CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Long range EPS isn't that bad. Might have some chances in Morch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Long range EPS isn't that bad. Might have some chances in Morch. What is the over-under on when guidance starts to shear the shit out of that bomb next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the over-under on when guidance starts to shear the shit out of that bomb next week? What bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is the over-under on when guidance starts to shear the shit out of that bomb next week? Just now, CoastalWx said: What bomb? I guess we know the answer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: What bomb? Whatever it is that drops over a foot of snow here. I haven't looked at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Whatever it is that drops over a foot of snow here. I haven't looked at it. Oh the 27th? That 26-27 is something to watch. If nothing else maybe a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Whatever it is that drops over a foot of snow here. I haven't looked at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's a repeating mantra I'm reading on this forum and it's not right really ... The system bombing does nothing up stream/ after the fact. The "slowing" of the flow begins with whole scale meridian curvature - western ridging over N/America. That storm can bomb it's way across the N/Atlantic it has nothing to do with what is orchestrating from the lower OV-MA NE regions after the fact. Im not sure I understand completely what you are saying, so correct me if I’m wrong. What I got out of this was my idea that we need a storm bombing out in the Atlantic to fix the flat flow problem isn’t correct, and it is the pacific side that is the problem here. From what I am seeing on the pacific side we have 2 competing factors, there is a strong La Niña in place to help cool off the oceans, which has allowed arctic air masses to enter the country and come south without much modification via pacific air. However right now the polar vortex is too far west, the energy rotating around the polar vortex is crashing into the west coast, not allowing western ridging over North America to develop. To fix this flat flow problem that is leading to shredding of storms we need the polar vortex to be farther east. I thought things were fine at least in New England unless the polar vortex was over the North Pole, but it appears that if we want something huge we need the polar vortex to be in central or eastern Canada. I’m not going to give up just yet though, I have been reading that there might be 1 more disruption to knock the polar vortex away from Alaska, and the key will be where does it get displaced to? If it’s over the North Pole we are getting an early spring, but if we can get it over central or eastern Canada we could get an epic March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Oh the 27th? That 26-27 is something to watch. If nothing else maybe a SWFE. Lets see how long it takes the models to realize it will be castrated on approach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 30 minutes ago, George001 said: Im not sure I understand completely what you are saying, so correct me if I’m wrong. What I got out of this was my idea that we need a storm bombing out in the Atlantic to fix the flat flow problem isn’t correct, and it is the pacific side that is the problem here. From what I am seeing on the pacific side we have 2 competing factors, there is a strong La Niña in place to help cool off the oceans, which has allowed arctic air masses to enter the country and come south without much modification via pacific air. However right now the polar vortex is too far west, the energy rotating around the polar vortex is crashing into the west coast, not allowing western ridging over North America to develop. To fix this flat flow problem that is leading to shredding of storms we need the polar vortex to be farther east. I thought things were fine at least in New England unless the polar vortex was over the North Pole, but it appears that if we want something huge we need the polar vortex to be in central or eastern Canada. I’m not going to give up just yet though, I have been reading that there might be 1 more disruption to knock the polar vortex away from Alaska, and the key will be where does it get displaced to? If it’s over the North Pole we are getting an early spring, but if we can get it over central or eastern Canada we could get an epic March. bold 1 ...essentially correct for the issues at hand bold 2 ...La Nina does not cause the Pacific to buckle or not buckle the flow over N/A - doesn't work that way. La Nina is a long term, oceanic -atmospheric coupled teleconnetor that correlates to pattern forms - but those forms are not instructed by it. The patterns result from an ambrosia of different influences... It can augment patterns and or favor results, but it there is no physical circuitry between "cool off the oceans which allowed arctic air masses' ... that's unfortunately ( don't mean to be rude here ) gibberish bold 3/4 ... I had to give up mid way trying to parse out that dizzying site spec of atmospheric architectural requirements in order to build a cyclone - lol. Just simplify it for now: western ridge ... trough amplifying through the lakes ... in a flow that is not anomalously fast. Vary that some... sure... but if you stress any one of those constructs too much....Beyond that, for winter enthusiasts... obviously one would like cold air in place over New England... while also, not having heights over 580 DM across N. Florida... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 35 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 4-6 in SNE. 12+ in Jersey. don't forget: 1-3 in CNE/NNE 22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: George of the jungle just pitched a tent 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: don't forget: 1-3 in CNE/NNE George of the jungle just pitched a tent Dendy would love this. Feet of snow for him with rain over my noggin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, George001 said: I just took a look at the long range on the main models I use for my analysis (Euro Canadian and Navy) and I this is what I see: Both threats need work, but the main takeaway here is at least the models have a low for both threats. That is helpful. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Oh the 27th? That 26-27 is something to watch. If nothing else maybe a SWFE. Very little ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Very little ensemble support. Yep ensembles want to squash the storm because they believe the flow will be fast. Operational runs have a more amplified system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Someone want to fire up the Morch thread. this month is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, George001 said: Yep ensembles want to squash the storm because they believe the flow will be fast. Operational runs have a more amplified system. 6 to 12 just fell from PA NJ to RI in Tips fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Very little ensemble support. I see some evidence of something. There might be timing issues with the modeling of low pressure centers making it a strung out deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 It is funny Phin with 90 inches trying to chum up with the poor Maniacs on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6 to 12 just fell from PA NJ to RI in Tips fast flow. Right, but the shredder is problematic for the vast majority of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 it seems like the shredder caps the ceiling, but doesn’t stop us from getting frequent 4-8/6-12 type events. It’s extremely problematic if you want a 2ft+ blizzard though. Fortunately it looks like it isn’t going to last for the rest of winter according to the long range data, so we should have our chances at least in the early part of March before we warm up. edit- nevermind, while pattern is more amplified on the european guidance the polar vortex is over the North Pole so it torches us. We need changes to that, otherwise winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, George001 said: it seems like the shredder caps the ceiling, but doesn’t stop us from getting frequent 4-8/6-12 type events. It’s extremely problematic if you want a 2ft+ blizzard though. Fortunately it looks like it isn’t going to last for the rest of winter according to the long range data, so we should have our chances at least in the early part of March before we warm up. The N of RT 2 crowd is still waiting for our frequent 4-8” events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, but the shredder is problematic for the vast majority of this subforum. The shredder pattern is a bit like an unmanned firehose. You have to thread the needle. We just had a system jackpot Ottawa before today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Looks like we start to warm up too going forward, I'm going to start shoveling off the lawn and throw it in the street on these sunny days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: It is funny Phin with 90 inches trying to chum up with the poor Maniacs on the coastal plain. 112” actually. below average is what it is no matter the location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Next week starting to look pretty mild. 50 and sun in spots? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 112” actually. below average is what it is no matter the location. How fast you get acclimated. I’ve sensed some disappointment in those 100-inches lately even coming straight from Maryland lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, powderfreak said: How fast you get acclimated. I’ve sensed some disappointment in those 100-inches lately even coming straight from Maryland. It's the sense of what could have been and also the many, many near misses on the models. It's incredibly easy to get feet of digital snow here given the climate. Every slug of moisture seems to fizzle by the time it gets here, however. It would be nice to have one of these stretches with a couple decent SWFEs verify. Been modeled all winter. Also, my area is beating every other spot in NH because I cashed in on the three big synoptic storms (early December, mid January, early February). Places that underperformed on those events are have a crappy winter because it's been kinda dead for long periods between those events. Like Alex, for example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Now, The Op GFS has 3 cutters in the next 15 days, I bet we can lock them in place. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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