February the climo snow month

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Now, The Op GFS has 3 cutters in the next 15 days, I bet we can lock them in place.

That was an ugly run. Misses and cutters.

Even the cutters have been trending SE and weak to the point they miss. The storm today started out as a warm rainer and turned into a weak turd.

So far, every time I have had a melt I have received 15"+ within a week, so perhaps it will work a 4th time.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dryslot said:

Now, The Op GFS has 3 cutters in the next 15 days, I bet we can lock them in place.

Scoots says that’s poppy COC that only cutters lock in 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's the sense of what could have been and also the many, many near misses on the models. It's incredibly easy to get feet of digital snow here given the climate. Every slug of moisture seems to fizzle by the time it gets here, however. It would be nice to have one of these stretches with a couple decent SWFEs verify. Been modeled all winter.

Also, my area is beating every other spot in NH because I cashed in on the three big synoptic storms (early December, mid January, early February). Places that underperformed on those events are have a crappy winter because it's been kinda dead for long periods between those events. Like Alex, for example.

Not untypical though. Long long season there bursts of heavies then dry but as wavelengths change you cash in

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not untypical though. Long long season there bursts of heavies then dry but as wavelengths change you cash in

Yeah, trying to tell myself March is a winter month there. By March 15th winter is really on it's deathbed in MD (if it ever lived in the first place) but records say Randolph is good through early April.

[78Blizzard]

Not February, but what a difference a day makes on the GFS L/R:

 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Not February, but what a difference a day makes on the GFS L/R:

 

SE ridge on roids.

[NorEastermass128]

D16 OP?

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

SE ridge on roids.

Looks like some grinch BS with snow pushing into northern Alabama. 

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Scoots says that’s poppy COC that only cutters lock in 

I have this feeling its going to end very quickly, Just like flipping a light switch.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dryslot said:

I have this feeling its going to end very quickly, Just like flipping a light switch.

Tips been trying to end it for over a month 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Looks like some grinch BS with snow pushing into northern Alabama. 

A continuation of winter where temps are colder in texas then New England.

[dryslot]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Tips been trying to end it for over a month 

He commented at the end of the euro today there were signs......lol

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

He commented at the end of the euro today there were signs......lol

He’s been desperately trying to end it for many many weeks. He finds signals everywhere 

[Lava Rock]

112” actually.   
below average is what it is no matter the location. 

Damn, almost three times what we have

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[powderfreak]

58 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's the sense of what could have been and also the many, many near misses on the models. It's incredibly easy to get feet of digital snow here given the climate. Every slug of moisture seems to fizzle by the time it gets here, however. It would be nice to have one of these stretches with a couple decent SWFEs verify. Been modeled all winter.

Also, my area is beating every other spot in NH because I cashed in on the three big synoptic storms (early December, mid January, early February). Places that underperformed on those events are have a crappy winter because it's been kinda dead for long periods between those events. Like Alex, for example.

Yeah but that’s also how winter climate goes.  You don’t hit on every system and most winters one could say “what could have been” on numerous shortwaves or long stretches.  You get a stretch of cutters and it’s “what could’ve been” if those tracked 50 miles south, etc.

Looking at the daily snowfalls though on Cocorahs... has it been dead for long periods of time?  It looked like it snowed measurable there more days than not for like 6 weeks, ha.

I guess it just depends on perspective but aside from the area SE of the mountains in ME, it just doesn’t look that bad.  We just don’t get synoptic hits weekly unless it’s a banner winter.

[powderfreak]

54 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, trying to tell myself March is a winter month there. By March 15th winter is really on it's deathbed in MD (if it ever lived in the first place) but records say Randolph is good through early April.

Through the end of April is fair game at 1500ft in the northern mountains.  Heck last year the first 10 days of May had several snow events.

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah but that’s also how winter climate goes.  You don’t hit on every system and most winters one could say “what could have been” on numerous shortwaves or long stretches.  You get a stretch of cutters and it’s “what could’ve been” if those tracked 50 miles south, etc.

Looking at the daily snowfalls though on Cocorahs... has it been dead for long periods of time?  It looked like it snowed measurable there more days than not for like 6 weeks, ha.

I guess it just depends on perspective but aside from the area SE of the mountains in ME, it just doesn’t look that bad.  We just don’t get synoptic hits weekly unless it’s a banner winter.

It hasn't been that bad of course, but things have been quite active this February with synoptic events outside NNE. Been basically every week in SNE it seems. We have missed most of those in terms of anything meaningful. Aside from the early-month event, it has been rather boring. Flakes in the air are cool, but the upslope was better in January. Hoping for a grand finale period in March to push me to 130" or so.

[alex]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Through the end of April is fair game at 1500ft in the northern mountains.  Heck last year the first 10 days of May had several snow events.

This was mid May last year. Looong way to go (though personally I'm hoping for a much earlier end to winter!). 

