February the climo snow month

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Yeah definitely not over.. It will warm up but we'll have more snow it's only mid February

Absolutely...and that’s my only point. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Climo obviously dictates that its not over....just my hunch that a lot of sports probably end up with like several more inches after tonight.

Agreed. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I hope it is 83 F on March 1 - the 14th...  then, precisely of the 15th, it is 32 F with 60" of snow, then the 16th - 30th it is 83 F  

Snowiest March ever

[Typhoon Tip]

So I guess in a nutshell ... there are signals in play here that support outlandishly warm March ...probably April too. 

It seems weak acknowledgement followed by "it's not over " ... isn't really acknowledging that possibility -

I mean, WHAT's not over - ... like in 10 minutes... 10 days... ???  no one said so - just in case - but ...

If March burns one and they feel spurned ... your choice -

 

[dendrite]

Deep winter's back is broken. I haven't hit 40F here since 1/16 and it looks like those chances will creep up this week. Then maybe some warmer days to start March. Yeah...it'll snow again. Yeah, it'll get cold again. But the coldest of the cold looks to be behind us. It's like when you get that 1st cold front in late August that breaks the string of 3 weeks of lows in the 60s to near 70F and the outlook shows multiple fronts and sfc highs going into Sep.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Deep winter's back is broken. I haven't hit 40F here since 1/16 and it looks like those chances will creep up this week. Then maybe some warmer days to start March. Yeah...it'll snow again. Yeah, it'll get cold again. But the coldest of the cold looks to be behind us. It's like when you get that 1st cold front in late August that breaks the string of 3 weeks of lows in the 60s to near 70F and the outlook shows multiple fronts and sfc highs going into Sep.

 

I like this realism of seasonal change - ... It is a Feb thing too... I've often noted that the very first subtle sense of seasonal change is really them two months. First day of spring is like whenever the back break happens going that way - vice versa in August. 

Now, just add the other climate modulators I've been trying to get this obsessed straight jacket red-eyed chair rocker crew to think about... 

doesn't end well for protracted winter enthusiasts. 

Now, whether that means March 3, 10, ...17...20 ... I speculate this spring has as good a chance as any in lore for doing more of sloped rise out/ less cold recidivism

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Deep winter's back is broken. I haven't hit 40F here since 1/16 and it looks like those chances will creep up this week. Then maybe some warmer days to start March. Yeah...it'll snow again. Yeah, it'll get cold again. But the coldest of the cold looks to be behind us. It's like when you get that 1st cold front in late August that breaks the string of 3 weeks of lows in the 60s to near 70F and the outlook shows multiple fronts and sfc highs going into Sep.

Yeah the temperature aspect of winter is going to be broken after this last bit of cold gets flushed out....but unlike summer, so many in here use snowfall as the metric and not temps, so "winter" continues into March even though we've ended the below 0F threats and chances of a week straight well below freezing.

This year, early March looks pretty feeble on guidance, so it might work out from a snowfall standpoint too, but we'll see. Mar '56 was pretty unremarkable and slightly mild the first week and then all hell broke loose. Even Mar '97 was pretty mild the first week before flipping with multiple snow events and of course the 3/31-4/1 finale. Though that type of evolution is the exception and not the rule....you usually want to make hay in the first week to 10 days of March if it's going to be a big month.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

I like this realism of seasonal change - ... It is a Feb thing too... I've often noted that the very first subtle sense of seasonal change is really them two months. First day of spring is like whenever the back break happens going that way - vice versa in August. 

Now, just add the other climate modulators I've been trying to get this obsessed straight jacket red-eyed chair rocker crew to think about... 

doesn't end well for protracted winter enthusiasts. 

Now, whether that means March 3, 10, ...17...20 ... I speculate this spring has as good a chance as any in lore for doing more of sloped rise out/ less cold recidivism

Your rush each year to get to the season your loathe the most is always fascinating. You rush to end winter to get to the your season of screen doors slamming shut, flags pinned NE to SW, and your bowl of North Atlantic puke down to Philly. Better off keeping it winter into Mid Napril than suffer thru your hated NE early spring 

[PhineasC]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the temperature aspect of winter is going to be broken after this last bit of cold gets flushed out....but unlike summer, so many in here use snowfall as the metric and not temps, so "winter" continues into March even though we've ended the below 0F threats and chances of a week straight well below freezing.

This year, early March looks pretty feeble on guidance, so it might work out from a snowfall standpoint too, but we'll see. Mar '56 was pretty unremarkable and slightly mild the first week and then all hell broke loose. Even Mar '97 was pretty mild the first week before flipping with multiple snow events and of course the 3/31-4/1 finale. Though that type of evolution is the exception and not the rule....you usually want to make hay in the first week to 10 days of March if it's going to be a big month.

The real cold never even arrived, so no back to break.

Temps were stuck between 15-25 here seemingly forever with just a few excursions below that.

