40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beware low level warmth ahead of it. Almost looks like on of those deals for Hunchie on op, but it is early. I've said all along that this week looked like more smoke than fire for MBY....still looks that way. Good shot to end up below 6" in the aggregate between yesterday and next Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Beware low level warmth ahead of it. Almost looks like on of those deals for Hunchie on op, but it is early. NVM thermals, its looks to get going too late, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: NVM thermals, its looks to get going too late, regardless. Figured you would be all over this. Right up your alley. The new Euro shows what potentially could result. I am interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Figured you would be all over this. Right up your alley. The new Euro shows what potentially could result. I am interested If it got going sooner it would be much better. But SE flow ahead of it would warm the boundary layer probably SE of like LWM-BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Am I the only one that noticed that the Monday event was essentially a frontal passage on the 00z EURO? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Figured you would be all over this. Right up your alley. The new Euro shows what potentially could result. I am interested What is right up my alley? Objectively conveying model data? I'd rather a late-bloom potential....actually favors my area for once....a nice reprieve from LBSW...though it probably ends up LBNE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 If tomorrow and 2/22 don’t really work out, the rumor is that 2/26 has potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If it got going sooner it would be much better. But SE flow ahead of it would warm the boundary layer probably SE of like LWM-BDL. I'd take my chances on the thermals...just get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: If tomorrow and 2/22 don’t really work out, the rumor is that 2/26 has potential! Rumors and rumors of rumors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I frustrated this snark in the other thread, but, I'm done with this model performance cold season - This consummate dampening of amplitude bringing anything, no matter what model either, into near ranges - that fact cannot be more punishing ( and stupid to ignore ) at this point. 22nd is not happening until that can be resolved... otherwise, whatever does, is a pallid reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: If tomorrow and 2/22 don’t really work out, the rumor is that 2/26 has potential! People are already canceling winter after tomorrow which is stupid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: People are already canceling winter after tomorrow which is stupid He was being sarcastic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He was being sarcastic. I cant tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People are already canceling winter after tomorrow which is stupid What does that mean exactly ha ...seriously curious there, what constitutes canceling of winter, in a discrete, comprehensively intelligible definition. I think most would agree that it is cooler now that it will be in July. That is acceptance that it is, in fact, winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Rumors and rumors of rumors. Days and days of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People are already canceling winter after tomorrow which is stupid Right. The smart ones canceled right after 2/7. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Right. The smart ones canceled right after 2/7. March is like a slow death of winter. And with how it looks on guidance? Eh. I’d be more excited if we had blocking or better PNA. But weenies don’t want to hear that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People are already canceling winter after tomorrow which is stupid They’re ending it for good Feb 24 in met group I know . Talk of that’s it and Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: They’re ending it for good Feb 24 in met group I know . Talk of that’s it and Morch You say that just as the v16 is cooking up a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Rumors and rumors of rumors. Still waiting on my day 7 SECS's that i have seen the last 6 weeks on the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Giving up when there is 4-6 weeks left is a mistake, when we are buried under feet of snow mid March those who are canceling winter will realize it was a big mistake to do that when the polar vortex was close by and the pacific isn’t dominating the pattern like previous years (due to La Niña cooling it off). The signs for an epic March are there, look at what’s happening in Texas right now. The fact that arctic air is able to get that far South says something about the pattern we are in, and it says that zonal nonsense some of the models are spitting out in the long range is likely BS. The models have been saying that feb would suck in mid jan, then it moved back to mid feb would suck, now it has been moved back to it will suck in March. The atmospheric drivers do not support a zonal pattern this year, which is why they keep pushing it back. Just like how last year the models kept having a great pattern ahead but moved it back because the atmospheric drivers supported a mild and zonal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I can tell you what you can do with the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People are already canceling winter after tomorrow which is stupid for NYC south, winter is definitely over. However this is not a NYC thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Cmc trying for a Miller B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc trying for a Miller B counterpoint, ggem is stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: People are already canceling winter after tomorrow which is stupid "which is hopeful." I think a lot of people are just done with the cold and snow. More so than other years. Couped up indoors all the time and can't have any gatherings. Winter can end tomorrow and I'd be happy because it means golfing, fishing, and yard work. Seriously though, the Euro op has three uninteresting >1000 mb lows passing the region. Stat padders if anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc trying for a Miller B CMC was trying for Miller B for tomorrow up until about 30 minutes ago. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: "which is hopeful." I think a lot of people are just done with the cold and snow. More so than other years. Couped up indoors all the time and can't have any gatherings. Winter can end tomorrow and I'd be happy because it means golfing, fishing, and yard work. Seriously though, the Euro op has three uninteresting >1000 mb lows passing the region. Stat padders if anything. I wouldn't be if I thought there was a realistic shot at a major storm...I know a few others are in the same boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: March is like a slow death of winter. And with how it looks on guidance? Eh. I’d be more excited if we had blocking or better PNA. But weenies don’t want to hear that. Yeah... agreed winter death- math for dummies and deniers: A The AO/PNA/NAO at CPC are warm signaled by March ( am aware that half the AO members attempt to sag back negative, but that at the end of week two but that is utterly undependable). B The antecedent hemispheric footprint La Nina comes with warm spring climo C The HC wants to expand southern heights at all times ...built in at planetary scope ( A + B + C ) / 3 = ? While all that is occurred/ing/set to transpire ... any given model run that shows a general synoptic distinction that is cold and snowy ... must by lucid problem solving skills be construed as incongruous .. Anomalies nested in anomalies happen from time to time.. .. Like, one may observer 6 months in a positive temperature raging hard-on, but it gets really cold for two weeks inside... That two weeks is a negative anomaly, relative to the longer term warmth - ... So, sure, we could "bowling" ball in March.. .But money down? bet at own risk... Problem is? Knee jerk reactions - taken to extreme and absolutes... Some comes in here and sensibly and rationally gives reason to veraciously conclude along a warm correction vector, and we get this steady stream of 'cancel winter' waving. I think folks should almost expect a balmy expansion away from winter at some point next month... arriving at any time really after the next couple weeks. Whether that times for first, 2nd or 3rd week... whatever. I mean I'm already seeing attempts in the numerical guidance. The latitudes beneath roughly 37 deg across ever E of Denver on the 00z Euro... from D4 on, ...that is spring in the south folks. Like this ICON ...These types of thickness plumes are bubbling out of the south at times now - it's not that this may verify unto itself...it is increasing in frequency in modeling ...a manifestation of all the above, and the fact that winter can't f'ing last for ever - get over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Can we get the new GFS run please. Holy heck not for this thread but explosion in the ocean Grain of salt the size of Kev's bald spot: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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