[alex]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It hasn't been that bad of course, but things have been quite active this February with synoptic events outside NNE. Been basically every week in SNE it seems. We have missed most of those in terms of anything meaningful. Aside from the early-month event, it has been rather boring. Flakes in the air are cool, but the upslope was better in January. Hoping for a grand finale period in March to push me to 130" or so.

I think this last storm is what screwed us. It was all nice and puffy (Japan like as PF put it), and holding up great even if the upslope machine was not quite running at full power. Then this last storm knocked most of it down except for the larger chunks, so the vibe changed. Also, it gets old lol. 

[WinterWolf]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He’s been desperately trying to end it for many many weeks. He finds signals everywhere 

Agreed.  A couple weeks ago it was supposed to be over now.  Last week it was supposed to be over next week. 
 

Most times I don’t even read his novels anymore after the first sentence or two, cuz you know where it’s going to ramble to.  

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It hasn't been that bad of course, but things have been quite active this February with synoptic events outside NNE. Been basically every week in SNE it seems. We have missed most of those in terms of anything meaningful. Aside from the early-month event, it has been rather boring. Flakes in the air are cool, but the upslope was better in January. Hoping for a grand finale period in March to push me to 130" or so.

Oh I hear you, but it is climo.  I used to lose my mind a decade ago but you realize over time that yes, it does snow south of us and there will be periods when it’s much more active down south.  The jet stream and baroclinic zone hits its furthest south spot on average in January and February, so expect those months to have a better shot at storms missing to the south... and it can happen for prolonged periods of time.  Our sweet spot is early and late season when the climo gradients align a bit better.

At some point, every winter, there will be a period where everything is south.  Could have a January 2014 when we had more inches of rain in NNE than inches of snow in a period while Philly had several warning snow events between the cutters.

In the end, trust climo.  It always wins out long term despite short term frustrations.

 

[PWMan]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Now, The Op GFS has 3 cutters in the next 15 days, I bet we can lock them in place.

You mean we're not going to see 20+" over the next 10 days???

[PhineasC]

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Oh I hear you, but it is climo.  I used to lose my mind a decade ago but you realize over time that yes, it does snow south of us and there will be periods when it’s much more active down south.  The jet stream and baroclinic zone hits its furthest south spot on average in January and February, so expect those months to have a better shot at storms missing to the south... and it can happen for prolonged periods of time.  Our sweet spot is early and late season when the climo gradients align a bit better.

At some point, every winter, there will be a period where everything is south.  Could have a January 2014 when we had more inches of rain in NNE than inches of snow in a period while Philly had several warning snow events between the cutters.

In the end, trust climo.  It always wins out long term despite short term frustrations.

 

I think a couple days of upslope to freshen it all back up will help a lot.  

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, PWMan said:

You mean we're not going to see 20+" over the next 10 days???

I think it remains status quo.

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, trying to tell myself March is a winter month there. By March 15th winter is really on it's deathbed in MD (if it ever lived in the first place) but records say Randolph is good through early April.

LOL…  March?  MARCH?  At your site, even having to think about March as anything but winter is silly.  Yes, the sun angle is higher at that point, and in the bottom 10-20% of seasons you can certainly get a dud March that is sort of spring like, but by and large, it’s just going to keep on snowing for you.  Sure, there can be storms where we end up in the warm sector, but the average climatology is going to be quite snowy in March for the NNE mountains.  Heck, the average March snowfall here at our site is 30”, and that’s at 500’ - it’s got to be even higher up at your elevation.

And you can see what PF said: “Through the end of April is fair game at 1500ft in the northern mountains.”  That’s absolutely right, so don’t even give a second thought to March.  In an average temperature regime, and certainly in a below average one, you’re going to see a lot of snow in March and April.

May is not typically all that snowy around here, even at elevation, because it takes something notably below average with respect to temperatures, but May snow for the mountains certainly happens with some frequency.  It’s just not an “every year” sort of thing.  But don’t make the mistake of thinking of May as “spring”, or “warm” in the mountains of NNE.  People seem to do that just about every season, but it just ends up with moaning and groaning and icons with axes in their heads and all that sort of stuff.  The warmth just doesn’t generally take hold up here for real until the June 1^st/Memorial Day timeframe.

The mean/median date of snowpack melt out here at our site is in the April 15^th-20^th range, so it’s got to be close to May up at your site.  Unless we have some week in the next couple of months with highly anomalous warmth, you’re going to have that snow in your yard around for quite a while.  The data from your neighbor suggests there’s seven inches of liquid in the snowpack there, with likely more to come, so that will typically take a long time to fully melt out.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, J.Spin said:

LOL…  March?  MARCH?  At your site, even having to think about March as anything but winter is silly.  Yes, the sun angle is higher at that point, and in the bottom 10-20% of seasons you can certainly get a dud March that is sort of spring like, but by and large, it’s just going to keep on snowing for you.  Sure, there can be storms where we end up in the warm sector, but the average climatology is going to be quite snowy in March for the NNE mountains.  Heck, the average March snowfall here at our site is 30”, and that’s at 500’ - it’s got to be even higher up at your elevation.

