dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: In a perverse way, I am happy to see two inland runners/cutters show up on the models now. They will trend SE over time and turn into snowstorms for here (or keep going SE and go poof). So far this season, Everything has trended SE in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Saw this whole act in 2010, Have lived it now for the last month, 22.7" has fallen here since 01/02, Most saw that in one storm last week. I have avoided the 2010 act, thankfully...that was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Snow on snow on snow on snow so far this month let's keep up the beat. Yea, no complaints about the season in general....we had a boring month, but that is climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Chris gave good guidance on Sunday. A minor event but he thinks it will snow. I'm bullish on the whole week next week. Could be epic. 6-10 in the fields here and 8-14 in the woods. Could have 2' solid snowpack by next weekend with no big melt in sight. I read the AFD that you posted, Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I feel pretty confident my call for Methuen of 50-60" will bust a bit low, which pisses me off because I was torn on whether to go 50-60", of 60-70". Looks like I choose wrong. I think my seasonals will generally run a bit low in SNE, and high in NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel pretty confident my call for Methuen of 50-60" will bust a bit low, which pisses me off because I was torn on whether to go 50-60", of 60-70". Looks like I choose wrong. I think my seasonals will generally run a bit low in SNE, and high in NNE. Trust that nobody else is going to be annoyed if you bust too low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowEMass said: Trust that nobody else is going to be annoyed if you bust too low. I'll be ambivalent because I want to be right, but its certainly better than busting high, like I have the past two seasons....started to feel like Henry Margusity without the degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NAM is doing the pseudo-phase that the GGEM did last night....that would be bad for the 2/16 threat. Hopefully it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAM is doing the pseudo-phase that the GGEM did last night....that would be bad for the 2/16 threat. Hopefully it's wrong. Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We need a 2015 pattern where the lows are swinging north a little better....(southern and eastern) Maine got crushed during that too, not just SNE. Recently storms have been getting shoved east at the last second before they can get further north. At least this next storm looks like it will gain latitude a lot better than previous ones. Fixed. Jan 27-28 was a great storm (wish I'd been here to see it) but the rest was meh, climaxed by the VD massacre. Lots of time for things to change for the better (or . . ) Seems like the only storms this season where I've done as good or better than points south have been 4:1 slop or low end advisory. March for payback? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is doing the pseudo-phase that the GGEM did last night....that would be bad for the 2/16 threat. Hopefully it's wrong. Yes, that’s the biggest threat to the system right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 hours ago, RDRY said: The 17th storm just vanished on the CMC. It'll probably miraculously reappear next run. But what form does it take? ... this winter has carried about with an insidious under-the-radar propensity for ever diminishing returns.. I'd say perhaps less insidious now because it's pretty obvious at this point. If/when the GGEM brings it back ... it'll likely be some pallid representation of what it originally was in/when it was first detected in the model's deeper field extended range - I mentioned this a couple of times and am hoping - probably futilely .. - for folks to take it seriously. The models are consummately correcting just about everything passing through the middle range, morphing them into less mechanical presence ( 'normalizing' in statistics and physical vernacular) in the general ambience. It almost doesn't seem to matter what it is... I like the metaphor. Seeing the moon toeing its way over the eastern horizon on a clear evening, it's looming so large as to portend an impending planetary collision. Only to rise higher into the sky and as it comes into a realistic focus and it is far less imposing. The models seem to first detect events and features hugely at the edge of their 'frames of reference,' - perhaps as a seasonal bias that is endemic to this type of general hemispheric circulation's situational anomalies ... don't know, but it is definitely a repeating pattern of corrective behavior. This thing for the 17th is doing exactly the same thing... rinse repeat ... The GFS has flattened it like 9.8% per run, across the last 3 cycles ... It'll come back a couple of 9.8's ..but then enfeeble another series ...until in the end we arrive to an over-warned ordeal ... like going to a meet up with a Tindr profile that proves she had 'er junk Photoshopped - Before continuing ... this does not mean a dystopian cryo -bomb of deadly proportions is not going to happen... So, keep one's e-psychotropic-heroine needles sterilized... Should 1978 walk through the door with the advantages of modern CC PWAT to push the 50" contour out to Orange Massachusetts ... I don't want that to diminish the significance of the this snark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS cooled again Don't ignore the fact that it's a "mere" 2 mb weaker - not that you are just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 ICON is a Mid-atlantic special...mostly whiff for here. Gets the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: ICON is a Mid-atlantic special...mostly whiff for here. Gets the south coast. Sounds like Sunday is all over the place. Edit: Or are you referring to Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Don't ignore the fact that it's a "mere" 2 mb weaker - not that you are just sayn' Its running into confluence, that is why. I don't think it means any less snowfall for SNE because otherwise, it would track further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is doing the pseudo-phase that the GGEM did last night....that would be bad for the 2/16 threat. Hopefully it's wrong. That "phasing" you are detecting in some of these 'lesser' dependable guidance types are, in spirit, really honing the original 11th - 15th .. 