I get that the chicken and bamboo crowd might have a different outlook on this. LOL

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your rush each year to get to the season your loathe the most is always fascinating. You rush to end winter to get to the your season of screen doors slamming shut, flags pinned NE to SW, and your bowl of North Atlantic puke down to Philly. Better off keeping it winter into Mid Napril than suffer thru your hated NE early spring 

Who are you?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

Who are you?

He is you and you is I? What do we mean?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The real cold never even arrived, so no back to break.

Temps were stuck between 15-25 here seemingly forever with just a few excursions below that.

I get that the chicken and bamboo crowd might have a different outlook on this. LOL

We def lacked legit arctic cold almost all winter....the one big chance we had whiffed us when it all went west and south of us this past week. Only 2nd winter that failed to go below 0F at ORH in the past 9 years (low this year was 0F back in January). Ironically the other was last year, lol.

[Bostonseminole]

so are we done for feb?  meh

[Cold Miser]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your rush each year to get to the season your loathe the most is always fascinating. You rush to end winter to get to the your season of screen doors slamming shut, flags pinned NE to SW, and your bowl of North Atlantic puke down to Philly. Better off keeping it winter into Mid Napril than suffer thru your hated NE early spring 

Too many good quotes to have as my sig this season.  

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

so are we done for feb?  meh

Sounds like Close the shades on the last week of Feb? , let the snow melt (next week )  and see if we are allowed to enjoy ourselves outside In 2 weeks 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Sounds like Close the shades on the last week of Feb? , let the snow melt (next week )  and see if we are allowed to enjoy ourselves outside In 2 weeks 

I'm expecting the 2/26 threat to come roaring back to life as soon as everyone gets on board with the end of snow for the month.

[Cold Miser]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm expecting the 2/26 threat to come roaring back to life as soon as everyone gets on board with the end of snow for the month.

Would be nice to end the month on that note.  This has been a nice, wintry month.

[Damage In Tolland]

Would still watch Monday PM . There’s a sneaky signal in there.

The result will be snow to start for many
locations given the thermal profile, though coastal areas may just
stay all rain for the event. As temperatures climb snow will
gradually change over to rain across the the lower elevations of the
interior. Think that the highest elevations may stay cold enough to
remain mostly if not all snow through the event. Still not
anticipating a high impact system as forcing still appears limited
within the DGZ. In addition, system is fairly progressive, so if
there is a period of heavier snowfall it should be a fairly short
duration. Still think the 1-3 inches of accumulation across the
interior is a good call with the highest amounts over the higher
terrain.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would still watch Monday PM . There’s a sneaky signal in there.

The result will be snow to start for many
locations given the thermal profile, though coastal areas may just
stay all rain for the event. As temperatures climb snow will
gradually change over to rain across the the lower elevations of the
interior. Think that the highest elevations may stay cold enough to
remain mostly if not all snow through the event. Still not
anticipating a high impact system as forcing still appears limited
within the DGZ. In addition, system is fairly progressive, so if
there is a period of heavier snowfall it should be a fairly short
duration. Still think the 1-3 inches of accumulation across the
interior is a good call with the highest amounts over the higher
terrain.

Rgem

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the temperature aspect of winter is going to be broken after this last bit of cold gets flushed out....but unlike summer, so many in here use snowfall as the metric and not temps, so "winter" continues into March even though we've ended the below 0F threats and chances of a week straight well below freezing.

This year, early March looks pretty feeble on guidance, so it might work out from a snowfall standpoint too, but we'll see. Mar '56 was pretty unremarkable and slightly mild the first week and then all hell broke loose. Even Mar '97 was pretty mild the first week before flipping with multiple snow events and of course the 3/31-4/1 finale. Though that type of evolution is the exception and not the rule....you usually want to make hay in the first week to 10 days of March if it's going to be a big month.

Especially here in the low lands....a tame early March is usually a fatal blow to hope for a protracted winter.

[HoarfrostHubb]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We def lacked legit arctic cold almost all winter....the one big chance we had whiffed us when it all went west and south of us this past week. Only 2nd winter that failed to go below 0F at ORH in the past 9 years (low this year was 0F back in January). Ironically the other was last year, lol.

Yeah. Back to back winters where I spent around 1 hour total below zero. Two -1F mornings spaced a ways apart.  That was it.  
I routinely hit -5, -10 or colder most winters

[HoarfrostHubb]

Yeah. Monday PM looks rather Forgetable or wet for most.  

[Cold Miser]

20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. Monday PM looks rather Forgetable or wet for most.  

I will take, "Things that are meh" for $2000, (dead) Alex"

[Damage In Tolland]

49 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah. Monday PM looks rather Forgetable or wet for most.  

Wonder what Will thinks?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

I like this realism of seasonal change - ... It is a Feb thing too... I've often noted that the very first subtle sense of seasonal change is really them two months. First day of spring is like whenever the back break happens going that way - vice versa in August. 

