PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 00z Euro is back to showing all the threats sliding south of here again. Been the story of the season. Precip hole over NNE. I’m sure this will flip just in time for the warm air to pour in later in March. Seems pretty classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: No, I just said it. Worst winter worst winter worst winter! There, and Now I’ve said it four times What a melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What a melt. I'd rank it the worst or very close to 2011-2012 and 2015-16 as well. garbage garbage and more garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: I'd rank it the worst or very close to 2011-2012 and 2015-16 as well. garbage garbage and more garbage. Pretty lame here overall...the entire winter was about 9 hours. It was lame, but not lame enough to render it memorable, if that makes sense. Not at all a ratter, but blah....about as expected last fall, though the sequencing has been off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 The only Feb less snowy than this one so far for Randolph was 2015/2016. I'm sure I'll get some moose fart stuff over the next week or so to widen the gap a little, but this month has been a bust. Models show very little of note through the end of the month. Average is 41, sitting at 21 so far, most of that from the storm on the 1st/2nd. Hopefully March is a real winter month here. I remember saying the same thing about February though... Need precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 00z Euro is back to showing all the threats sliding south of here again. Been the story of the season. Precip hole over NNE. I’m sure this will flip just in time for the warm air to pour in later in March. Seems pretty classic. When the south has a good winter NNE usually gets shut out with arctic cold. We haven't had real cold this year however. March into the first week of April is still snow season for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No winter is the worst after getting over 2' and 5"/.hr rates like you did. Yeah I can't put down a winter with the most memorable storm of my life. Yeah, as a whole the winter has kinda sucked, but when it comes to memories, this one has a big one. Some of those other 100" winters had a lot of events, but my recollection of the individual events has faded. It's kinda how I feel about 11-12. Yeah, the winter sucked as a whole, but Oct 11 was also one of the greatest, anomalous storms of my life. I'll take 20-21 and 11-12 over 80" of numerous 6-10" events in which none of them stand out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 This has really been a Jersey winter. They’ve gotten buried almost constantly, including today and quite possibly next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: The only Feb less snowy than this one so far for Randolph was 2015/2016. I'm sure I'll get some moose fart stuff over the next week or so to widen the gap a little, but this month has been a bust. Models show very little of note through the end of the month. Average is 41, sitting at 21 so far, most of that from the storm on the 1st/2nd. Hopefully March is a real winter month here. I remember saying the same thing about February though... Need precip! I know this will cause Steve to have a coranary, but this month left a lot on the table for most of NE. I know he is going to point out that he will probably make his 30", but the fact of that matter is that the month will go down as an underachiever for the majority of the region. I never said anything, but about a week ago, I decided that this stretch would make or break the winter for at least me personally.....it really did have a shot to go Feb '94, as it appeared near the end of last week that we were entering quite a stretch. But Tuesday going rainer and this one shitting the bed killed that in my view. This week distinguished this season from the more prolific ones like 1994 because IMHO the opportunity to enter that realm has now passed. Aside from a narrow sliver s of the pike in SNE, this one is destined for mediocrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Done with the Worst winner in 13 years living up here. Kept looking like it would get good then just into the toilet. I really want the 6-10 inches of frozen glop gone. It is unwalkable and miserable. I need a vacation somewhere warm. Were you here in 2015/16? 2011/12? Those were way worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know this will cause Steve to have a coranary, but this month left a lot on the table for most of NE. I know he is going to point out that he will probably make his 30", but the fact of that matter is that the month will go down as an underachiever for the majority of the region. I never said anything, but about a week ago, I decided that this stretch would make of break the winter for at least me personally.....it really did have a shot to go Feb '94, as it appeared near the end of last week that we were entering quite a stretch. But Tuesday going rainer and this one shitting the bed killed that in my view. This week distinguished this season from the more prolific ones like 1994 because IMHO the opportunity to enter that realm has now passed. Aside from a narrow sliver s of the pike in SNE, this one is destined for mediocrity. Unless of course it snows a lot next week. But I am above average for the year and a 30 inch Feb is outstanding. Lots of winter left kids 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Unless of course it snows a lot next week. But I am above average for the year and a 30 inch Feb is outstanding. Lots of winter left kids Don't get me wrong.....you did an outstanding job identifying the pattern this month, but you can't control the breaks. This could have easily been Feb 1994. I am not optimistic moving forward, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Next weekend looks like it may deliver somewhere. We’ll see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Fozz said: This has really been a Jersey winter. They’ve gotten buried almost constantly, including today and quite possibly next week. To a place getting the shaft a lot. It all evens out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Next weekend looks like it may deliver somewhere. We’ll see... That looks no different then every other event this winter....LBSW....upside is several inches from a decaying system. Long wave trough this season is just situated