17th period of risk I was trying to elucidate a while ago... The models are proving that was valid in my estimation - the total atmospheric space is just not 'capable' - for lack of better word - in maximizing it so we get those less than proficient variations like that weird positive tilted version by the GGEM. What we have is a favorable Canadian deep layer set up ... but the PNA --> PNAP aspect isn't ( apparently ...) cooperating. The GEFs back whence carried (...and in fact still do as of last night's EOFs) on with a concerted rise in the PNA ...so therein was justified speculation that we may see a better western ridge response. Nope f! just missed huh. - it's like a prodigal kid with all kinds of potential hangs out with the wrong crowd and disappoints the community. haha... Sometimes gifts and affluence are wasted.. But up N...there are blocking blips decaying and they tend to rotate S in the ongoing integral large synoptic circulation/climo, but the the coupled/ subtended ( latitude...) SPV fragments are held in stasis in wait... That's a favorable canvas whether it gets used in a subsume / .. drop in capture cirque Du Soleil scenario or not.. Usual, Pac wave squirts through the westerlies and on it's heel the rising PNA ( actually f'ing happens - christ ) and sends a +PNAP jolt across the continent - those breakdown said stasis and the whole structure collapses S, and our poor S / stream wave had no clue what was about to befall it - lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its running into confluence, that is why. I don't think it means any less snowfall for SNE because otherwise, it would track further west. You're right about the confluence and attending +PP ( pressure pattern...) offering huge BL resistance ...such that the low can't .. blah blah blah ... we end up in that EPS sort of set up But I'm being ignored of an entirely different aspect, one that is empirical and not merely a sentiment or anecdotal. It's not the best news for storm enthusiasts so ... heh. Go wonder - everything is proving over-assessed, correcting weaker ... with greater frequency. Snow? OKAY, well ...if it weakens enough ... it won't do that either. I don't ?think? it will weaken that far... But, I lean toward a minoring event until such time as this gets continuity at < than 120 hours. so we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: You're right about the confluence and attending +PP ( pressure pattern...) offering huge BL resistance ...such that the low can't .. blah blah blah ... we end up in that EPS sort of set up But I'm being ignored of an entirely different aspect this is empirical and not merely a sentiment or anecdotal everything is proving over-assessed, correct weaker ... with greater frequency. Snow? OKAY, well ...if it weakens enough ... it won't do that either. I don't ?think? it will weaken that far... But, I lean toward a minoring event until such time as this gets continuity at < than 120 hours. so we'll see I foresee at least a good 4-8" deal, and maybe more like 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I foresee at least a good 4-8" deal, and maybe more like 6-10". Prolly not a bad early guess/correction based upon seasonal success/ ... returns. We've had a two "big ones" - tho that is subjective ... whatever ... otherwise, it's been a nickle-dime diet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Prolly not a bad early guess/correction based upon seasonal success/ ... returns. We've had a two "big ones" - tho that is subjective ... whatever ... otherwise, it's been a nickle-dime diet. I foresee at least a good 4-8" deal, and maybe more like 6-10"....classic SWFE that includes a digging SW to the west attenuating, as it encounters said confluent flow over se Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 If you have clandestine blockbuster aspirations, then you are going to end up flustered because this is not that type of system....but I see it as a high percentage play for moderate impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Nicely done with that graphic Ray. This weenie appreciates it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Nicely done with that graphic Ray. This weenie appreciates it Doing those exercises helps me understand it, too.....like homework. If you don't practice, then it can be tough to grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 We take the 12z Goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS is solid. Lingering -SN too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Don't like GFS. Turns south coast to ice after thump. Then rain and potential flooding on the system a few days later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Don't like GFS. Turns south coast to ice after thump. Then rain and potential flooding on the system a few days later? Feb thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Feb thaw. Hope it's a reload and not a flip. Probably 3 to 6 before ice on south coast on GFS depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Don't like GFS. Turns south coast to ice after thump. Then rain and potential flooding on the system a few days later? That is 168hrs away. Looks like the block up near Greenland is building again..so I'm not sold on pure rain on that one. But even so, pattern looks good after 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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