dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It seems we have been discussing @Typhoon Tip 's fast flow meat grinder for several winters now. I dunno' maybe it just seems that way but I can't readily recall the last slow moving juggernaut storm we had that gave us all some love. Its funny you mention this, Just got off the phone with a buddy of mine that has a place in Bridgeton and Eustis where i stay when i ride, We were talking about this next week and this winter in general and how its similar to last winter up here, He's originally from Wrentham, Still has a place there, And says the plowing he's had to pay for this year is killing him..................lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We have 2 threats next week BFD 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: So far for 12z. CMC great lakes cutter. Old GFS North Carolina crusher New GFS MA special. Euro?? We shall see?? EURO = rain. Snow NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO = rain. Snow NNE. verbatim that run. but if you aren't watching the 26th period, what is the point of even being here? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO = rain. Snow NNE. For now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO = rain. Snow NNE. Actually it was DAM close to a big solution. CNE gets 6 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Go time it will be a mid atlantic storm, Lock it in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Go time it will be a mid atlantic storm, Lock it in. So easy to toss. Models have shown that same precip distribution several times this winter and it has never even come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 I just took a look at the long range on the main models I use for my analysis (Euro Canadian and Navy) and I this is what I see: Right now the Miller B threat on the 22nd is low probably as it develops too late based on what I am seeing on the Navy Euro and Canadian. The 26th storm threat is cutting to the west on the Canadian, on the Euro it appears to have some front end before going over to rain as the low passes to our west, and the navy appears to have plenty of precip with lots of warm air ramming into a cold airmass. Extrapolated, my analysis is that the navy would likely be a more euro type solution with a front end and then changeover to rain as the low looks like it is moving west. Both threats need work, but the main takeaway here is at least the models have a low for both threats. The risk with the 22nd is it develops too late and crushes Downeast Maine and Nova Scotia, and with the 26th the risk is like with Mondays system it tracks too far west, bringing the warm air in and changing us over to rain. The key will be if we can get the 22nd low to dig more, that will result in earlier cyclogenesis, bringing the risk of blizzard conditions for a few hours to Eastern Mass as well as Downeast Maine and Nova Scotia. This will not be a Feb 2013 situation due to a more progressive flow, and the storm will likely be a fast mover. However fast movers can still produce decent amounts of snow, and more importantly if this storm undergoes earlier cyclogenesis and peaks farther south that will buckle the flow, making it so instead of being west to east it is more SW to NE, giving future storms room to dig as the northern stream energy stops crashing into the west coast and instead drops into the middle portion of the country. This would allow storms to amplify instead of getting shredded by the flow, leading to miller Bs redeveloping farther south, undergo earlier cyclogenesis, and move slower, giving us the potential for historic slow moving blizzard that we haven’t had in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Euro looked great here for 2/26, but it was close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro looked great here for 2/26, but it was close. Lol you and Phins revenge. Hope Dendrite gets smoked all next week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Extend that heaviest SE a bit to get Cape Ann in on the revenge. Local min here for seasonal snowfall to date. I think Nahant has more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol you and Phins revenge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, PhineasC said: So easy to toss. Models have shown that same precip distribution several times this winter and it has never even come close. I'm done with these 7 day model jacks, Not a one has worked out, None, 0, Nada. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Vertabraim this is not a good euro run, the flow is too fast which won’t allow storms to amplify or slow down. We need some help via the 22nd storm bombing out more to buckle the flow. Even if this happens to late to give Eastern Mass a blizzard, If it can amplify to the 960s even if it’s in Nova Scotia, a storm that big will change the pattern to a more amplified one. We have the cold in place to get a historic blizzard, but this run the flow is west to east and that won’t work if you are looking for something big. If we can get the changes we need the 22nd, even if it’s not enough to bring snow to eastern mass, then I will get more excited about the 26th. I really don’t like the setup on that euro run even if it has a big snowstorm, the pattern isn’t right with an extremely fast flow. I don’t buy that snowmap one bit with the flow like that, if that doesn’t change I would be shocked to see more than 2 inches in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I'm done with these 7 day model jacks, Not a one has worked out, None, 0, Nada. This is probably the peak of how it will look. All downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: This is probably the peak of how it will look. All downhill from here. Its been downhill since Boxing Day, I won't invest anytime into this like i didn't for Today, Tomorrow or Monday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Run the whole run lol. Probably feet for dendy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, George001 said: Vertabraim this is not a good euro run, the flow is too fast which won’t allow storms to amplify or slow down. We need some help via the 22nd storm bombing out more to buckle the flow. Even if this happens to late to give Eastern Mass a blizzard, If it can amplify to the 960s even if it’s in Nova Scotia, a storm that big will change the pattern to a more amplified one. We have the cold in place to get a historic blizzard, but this run the flow is west to east and that won’t work if you are looking for something big. If we can get the changes we need the 22nd, even if it’s not enough to bring snow to eastern mass, then I will get more excited about the 26th. I really don’t like the setup on that euro run even if it has a big snowstorm, the pattern isn’t right with an extremely fast flow. That's a repeating mantra I'm reading on this forum and it's not right really ... The system bombing does nothing up stream/ after the fact. The "slowing" of the flow begins with whole scale meridian curvature - western ridging over N/America. That storm can bomb it's way across the N/Atlantic it has nothing to do with what is orchestrating from the lower OV-MA NE regions after the fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Run the whole run lol. Probably feet for dendy I know....I just wanted a snap shot of that event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This is probably the peak of how it will look. All downhill from here. Just shook,the guy with 90 inches is shook. Lol eventually you will learn your climo. Next 6 weeks is prime time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Run the whole run lol. Probably feet for dendy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lol oh how we pray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Put a decimal in there and it has a chance to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, dendrite said: Put a decimal in there and it has a chance to verify. Yeah... like here --> . 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 then whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Put a decimal in there and it has a chance to verify. Its comical, I have seen these day 7-10 clown maps all winter and i already know how it ends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Yup... hypothesis confirmed... The D10 Euro extrapolates to at least a thaw if not seasonal page turner 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its comical, I have seen these day 7-10 clown maps all winter and i already know how it ends. 4-6 in SNE. 12+ in Jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup... hypothesis confirmed... The D10 Euro extrapolates to at least a thaw if not seasonal page turner Good. I'm ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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