February the climo snow month

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I smell the snow. Think we sneak in another good event here. 

Ensembles are quite amped on the 2/26 threat. I'm not buying a mid-atlantic snowstorm yet on that look. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are quite amped on the 2/26 threat. I'm not buying a mid-atlantic snowstorm yet on that look. 

You tossing the 22nd for hills?

[George001]

 

hopefully that meat grinder pattern ray talked about goes away by the 26th. It’s there on the models right now but it doesn’t look like it would take much to make that threat better. 

[Ginx snewx]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So now that we have gotten that out of the way....let me add some affirmation to your statement.

Yes, it will deliver somewhere, it just won't be here-

Maybe it will that's a long way off. New Euro 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You tossing the 22nd for hills?

It';s shearing out...so I'm not high on that one...maybe it trends back,.

[Typhoon Tip]

Been elucidating ( or trying to...) that point for a couple of months now frankly: the recurring theme to diminish amplitude relaying outer range aspects ... inside of ~ 5 ..6 day leads.

It's been variable amounts of damping ... but always has - never the other direction ( interesting). Sometimes partial, sometimes to the point where once inside 48 hours ... a given original D8 .. 9, reasonably consistent, thus  suggestively  trackable presence in the flow ... may not even be detectable. The immediate objective response to that is pretty obvious - 'who thinks a day 8 or day 9 feature would verify' 

But  ..neh, - this is worse than that.

I'm not sure if that is very normal or abnormal for the recent last 10 or so year of modeling. It's something I have noticed as an excessive frustration this particular year, though. I dunno...maybe something about the hemisphere super-structure/ambience that exposes something they are 'fixing' into the models - maybe to force an over assessment of everything. ...Maybe it is liability protectionism to add 30% vitality to the features out in time. They get their forecast community to over-warn the public early, such than when the inevitable correcting toward harmlessness will need to take place,... there's no way a festering immorality of litigates can hit pay dirt for their own lack of virtuosity and ethics ...  I like that - but it's not likely true.  Uh...I mean the 'protectionism' -   we are a festering immorality of course...

It's an important question though, because it seems there's been an increased frequency of model "upgrades" in that time.  It used to [ at least seem ...] like these needed 5 years to upgrade any one of these modeling systems. Christ. Millions of lines of modularized code that is/are conditionally called based upon various physically packaged result sets or grid inputs ...some of which is/are still theoretical ...  Now?  What, they're able to do that yearly?  ...yeah

I think cynically about stuff.  I mean the scientific process perhaps is glossing as modern breakdown ... being less meticulous in modernity ... impatient.  I dunno - digressive commentary here, but it "feels" like we live in a rushed intent, vetting is eroded by ambition. It's not discretely obvious but as a lean?  Attitude to 'get it out there,' based on some .. perhaps competition, or perhaps even celebrity ambition ... Private industry is competitive with the NCEP... or the like.  So, these institutions may even just be pressured; need to be rushing things to keep up and they can't - catch-22.  Why?  The Gov can't by circumstance really be agile like private tech... etc..etc...  What suffers?  more so the 'institutional dependability.'   

That circuitry leading to a lax systemic error prone product suite... it's probably not exactly right. Ha... But, there is a modicum of uneasiness about these modeling products when you see something like a damping aspect that is 100% dependable,  regardless of all circumstances leading, too. 

You know, if a car always drifts left or right regardless of the terrain of the road, that's usually a sign one needs to check their alignment -

I don't recall a single modeled impactful event from that range ...successfully maturing to less than ~ day 5 without being morphed weaker ... It's surreptitiously diminished, too. You don't know how in the hell you ended up with the piece of shit you're looking at.  You just sort of realize, 'man, this thing's a piece of shit - how did I get here'.  
 

 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

No winter is the worst after getting over 2' and 5"/.hr rates like you did. 

Try 6/hr beeatch 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I can't put down a winter with the most memorable storm of my life. Yeah, as a whole the winter has kinda sucked, but when it comes to memories, this one has a big one. Some of those other 100" winters had a lot of events, but my recollection of the individual events has faded.

It's kinda how I feel about 11-12. Yeah, the winter sucked as a whole, but Oct 11 was also one of the greatest, anomalous storms of my life. I'll take 20-21 and 11-12 over 80" of numerous 6-10" events in which none of them stand out.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Storms have ended up west of guidance... but not necessarily stronger. 