a hair too far west for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: This has really been a Jersey winter. They’ve gotten buried almost constantly, including today and quite possibly next week. What sticks out about this winter in Jersey is the pack and lack of torchy days. Jersey has had snow on the ground all month and probably will into early March. That’s a long streak for the climo. While it hasn’t been record cold, there haven’t been any 55-60 degree days either, which easily happen most winters. With the exception of the the rainer the other day, lots of low 30s for highs and low teens for lows, which is perfect for a wintery feel. Up at jay, nothing memorable for that climate; maybe even a little low on the snow, but consistent, with no torch or washouts since the grinch. Maine looks like the area that has really been shafted this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: To a place getting the shaft a lot. It all evens out. 100 percent..look at last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: To a place getting the shaft a lot. It all evens out. I thought we would have more later-blooming Miller Bs this year, but they have either been so late that they ignited over the ocean, or been LBSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get me wrong.....you did an outstanding job identifying the pattern this month, but you can't control the breaks. This could have easily been Feb 1994. I am not optimistic moving forward, but we'll see. Congrats new HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 That system next week that folks are so hopeful over.......here is the long range EURO...yea, look at that lead time....OMG.....except its happen like this all year, so why would this one NOT get shredded? I buy it. This looks great, right? What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That system next week that folks are so hopeful over.......here is the long range EURO...yea, look at that lead time....OMG.....except its happened like this all year, so why would this one NOT get shredded? I buy it. This looks great, right? What could possibly go wrong? 24 hours later: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: No winter is the worst after getting over 2' and 5"/.hr rates like you did. His doesn't qualify as worst as well as Brian's, But over here it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 24 hours later: Why? What happened? Same thing that has all season......trough amplifying west with energy dump, then se ridge compresses against lower heights to the north to create that wonderful meat cleaver near New England....storm vaporizes on approach after LBSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 24 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Next weekend looks like it may deliver somewhere. We’ll see... So now that we have gotten that out of the way....let me add some affirmation to your statement. Yes, it will deliver somewhere, it just won't be here- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Unless of course it snows a lot next week. But I am above average for the year and a 30 inch Feb is outstanding. Lots of winter left kids i've had 13" so far this month. yay I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That system next week that folks are so hopeful over.......here is the long range EURO...yea, look at that lead time....OMG.....except its happen like this all year, so why would this one NOT get shredded? I buy it. This looks great, right? What could possibly go wrong? 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 24 hours later: 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Why? What happened? Same thing that has all season......trough amplifying west with energy dump, then se ridge compresses against lower heights to the north to create that wonderful meat cleaver near New England....storm vaporizes on approach after LBSW. 12 minutes ago, George001 said: I agree it’s not unusual, but when it happens it typically means the low is farther west than expected. we have had several storms this year do that. The mid dec storm, the early feb storm, Superbowl Sunday storm, and now this one. In all 3 other storms the low ended up farther west and stronger than modeled. Now to be fair that doesn’t always mean more snow for us, in the early feb storm it actually meant less since the farther west low allowed more warm air to come in than expected, keeping totals down. The difference is we are on the northern edge of guidance this time where as then we were on the southern edge. Warm air farther north than expected in the mid Atlantic is good for us if we are on the northern edge of guidance and bad if we are on the southern edge. Your posts are like nails on a chalk board. The warmer air making it further north does not matter, and these three posts illustrate why. This is in reference to next week, but the same logic applies here. Your thought process if far too linear. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Your posts are like nails on a chalk board. The warmer air making further north does not matter, and these three posts illustrate why. This is in reference to next week, but the same logic applies here. Your thought process if far too linear. Your breakdown is exactly what I have watched all winter. It's why the models keep showing me buried under 4 feet of fresh snow every two weeks from a parade of strong storms and SWFEs and then at verification time everything is sliding well OTS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, George001 said: Idk it seems like whenever dc does well we get screwed and vice versa. There’s a reason why they root for the opposite patterns that we do, they root for strong ninos and we root for strong ninas. If they get hammered usually the storm track is too far south for us, and if we get hammered usually it’s a Miller b so they get screwed because the storm transfers too late. I root for rain right over your noggin. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Your breakdown is exactly what I have watched all winter. It's why the models keep showing me buried under 4 feet of fresh snow every two weeks from a parade of strong storms and SWFEs and then at verification time everything is sliding well OTS. Or disintegrating completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, tamarack said: Or disintegrating completely. We've had a number of Houdini events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now