EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GFS furthest north CMC monster hit EURO big hit SNE GFS 16 south of SNE Good average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: LR Telleconnections for Feb show a real tendency for a Neg Nao Neg EPO. After the storm which maybe a Heather event based on telles, expect a mild couple of days then we dig back in for the duration of Feb with the 2nd and 3rd weeks seemingly prime storm and snow chances. We ride the line I think with a Greenland ridge and -EPO. Beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: LR Telleconnections for Feb show a real tendency for a Neg Nao Neg EPO. After the storm which maybe a Heather event based on telles, expect a mild couple of days then we dig back in for the duration of Feb with the 2nd and 3rd weeks seemingly prime storm and snow chances. Ray says Heather does not exist in the back half of a mod nina which I disagreed with...so we’ll see who’s weenie was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS furthest north CMC monster hit EURO big hit SNE GFS 16 south of SNE Good average you have better odds going to the casino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ray says Heather does not exist in the back half of a mod nina which I disagreed with...so we’ll see who’s weenie was right. It would be a first for me....perhaps Will can rattle one off. This does look like about as a good a shot as you will see, though. Remember....I am still expecting greater than 30" of snow IMBY, so I'm not exactly saying that winter is over, either....I just think you are going to have a hard time landing a truly big fish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We ride the line I think with a Greenland ridge and -EPO. Beware. What is wrong with that? Do you mean its just a finger ridge, and not a bonafide block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: If no cutter 8? Completely reasonable....good over/under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It would be a first for me....perhaps Will can rattle one off. This does look like about as a good a shot as you will see, though. Remember....I am still expecting greater than 30" of snow IMBY, so I'm not exactly saying that winter is over, either....I just think you are going to have a hard time landing a truly big fish. Fair enough, understood. This could still crap out too so I’m not spiking anything yet. Let’s get it inside d3/4 with the big potential still on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Fair enough, understood. This could still crap out too so I’m not spiking anything yet. Let’s get it inside d3/4 with the big potential still on the board. Remember the trend all season, which is typical of mod strong la nina....guidance tries to model a very big east coast storm, only to have it trend more moderately within the final 72-96 hours, as models are more able to aptly resolve the inherent difficulty of achieving a proficient phase with a fast-flow, mod la nina regime. We just saw this happen to the mid atl (it is phasing, but later)....better shot with latitude, but still going to be tough. Nothing wrong with that....we would all take a 6-8" snowfall about now, but just acknowledging this. I think the realistic ceiling here will end up like 6-10", maybe 8-14" type deal....big dump, but nothing anyone, apart from Will, is going to recall five years from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is wrong with that? Do you mean its just a finger ridge, and not a bonafide block? Your wish for more qpf looks to come true, we ride the line which in Feb is good. IMHO this Arctic outbreak coming up definitely helps SSTs and general cyrosphere across our Northern states. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Your wish for more qpf looks to come true, we ride the line which in Feb is good. IMHO this Arctic outbreak coming up definitely helps SSTs and general cyrosphere across our Northern states. Yea, I will gamble with this. If we get a big February, I think your Jan 2011 call still has merit. It is beyond difficult to accurately predict a pattern several months out, never mind the precise timing of it....then to have it result in the literal forecast sensible appeal, as far as snowfall amounts.....heh, yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is wrong with that? Do you mean its just a finger ridge, and not a bonafide block? I just mean the SE ridge comes in with that look of a -EPO. So we need some blocking or it's Bengal Tigers and Mai Tais. I do think it is active, so potential is there for some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Your wish for more qpf looks to come true, we ride the line which in Feb is good. IMHO this Arctic outbreak coming up definitely helps SSTs and general cyrosphere across our Northern states. Yup. We're finally looking to establish a solid barcoclinic zone which should aid in more cohesive storm development. Risk for cutters is still there though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I just mean the SE ridge comes in with that look of a -EPO. So we need some blocking or it's Bengal Tigers and Mai Tais. I do think it is active, so potential is there for some fun. Well, you said Greenland ridge and -EPO....so that is neg NAO and neg EPO, which is why I was wondering why you were ambivalent.... I agree.....neg NAO is game changer....that goes, and you have my forecast Feb, which is no fun. Just a hunch, but I still feel like we would steal some decent snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yup. We're finally looking to establish a solid barcoclinic zone which should aid in more cohesive storm development. Risk for cutters is still there though. Hopefully my latitude finally pays some dividends. I know its not much of a difference from Wilmington, but you would be shocked at how often mother nature has managed to shove that extra 10-12 mi of latitude up my rear, since I moved here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, you said Greenland ridge and -EPO....so that is neg NAO and neg EPO, which is why I was wondering why you were ambivalent.... I agree.....neg NAO is game changer....that goes, and you have my forecast Feb, which is no fun. Just a hunch, but I still feel like we would steal some decent snow, though. Greenland ridge, yes. I'd probably want it closer to the Davis Straits with that look, but I certainly won't scoff at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Greenland ridge, yes. I'd probably want it closer to the Davis Straits with that look, but I certainly won't scoff at it. I'm fine with it....for obvious reasons, I am done gambling on precip and suppression, and am ready to take my chances otherwise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm fine with it....for obvious reasons, I am done gambling on precip and suppression, and am ready to take my chances otherwise. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm fine with it....for obvious reasons, I am done gambling on precip and suppression, and am ready to take my chances otherwise. Yeah I'd rather risk cutters and 50F nape days over dry and cold. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I agree. I think we see a warmer couple of days with some showers quick precip then we reset for a very active period. Pretty common in Feb before a good period. There is plenty of cold air as Bob alluded to. Good times. First things first though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 GEFS looked excellent...hair inside BM. EPS was okay, but I would like to see that come NW a bit....well outside of the BM. SE trend. GEPS were pretty bad...se of EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2021 Author Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS looked excellent...hair inside BM. EPS was okay, but I would like to see that come NW a bit....well outside of the BM. SE trend. GEPS were pretty bad...se of EPS. Windshield wiper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 I don’t see any signal of warm days. By February with sun angle 40-45 is normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t see any signal of warm days. By February with sun angle 40-45 is normal Avg highs of 40F aren't reached in SNE until late February (have to wait until 1 week into March for places like ORH) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I think we see a warmer couple of days with some showers quick precip then we reset for a very active period. Pretty common in Feb before a good period. There is plenty of cold air as Bob alluded to. Good times. First things first though. How about another Feb 2009 - nothing thru the 18th except one cutter, then 2 storms worth 33" in 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: If no cutter 8? More. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 36 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah I'd rather risk cutters and 50F nape days over dry and cold. Yeah, I'd much rather have the mud holes and water bars crossing the trails when out riding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Wpc has good snow probs for Feb 2 for all of NE south of months but particularly wsne and cne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t see any signal of warm days. By February with sun angle 40-45 is normal 6th or 7th has warm potential. That's the EPO dump so IMO that is likely. Maybe we can turn it into a SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: 6th or 7th has warm potential. That's the EPO dump so IMO that is likely. Maybe we can turn it into a SWFE? If early next week goes well, can snowcover do work there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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