Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, JC-CT said: phase you bastahd Good luck with the fast flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Good luck with the fast flow. I don't need luck when I can yell profanities at a supercomputer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 It may partially but thats a huge bump back west on the 12z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Here it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 changed my mind do exactly this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 That's basically the srn vort too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hopefully doesn't end up being that nam zoinked run out at hr 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Ha, Ray gets the deffy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 That strung out piece of vorticity along the northern tier really helps to lift that ULL out and heights raise ahead of the the trailing s/w allowing it to dig more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ha, Ray gets the deffy band. Cool....long range NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Good luck with the fast flow. No more inland runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Our pack isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. We’ll have some warmish small events but other than that...I see a good month ahead from a pack and storm perspective. I do like where we stand. I am at 32.4" for the season, not exactly sure what my seasonal average is here, 40-50"? But we should be able to at least pull seasonal averages at least. The pack has leveled off to about 10 inches and its pretty solid as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: No more inland runner? Can't recall saying specifically "inland runner", but you can never rule out change over to rain like the ICON showed yesterday where the SLP runs up over E MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Can't recall saying specifically "inland runner", but you can never rule out change over to rain like the ICON showed yesterday where the SLP runs up over E MA. I think hugger was what was being mentioned earlier when some of these runs several days back showed those possibilities before they lost the storm all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I'd appreciate that event, nice 4-8 region wide during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Oh Nammy. Hope it has a clue. I've got a pack to build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 She's back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: I think hugger was what was being mentioned earlier when some of these runs several days back showed those possibilities before they lost the storm all together. And a hugger is still in the envelope. If Kevin refers to an "inland runner" as something that cuts west of Albany, I doubt that scenario. Any storm that crosses land in SNE (outside CC/Islands) is "inland" to me. Is it over water? no. A hugger, as well, is over water, not over land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think hugger was what was being mentioned earlier when some of these runs several days back showed those possibilities before they lost the storm all together. Yeah, not fair to say anyone had a bad call on this. The storm didn't just trend east, it basically fell off the plots altogether it was so suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: And a hugger is still in the envelope. If Kevin refers to an "inland runner" as something that cuts west of Albany, I doubt that scenario. Any storm that crosses land in SNE (outside CC/Islands) is "inland" to me. Is it over water? no. A hugger, as well, is over water, not over land. Another big move like the NAM just made and it'll be a PF to Phin track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I do like where we stand. I am at 32.4" for the season, not exactly sure what my seasonal average is here, 40-50"? But we should be able to at least pull seasonal averages at least. The pack has leveled off to about 10 inches and its pretty solid as well. We’re in the 45-50 range if you take the last 20yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Another big move like the NAM just made and it'll be a PF to Phin track. Yep. You can have it. I hope your location is buried under 6' of snow by mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Another big move like the NAM just made and it'll be a PF to Phin track. Good luck that that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 The 12z NAM is @NorEastermass128 approved. 6-9" for most in SNE, less for far western areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 I feel like that this is the zonked NAM run that mocks the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Good luck that that. My guess is this was just the NAM being itself. The GFS will be something far less drastic, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And a hugger is still in the envelope. If Kevin refers to an "inland runner" as something that cuts west of Albany, I doubt that scenario. Any storm that crosses land in SNE (outside CC/Islands) is "inland" to me. Is it over water? no. A hugger, as well, is over water, not over land. I have always thought this and i agree, Even in a fast flow other wise it would be a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 -- Two vaguely coherent systems out there actually .. The 8th, now on life-support, and as of 00z the Euro introduces the 9th more aggressively than prior runs - and apparently something's up with the 06z Euro? Not sure which feature is in discussion regarding the 06z Euro. Scott's right - whatever happens of either of these two systems they are in and out with rapidity. The compression/speed saturation doesn't lend the other way. Could be sprayed by several 1-3 or 3-5" ers over the next 10 days. I wouldn't even be shocked if the 8th came back, and 9th pancakes S again... Fast flow with high sensitivity for latitude placement based on utterly invisibly subtle physical exertions, means that positioning these 'events' in space and time will require shorter lead to gather confidence in what happens and where. -- I mentioned later in the evening last night about the 11-15th event period of interest.. As is typical at this sort of deep range, whatever is triggered in that range, in models, is wobbling spatial-temporally .. ranging to other models not having anything. I have seen it back closer to the 12th, 13th ...18z GFS had a juggernaut centered on the 14th... 00z, bombs eastern NE with a ferocious cyclone through the Harbor. These are variations that - to me - appear tapping into the emerging general numerical instability ..not necessary honing ( duh ) anything necessarily real. But there may be tremendous baroclinic gradient between 35 and 45 N .. left in the wake of next week's -EPO cold soak/compression flow.. Rather classical, regime change then offers correction event potential. Last three night's tele progs at CPC indicate the -NAO renewal ..and most op. and their ens means flag west limb variant ... whilst the PNA tandem rises in the GEFs mean to ~ +1 SD... telecon convergence ... But first we deal with these smaller synoptic perturbation ... and keep dreams alive that one over-produces. I don't think the ceiling is too high in this regime-like pattern incoming because aforementioned compression not allowing for differential processes to unfurl ... but, who knows - the ICON solutions from the other day, while obviously unlikely, didn't formulate in a physical vacuum of forcing in that guidance so it shows that nothing's impossible. Or like this 12z NAM run ..heh.. but, the NAM's patented NW bias beyond 48 hours of 10 years ago ...I don't know if that tendency has somehow been corrected and that smacks as that. It's like this in this maddening type of flow construct - yin and yang pro and con head game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I have always thought this and i agree, Even in a fast flow other wise it would be a cutter. But she gone ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: But she gone ? She wasn't? For someone that supposedly has a lot of knowledge about weather, You ask a lot of question from the mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now