The problem with track - less so amplitude - coverage by the models has been the "needle threading" aspect -

 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are quite amped on the 2/26 threat. I'm not buying a mid-atlantic snowstorm yet on that look. 

Amp the damn thing up here, please.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Amp the damn thing up here, please.

Shearing is the issue...the ensembles have a lot of lows well north but they are sheared.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

100 percent..look at last winter.

 

 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

To a place getting the shaft a lot. It all evens out.

Was just thinking about this the other day.

If one looked at the last 6 years one would think eastern New England would average double that of western New England. However if you look at the yearly annual snowfall maps it's pretty evenly distributed west to east (west is higher but I attribute that to higher terrain).

It all evens out.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Shearing is the issue...the ensembles have a lot of lows well north but they are sheared.

More woodchipper action up here.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

More woodchipper action up here.

Just a continuation of suckage.

[George001]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Shearing is the issue...the ensembles have a lot of lows well north but they are sheared.

What changes do we need in the upper levels to allow for an earlier developing and intensifying Miller b rather than shearing out?

[Typhoon Tip]

I have a time sensy hypothesis that would expire upon reception of the this immediate ensuing Euro run -

...I'm wondering if tries to bulge up a bit of an eastern CONUS ridge D 7 -10 ...latter.

[George001]

The 22nd-23rd as well as the 26th are 2 legitimate threats coming up. The 22-23rd threat especially is looking better on the models, the strength of the low has increased and it is developing earlier than the models had yesterday. It is still too far north but if we can get that low to develop even 50 miles south things could get interesting really fast.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

 

hopefully that meat grinder pattern ray talked about goes away by the 26th. It’s there on the models right now but it doesn’t look like it would take much to make that threat better. 

 

1 minute ago, George001 said:

The 22nd-23rd as well as the 26th are 2 legitimate threats coming up. The 22-23rd threat especially is looking better on the models, the strength of the low has increased and it is developing earlier than the models had yesterday. It is still too far north but if we can get that low to develop even 50 miles south things could get interesting really fast.

And 2 weeks ago the models had a string of "threats"....how did the threats work out???

[Typhoon Tip]

anyway... the CPC's tele curves really end winter ..

I'm not sure why the operational run fights it so ...actually, 'ignores' would seem apropos, but is inappropriately anthropomorphic - it's probably just because the operational version is a souped - up turbo charged N stream juggernaut at all times so .. .like I said last week/10 days ago when this "early spring" vibe started to take hold of those distant telecon looks... the operational GFS will be the last model out of all included the "Antarctic" to see any scenario that requires it release it's terrible physical strangle hold on the hemisphere utilizing an N/stream it formulates so powerful that Jupiter rejected it ...

man that models is frustrating -

What is fascinating is that en masse/ blending via the EOFs we end up with a layout where there is 0 telecon support of any storm, period.  Violently, post SSW recovered hemisphere ( AO reversal into positive), while the NAO wobbles > 0 SD, and the PNA dips to -1 .... those are not individual storm suggestions and the sure as shit are not in combinatory influence, either.  Right out to  the end of the 2.5 weeks of GEF coverage. 

Yet, individual members still send Pac potency... All the while, dealing with this consummate correction/damping tendency and verified model error ?

Those two, together, as compounding facets ... I can't help but feel like we are seeing the "how" phantom storms are being fabricated by the noise of the model(s)... incarnate. 

I'm wondering if that's sort of a "bowling" season happening - earlier than normal - and during a compression scenario. 

[George001]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

And 2 weeks ago the models had a string of "threats"....how did the threats work out???

It worked out great, I got a foot Superbowl Sunday, the storm Monday went north and rained but we have a major storm on our doorstep. Even if my forecast busts the NWS has 6-8 which is still a solid storm. That would be 2/3 storm threats delivering 6+ storms to my area, so no complaints here. Not every threat is going to work out but the pattern we are in right now has been good to my area, I have already gotten 20 inches of snow on the month. The models called for an active snowy pattern in Feb, and it delivered, and now they are extending it into early March before a warm up. After the warm up in Early March the question is does that stay and we get early spring or do we get a couple more weeks of winter after that? I believe we will get 2-3 weeks after the 1st week warmup but even if we don’t get another inch of snow I’m happy with how this winter went considering how bad things looked with the polar vortex over the North Pole in November.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

anyway... the CPC's tele curves really end winter ..

