mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Good discussion by Chris at GYX. You can always tell when he or Ekster write it. Forecast Details: Ensemble guidance continues to show strong support for a high PoP/low QPF event Sun night. S/WV trof will traverse the Srn edge an anomalously deep upper low over Srn Canada. Confluent flow over the Northeast will tend to inhibit further strengthening of the wave...and as a result lighter QPF is anticipated. This is also leading to higher chances for snow in S and W zones before forcing tends to weaken. I feel like model PoP is too low however despite low QPF output. So I have increased PoP in the aforementioned zones to low likely. It is beyond Sun that things become more interesting. Flow starts becoming more amplified as a series of S/WV trofs carves out the longwave pattern deeper and deeper. As these eject out of the trof and head NEwe they will offer our chances for snow. 11.00z ensemble guidance is really beginning to consolidate around Tue night/Wed system. There is yet another robust but more variance for a system Fri or Sat. As for the midweek potential...strong high pressure anchored N of New England would favor colder temps and likely predominately snow scenario. 11.00z EPS has a large majority of moderate to heavy snow members...while the GEFS runs the gamut from null events to moderate to heavy. Regardless...NBM PoP was low chance to slight chance and I feel this is way too low given the ensemble support for the last couple of days. I have increased PoP closer to 50 percent for most of the forecast area. This is both higher than climatology but not so high that I am completely discounting the drier GEFS. The end of the week potential carries much more uncertainty given that it is 7 or 8 days away. In a reversal the GEFS is actually more robust with this event than the EPS...but the NBM PoP between 30 and 40 percent seemed reasonable given how far out this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 12:06 PM, CoastalWx said: Canadian has nothing, but a weak follow up wave right on Monday. Looks like that screws up the Tuesday Wednesday deal. Expand Canadian sort of partially phased the arctic shortwave with the southern stream deal so it ends up as this long stung out wave. No other guidance pseudo-phases them, though the 06z NAM looks like it would come close (but still not do it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 We in the GFS camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 12:47 PM, ORH_wxman said: Canadian sort of partially phased the arctic shortwave with the southern stream deal so it ends up as this long stung out wave. No other guidance pseudo-phases them, though the 06z NAM looks like it would come close (but still not do it) Expand Yeah just looking now. I think many would take a euro/gfs compromise. Hopefully we are losing the more amped solutions from previous days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Possible we may see a break after later next week? After that, looks like Greenland ridge maybe flexes a bit more and pushes SW while Dateline ridge flexes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks Flexy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 10:09 AM, MJO812 said: Gfs for Tuesday Expand That looks like a boring event for me on the GFS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 1:44 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: That looks like a boring event for me on the GFS. Expand I'll take it! ..it's a lot better than going virtually snowless for 6+ weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 1:50 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: I'll take it! ..it's a lot better than going virtually snowless for 6+ weeks Expand Reality will be further north, anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 06z EPS cooled again 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 1:53 PM, ORH_wxman said: 06z EPS cooled again Expand Not a surprising trend given that confluence over se Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 11:51 AM, MJO812 said: Weenies dream Gefs is more squashed for Tuesday Expand 06z GFS no dream for here - 2 or 3 whiffs/fringes followed by 2 cutters (then a day 14 snowstorm .) Won't happen that way, fortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Only 5 more days to go........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:00 PM, tamarack said: 06z GFS no dream for here - 2 or 3 whiffs/fringes followed by 2 cutters (then a day 14 snowstorm .) Won't happen that way, fortunately. Expand One mans dream is another's nightmare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:01 PM, dryslot said: One mans dream is another's nightmare. Expand GFS is a nightmare for you....even I would prefer it further north. No sense sweating details at this stage, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS is a nightmare for you....even I would prefer it further north. No sense sweating details at this stage, though. Expand This whole month has been one, Wouldn't shock me if it continued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:05 PM, dryslot said: This whole month has been one, Wouldn't shock me if it continued. Expand Me neither. I'm all for switching it up, even though I have done well here.....don't think the majority would agree. