say it looks sloppy at hr 150... yeah, qpf is still there and impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yep. But there's going to be a storm, we know that. Ok....but the mechanics this run looks like a 10" over 30 hour type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 this could end up 12"+ region wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ok....but the mechanics this run looks like a 10" over 30 hour type deal. At this point, fine with me. It would feel like more with the duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I guess when I hear "hot and heavy" it implies a better trend....which is what threw me off. Yes, timing is consistent for a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Meh on that run verbatim here. Rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Still to far out to get invested in any scenario, Just following the ensembles for now, Wait until late week on the Op model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess when I hear "hot and heavy" it implies a better trend....which is what threw me off. Yes, timing is consistent for a decent storm. well I don't look at every run, just looking at the 12z, looks good enough for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ok....but the mechanics this run looks like a 10" over 30 hour type deal. ORh is at 2 feet so far... nice CF east inflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 12z GFSv16 much better upper air look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I guess when I hear "hot and heavy" it implies a better trend....which is what threw me off. Yes, timing is consistent for a decent storm. It was a little more messy @H5 then the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Meh on that run verbatim here. Rainy Its because the dynamics are pedestrian. Noise at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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