mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like that this the zonked NAM run that mocks the ARW. I don't know...I've seen the NAM often be the canary in the coal mine with storms at this point, and be the first to show a big shift. It seems this pattern is one where a number of the mets and serious hobbyists like yourself, have said that big shifts will happen quickly as more data is assimilated. Not every time, but it happens a lot. I guess we'll see where we are by about 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: But she gone ? She had us at hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, mahk_webstah said: I don't know...I've seen the NAM often be the canary in the coal mine with storms at this point, and be the first to show a big shift. It seems this pattern is one where a number of the mets and serious hobbyists like yourself, have said that big shifts will happen quickly as more data is assimilated. Not every time, but it happens a lot. I guess we'll see where we are by about 1pm. Hoping for a rocking 12z suite. This forum is kinda depressing when the SNE crew is down in the dumps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Normally I'd toss the NAM if it was the only thing zonked like that, but there is other guidance supporting it. GEFS were quite robust and plenty of 06z EPS members were on board even if the OP wasn't quite there yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: She had us at hello. And they’re real and they’re spectacular. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 19 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Something could pop/or come back short lead time in this set up..very volatile it seems. Hmmmm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I feel like that this is the zonked NAM run that mocks the ARW. Feel like the NAM has 1 more NW jog in it and maybe squeeze a little more QPF out of the atmosphere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Hmmmm.... Maybe we all just sit back and hope for the best? You never know?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: She wasn't? For someone that supposedly has a lot of knowledge about weather, You ask a lot of question from the mets. Congrats on your degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 RGEM does not smell what the NAMs cooking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Feel like the NAM has 1 more NW jog in it and maybe squeeze a little more QPF out of the atmosphere. Sure, why not? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Maybe we all just sit back and hope for the best? You never know?? Please scold me hard teacher 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats on your degree? Yes, Thanks, Any Rains to Maines? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: RGEM does not smell what the NAMs cooking Yeah just a small improvement from 06z....not much help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I wish we could adapt a rule/policy that all references to specific events must include a date said event in question is referring ... If the post does not contain a date it's content is intending to hone .. it gets torn up shredded in an anime where the posts material is destroyed right before the poster's eyes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah just a small improvement from 06z....not much help. The RGEM is one of the easiest models to hug when it looks good and toss when it looks bad without giving it a second thought. The thing is just that versatile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 No help from the ICON either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: The RGEM is one of the easiest models to hug when it looks good and toss when it looks bad without giving it a second thought. The thing is just that versatile. It definitely is "The Ukie of shorter term models". It loves to have some weird solutions and isn't afraid to make big swings. I do like it inside of about 24-36 hours though....it actually did a half-decent job identifying that Maine/NH resurgence in the snow in the last event. It was a little bonkers otu at 48 hours, but more reasonable inside of 30h. But I'm definitely not too worried about what it is doing at 78 or 84 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: No help from the ICON either. Are you saying the 84 hr NAM may have let us down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: No help from the ICON either. So that means it trended well SE since it was a big hit at 06z. At least the other guidance was trending NW....even if incrementally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: No help from the ICON either. Didn’t come out on SV yet it’s south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: The RGEM is one of the easiest models to hug when it looks good and toss when it looks bad without giving it a second thought. The thing is just that versatile. I put very little stock in it and it's big brother. Mostly will just check it for trends or to look for any consensus across models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Didn’t come out on SV yet it’s south? I am not seeing it anywhere. TT or WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: So that means it trended well SE since it was a big hit at 06z. At least the other guidance was trending NW....even if incrementally. More of a joke, Its late and hasn't run yet so we don't know, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Didn’t come out on SV yet it’s south? See below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Feel like the NAM has 1 more NW jog in it and maybe squeeze a little more QPF out of the atmosphere. I assume we mean Sunday evening in coverage here - I was thinking when I looked at the last three cycle -trend of the NAM, that this smacks pretty painfully as the typical NAM-o-rama-ding-dong circus clown act of popping the low deeper and ominously NW like frames in a movie, clicked along in three or four short cycles. You know...go to bed, wake enabled. Lol. I mused internally, '..This may even do this one more run and get even more impressive, before boom boom boom three cycle trend goes half way back to the original nothing...' And what we end up with is a flat wave of 1/3 potency overall, tickling LI/S RI and the Cape with light snow... towing along an angry bevy of blue-balled storm neurotics It's not a declarative forecast lol... I just have the experience - ... the NAM between 48 and 60 hours back in the day, almost always had a NW position bias... Now, granted...we are out there in the 72 hour frame, but... I'm not sure if the former has ever been addressed when they increased it's range to 84 hours 10 .. 15 years ago whenever that happened. I may have a bias against it for those early years - sure... Will's right - the NAM is not alone though... I am not dim or stubborn to that notion. So I guess ... grudgingly, we have table the notion - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: I am not seeing it anywhere. TT or WB. I knew i would get a few with that, Have to keep it lively in here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It is running now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: I knew i would get a few with that, Have to keep it lively in here. You were posting from a snowmobile at speed and made a mistake. Just fess up man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: More of a joke, Its late and hasn't run yet so we don't know, Lol....you are technically correct. It didn't help us at 12z. Didn't hurt us either though....at least not yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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