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 1:58 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not a surprising trend given that confluence over se Canada. Expand This is a great track for all of us, let’s see what other guidance says but the gfs being south doesn’t concern me at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Me neither. I'm all for switching it up, even though I have done well here.....don't think the majority would agree. lol Expand Obviously not when most are sitting with over 30+" and were 12" here for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:05 PM, dryslot said: This whole month has been one, Wouldn't shock me if it continued. Expand We need a 2015 pattern where the lows are swinging north a little better....Maine got crushed during that too, not just SNE. Recently storms have been getting shoved east at the last second before they can get further north. At least this next storm looks like it will gain latitude a lot better than previous ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:07 PM, mahk_webstah said: This is a great track for all of us, let’s see what other guidance says but the gfs being south doesn’t concern me at this point Expand Nah, me neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:00 PM, tamarack said: 06z GFS no dream for here - 2 or 3 whiffs/fringes followed by 2 cutters (then a day 14 snowstorm .) Won't happen that way, fortunately. Expand It's definitely a bit of a cruel run for parts of NNE. Whiffs, cutters, then more whiffs. About as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: We need a 2015 pattern where the lows are swinging north a little better....Maine got crushed during that too, not just SNE. Recently storms have been getting shoved east at the last second before they can get further north. At least this next storm looks like it will gain latitude a lot better than previous ones. Expand This is the Jeff's antichrist pattern....storms bailing ENE, instead of NE. Ya hate to see it- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: We need a 2015 pattern where the lows are swinging north a little better....Maine got crushed during that too, not just SNE. Recently storms have been getting shoved east at the last second before they can get further north. At least this next storm looks like it will gain latitude a lot better than previous ones. Expand That is why i'm not huge on blocking, I'll take my chances on little or none, At least i will see some type of precip rather then none, This happens a lot up here and with the contour of the coastline and my proximity we will get grazed or whiffed, Most would not even notice it as they bask in the snow further south, I need these systems to track into the GOM, Tracking east of NS does little to nothing for here, I will say that next weeks looks good with the trajectory its coming from, Sunday is another crap shoot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is the Jeff's antichrist pattern....storms bailing ENE, instead of NE. Ya hate to see it- Expand Saw this whole act in 2010, Have lived it now for the last month, 22.7" has fallen here since 01/02, Most saw that in one storm last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:13 PM, dryslot said: That is why i'm not huge on blocking, I'll take my chances on little or none, At least i will see some type of precip rather then none, This happens a lot up here and with the contour of the coastline and my proximity we will get grazed or whiffed, Most would not even notice it as they bask in the snow further south, I need these systems to track into the GOM, Tracking east of NS does little to nothing for here, I will say that next weeks looks good with the trajectory its coming from, Sunday is another crap shoot here. Expand In a perverse way, I am happy to see two inland runners/cutters show up on the models now. They will trend SE over time and turn into snowstorms for here (or keep going SE and go poof). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:13 PM, dryslot said: That is why i'm not huge on blocking, I'll take my chances on little or none, At least i will see some type of precip rather then none, This happens a lot up here and with the contour of the coastline and my proximity we will get grazed or whiffed, Most would not even notice it as they bask in the snow further south, I need these systems to track into the GOM, Tracking east of NS does little to nothing for here, I will say that next weeks looks good with the trajectory its coming from, Sunday is another crap shoot here. Expand I think you should get some Tuesday. Sunday is crap, anyway...not missing much. Kev can post as many confused emoji's as he wants, it won't change the fact that its a couple of inches of fluff. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Can we get just one low to pass over SE Mass to fill the lakes and ponds and then meander in the GOM for a while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:13 PM, dryslot said: That is why i'm not huge on blocking, I'll take my chances on little or none, At least i will see some type of precip rather then none, This happens a lot up here and with the contour of the coastline and my proximity we will get grazed or whiffed, Most would not even notice it as they bask in the snow further south, I need these systems to track into the GOM, Tracking east of NS does little to nothing for here, I will say that next weeks looks good with the trajectory its coming from, Sunday is another crap shoot here. Expand Chris gave good guidance on Sunday. A minor event but he thinks it will snow. I'm bullish on the whole week next week. Could be epic. 6-10 in the fields here and 8-14 in the woods. Could have 2' solid snowpack by next weekend with no big melt in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 2:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think you should get some Tuesday. Sunday is crap, anyway...not missing much. Kev can post as many confused emoji's as he wants, it won't change the fact that its a couple of inches of fluff. Expand Snow on snow on snow on snow so far this month let's keep up the beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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