And you can see what PF said: “Through the end of April is fair game at 1500ft in the northern mountains.”  That’s absolutely right, so don’t even give a second thought to March.  In an average temperature regime, and certainly in a below average one, you’re going to see a lot of snow in March and April.

May is not typically all that snowy around here, even at elevation, because it takes something notably below average with respect to temperatures, but May snow for the mountains certainly happens with some frequency.  It’s just not an “every year” sort of thing.  But don’t make the mistake of thinking of May as “spring”, or “warm” in the mountains of NNE.  People seem to do that just about every season, but it just ends up with moaning and groaning and icons with axes in their heads and all that sort of stuff.  The warmth just doesn’t generally take hold up here for real until the June 1^st/Memorial Day timeframe.

The mean/median date of snowpack melt out here at our site is in the April 15^th-20^th range, so it’s got to be close to May up at your site.  Unless we have some week in the next couple of months with highly anomalous warmth, you’re going to have that snow in your yard around for quite a while.  The data from your neighbor suggests there’s seven inches of liquid in the snowpack there, with likely more to come, so that will typically take a long time to fully melt out.

Thanks as always. Usually after a J. Spin pep talk it starts snowing well here within a few days.  

[NW_of_GYX]

You know the models look bad when this thread is just a bunch NNE posters taking about how much it used to snow. 

[alex]

42 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

LOL…  March?  MARCH?  At your site, even having to think about March as anything but winter is silly.  Yes, the sun angle is higher at that point, and in the bottom 10-20% of seasons you can certainly get a dud March that is sort of spring like, but by and large, it’s just going to keep on snowing for you.  Sure, there can be storms where we end up in the warm sector, but the average climatology is going to be quite snowy in March for the NNE mountains.  Heck, the average March snowfall here at our site is 30”, and that’s at 500’ - it’s got to be even higher up at your elevation.

And you can see what PF said: “Through the end of April is fair game at 1500ft in the northern mountains.”  That’s absolutely right, so don’t even give a second thought to March.  In an average temperature regime, and certainly in a below average one, you’re going to see a lot of snow in March and April.

May is not typically all that snowy around here, even at elevation, because it takes something notably below average with respect to temperatures, but May snow for the mountains certainly happens with some frequency.  It’s just not an “every year” sort of thing.  But don’t make the mistake of thinking of May as “spring”, or “warm” in the mountains of NNE.  People seem to do that just about every season, but it just ends up with moaning and groaning and icons with axes in their heads and all that sort of stuff.  The warmth just doesn’t generally take hold up here for real until the June 1^st/Memorial Day timeframe.

The mean/median date of snowpack melt out here at our site is in the April 15^th-20^th range, so it’s got to be close to May up at your site.  Unless we have some week in the next couple of months with highly anomalous warmth, you’re going to have that snow in your yard around for quite a while.  The data from your neighbor suggests there’s seven inches of liquid in the snowpack there, with likely more to come, so that will typically take a long time to fully melt out.

One thing to keep in mind and keep things in perspective... We REGULARLY get frost and freezes in June. 

[ScituateWX]

Winters of Yore!  Memory came across FB today.

[J.Spin]

2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

112” actually.   

below average is what it is no matter the location. 

 

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

How fast you get acclimated.  I’ve sensed some disappointment in those 100-inches lately even coming straight from Maryland lol.

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah but that’s also how winter climate goes.  You don’t hit on every system and most winters one could say “what could have been” on numerous shortwaves or long stretches.  You get a stretch of cutters and it’s “what could’ve been” if those tracked 50 miles south, etc.

Looking at the daily snowfalls though on Cocorahs... has it been dead for long periods of time?  It looked like it snowed measurable there more days than not for like 6 weeks, ha.

I guess it just depends on perspective but aside from the area SE of the mountains in ME, it just doesn’t look that bad.  We just don’t get synoptic hits weekly unless it’s a banner winter.

I wanted to follow up on a couple of PF’s comments as well – he’s making some great points.

Mean snowfall through Feb 18^th at our site is 108.3”, so if your neighbor is at 112” at this point, that’s probably very close to average.  As you said yourself, you’ll have to clear away that Mid Atlantic mindset about winter being anywhere near over, so you can’t think of that 112” as anything near your season total.  In an average season, your site has still got 60”+ of snow yet to fall.

And that snowpack at your place – I’m not sure you’re going to want to hear this, but it’s possible that it’s even slightly above average.  Your neighbor has been reporting snowpack depths between 2 and 3 feet for the past month, and we’d obviously have to look at the data, but that actually could be a bit high for this time of year.  Snowpack depth at your site probably peaks at some point in March, so it’s still increasing.  Also note that it looks like your neighbor is reporting 6 to 7 inches of liquid in the snowpack, and that may very well be ahead of average pace, even if the depth is about average.

Trust in your climate, and don’t let those SNE/MA Cobra Kai guys intimidate you with their sass about flash-in-the-pan progressive systems!