I'm not sure why the operational run fights it so ...actually, 'ignores' would seem apropos, but is inappropriately anthropomorphic - it's probably just because the operational version is a souped - up turbo charged N stream juggernaut at all times so .. .like I said last week/10 days ago when this "early spring" vibe started to take hold of those distant telecon looks... the operational GFS will be the last model out of all included the "Antarctic" to see any scenario that requires it release it's terrible physical strangle hold on the hemisphere utilizing an N/stream it formulates so powerful that Jupiter rejected it ...

man that models is frustrating -

What is fascinating is that en masse/ blending via the EOFs we end up with a layout where there is 0 telecon support of any storm, period.  Violently, post SSW recovered hemisphere ( AO reversal into positive), while the NAO wobbles > 0 SD, and the PNA dips to -1 .... those are not individual storm suggestions and the sure as shit are not in combinatory influence, either.  Right out to  the end of the 2.5 weeks of GEF coverage. 

Yet, individual members still send Pac potency... All the while, dealing with this consummate correction/damping tendency and verified model error ?

Those two, together, as compounding facets ... I can't help but feel like we are seeing the "how" phantom storms are being fabricated by the noise of the model(s)... incarnate. 

I'm wondering if that's sort of a "bowling" season happening - earlier than normal - and during a compression scenario. 

I have heard the term bowling ball used to describe snowstorms but I’m not really sure what is meant by that, so I wanted to ask what it means.

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

I root for rain right over your noggin.

I'm rooting for him to lose internet but that's just me

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm rooting for him to lose internet but that's just me

I'll bet your not the only one.................

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

I have heard the term bowling ball used to describe snowstorms but I’m not really sure what is meant by that, so I wanted to ask what it means.

It's a metaphor obviously, but one materialized out of the collective musing of this social -media's vernacular over the years. I means nothing to textual Meteorology -

it refers to a tendency in spring for the flow to dip initially like it's still mid winter, only to abandon the southern aspect and pinch off quasi closed lows that roll on through ... They look like round balls.  They can some times return a deep core height anomaly...

If the timing is right, they can produce giant events - ...most do not, however.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Maybe it will that's a long way off. New Euro 

So far for 12z.

CMC great lakes cutter.

Old GFS North Carolina crusher

New GFS MA special.

Euro?? We shall see

[George001]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a metaphor obviously, but one materialized out of the collective musing of this social -media's vernacular over the years. I means nothing to textual Meteorology -

it refers to a tendency in spring for the flow to dip initially like it's still mid winter, only to abandon the southern aspect and pinch off quasi closed lows that roll on through ... They look like round balls.  They can some times return a deep core height anomaly...

If the timing is right, they can produce giant events - ...most do not, however.

Thanks for the explanation, hopefully we can get a nice one in March before it really warms up to the 60s and 70s. The first thing I thought of when reading this was April 1st 1997 blizzard, I have been told that was one of the biggest blizzards ever in Eastern mass with 2ft+ being common. 

[Fozz]

With all this talk of a warm March, will this winter end as suddenly as 2009-10 did after the “Snowicane”?

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, George001 said:

Thanks for the explanation, hopefully we can get a nice one in March before it really warms up to the 60s and 70s. The first thing I thought of when reading this was April 1st 1997 blizzard, I have been told that was one of the biggest blizzards ever in Eastern mass with 2ft+ being common. 

More than less I suppose.

That particular beast was a hybrid between ... The 12z ( AM) March 30 synopsis featured an open Pacific wave moving east encroaching upon the western GL longitudes... 24 hours later, it was closing down to two contours of standard intervals ... Then on April 1 it was 4 contoured very deep anomaly situated SE of ACK - the evolution was more like 'becoming' a bowling ball.. But it was consistent with the general idea...  Just on roids -

More typically...you'll see a rain ball on the synoptic charts, with dark blue QPF cores nested in the middle of heaver regions; where there's probably base-ball diameter aggregates pruning early buds and snapping tulip stems,    ...of course, enabling neurotics in this engagement to hiding in 6 hours of enabling delusion and denial - Lol

useless...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Just a continuation of suckage.

It seems we have been discussing @Typhoon Tip 's fast flow meat grinder for several winters now.  I dunno' maybe it just seems that way but I can't readily recall the last slow moving juggernaut storm we had that gave us all some love.

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Fozz said:

With all this talk of a warm March, will this winter end as suddenly as 2009-10 did after the “Snowicane”?

We have 2 threats next week