Now, just add the other climate modulators I've been trying to get this obsessed straight jacket red-eyed chair rocker crew to think about... 

doesn't end well for protracted winter enthusiasts. 

Now, whether that means March 3, 10, ...17...20 ... I speculate this spring has as good a chance as any in lore for doing more of sloped rise out/ less cold recidivism

Sure and just as well,  Autumn’s back is often broken by Nov 1st over the interior.  I am not being sarcastic when I say the deepest part of winter is from November 1 until February 1 over interior SNE. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your rush each year to get to the season your loathe the most is always fascinating. You rush to end winter to get to the your season of screen doors slamming shut, flags pinned NE to SW, and your bowl of North Atlantic puke down to Philly. Better off keeping it winter into Mid Napril than suffer thru your hated NE early spring 

Hey no argument  -  ...if our druthers had an say in the matter, of course...

But let me ask the snow/cold -anti-SAD crew this question:   If you could flip a switch and guarantee it would be 80 on March 1, never to suffer the flag pinning 'rea, would they still be saying the, "  Better off keeping it winter into Mid Napril   " mantra, OR, would the opt negating to flipping that switch?

See??   ...They'd negate -

- disengenuous... Hiding some tormented hatred for summer behind that flimsy sounding "might as well -" thing; to which frankly isn't even logical.  In spring, one should be looking for spring, be the moment and embracing of it and the environmental inevitability ... The modeling and weather prediction that assists that along - all of it. 

Fact of the matter is it's all nonesensical failure to face reality, hiding in the enable delusional bubble of yet another Internet etho-chamber.   Ha, I like that

No but this year I legit am hitting the change harder because there are legit reasons to do so. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hey no argument  -  ...if our druthers had an say in the matter, of course...

But let me ask the snow/cold -anti-SAD crew this question:   If you could flip a switch and guarantee it would be 80 on March 1, never to suffer the flag pinning 'rea, would they still be saying the, "  Better off keeping it winter into Mid Napril   " mantra, OR, would the opt negating to flipping that switch?

See??   ...They'd negate -

- disengenuous... Hiding some tormented hatred for summer behind that flimsy sounding "might as well -" thing; to which frankly isn't even logical.  In spring, one should be looking for spring, be the moment and embracing of it and the environmental inevitability ... The modeling and weather prediction that assists that along - all of it. 

Fact of the matter is it's all nonesensical failure to face reality, hiding in the enable delusional bubble of yet another Internet etho-chamber.   Ha, I like that

No but this year I legit am hitting the change harder because there are legit reasons to do so. 

 

Yes .. I would sign up for Morch 2012 anyday all day and six ways to Sunday . That was awesome. Better than snow that melts as it’s falling 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Sure and just as well,  Autumn’s back is often broken by Nov 1st over the interior.  I am not being sarcastic when I say the deepest part of winter is from November 1 until February 1 over interior SNE. 

Sort of agree?

I think we have an entirely separate, and quite new, behavior going on...  Other Mets not in this social mediasphere - that I am aware ... - and I have been back and forth re the apparent ..increasingly more coherent year to year "book ending" seasonal lag effect.

What that is, is that speedier hemispheric flow rushes seasonal change in earlier... and that pops off continental cold snaps ...atoning for why since 2000 there is a propensity for snow realization, either by supportive synoptics or actual in the air phenomenon, prior to November 15s.   

I know anecdotally/ .. existentially that is true in my life, which is about split ( bottom heavy ..) around 2000.. I think I smelled snow air 10 times and saw it once in October in those decades; since 2000, half at least if not 2/3rd of years at least in the synoptic sense... 

But here's the kicker - almost a pun too ..  As the gradient hemispherically steepens with the onsetting boreal winter heights...the sloped/ gradient effectively transforms the hemispheric mid latitudes into a progressive velocity saturation... and that tends to off set the curve trajectory jet structures ( tends to people - we're not talking absolutes here...)..  That mitigates cyclone proficiency some ... accounting for big cold N big warm south ...paltry mechanics that actually snow proficiently relative to, because they are containing more water vapor -  so there's competing layers in there... 

But in the spring, the gradient relaxes and the hemisphere like, 'passes back through that autumn' framework en route to the normal summer nebularity.. And as it does, we get late cold blocking and packing pellet events in April and Mays - sound familiar... 

I think/wonder if this spring we may offset that that typology we seem to have established of springs as of late.. Because this will be the first time there is a temporal collocation of warm factors ...  La Nina + HC +  telecon clustering of warm mass indicators...   added to seasonal solar ... It may offset the eddy tendencies as described.   2012 may have been a March that demonstrates that what happens and ... while it's insane to forecast a redux of a +8 to + 12 month ( yikes...) frankly almost see that year's leading indicators as a bit of a anolog here. 

Just waiting for it to actually show up in the models ... hahahhha   seriously though

[MJO812]

 

[Ginx snewx]

Monday Euro