CT Rain Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I wonder if it's better to just ditch Sunday and see what we can do with the Monday/Tuesday s/w. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I wasnt around but i know North Haven had the Jackpot of the whole Northeast at 30" for Jan 11-12 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I always assumed some of the real electric brain types here "cheated" a little with a detailed snow diary they could reference when thinking back about a storm, but even that is a very impressive thing to maintain over the years. But some of you I think just have this stuff seared into long-term storage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes...the storms that go almost due north along 71W or so can hammer most of NE...or like a track NNE over the benchmark and into Bay of Fundy like dryslot said. Bleccch! That's a snow to deluge track for Kittery to Fort Kent. Though I like the 2nd choice. I can recall only one event that tagged CHI, NYC and CAR with big snows, April 1982. None of NYC's top 10 snows did all that much in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I wonder if it's better to just ditch Sunday and see what we can do with the Monday/Tuesday s/w. I know, I was thinking that too. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: I have a hard time remembering what i had for dinner last night. 24" here on 12/6-7, one of only 4 events in 23 winters to hit all the blizzard criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I always assumed some of the real electric brain types here "cheated" a little with a detailed snow diary they could reference when thinking back about a storm, but even that is a very impressive thing to maintain over the years. But some of you I think just have this stuff seared into long-term storage. Like how to cook a great steak on the grill, its seared. Will has a photographic mind, for real, but yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I wasnt around but i know North Haven had the Jackpot of the whole Northeast at 30" for Jan 11-12 2011 Savoy... topped 40" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know, I was thinking that too. Not sure. Why not a fast mover that gets out quickly on Sunday evening, and then something Tuesday? I mean, if we are going to ask Mother Nature to make a schedule change for us, why not be greedy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I feel we want just a little more wave spacing so heights can respond ahead of next week. GFS looks better early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The ICON slowing that 72 hour position down by 300 or 400 km in the longitudinal axis out there careening down the Front Range region of the west, might be a good thing for winter storm enthusiasts ... I mean, there's a direct homage to the aforementioned sensitivity issue in this guidance - these ever so presumptively innocuous variances, run to run, are making for the difference between 12" thunder storm snows like the 18z run yesterday ...versus a gentle light to moderate Currier&Ives CCB 06z over night... Now, we have just slight timing difference allowing that intermediate stream wave in the MV to remain more cohesive and boom, back to a robuster short duration major impactor - Certainly is an exciting 12z solution ...and I have been watching the ICON's systemic handling this winter ( once and for all ..) to give it a chance ( so to speak ) and have noted that among some other frustrations ... it tends to too much warmth in the boundary layer - sample size is short ...so bear with that... The antecedent air mass benefits from a fast flow in that the cold reload post Friday's system prooobably does not have time to modify substantively and any 8th ICONic fantasy ...however borne of truth shall it become... would need to be a colder solution modulation ( most likely ) anywhere NW of the low track. I have seen the ICON look consistent and blow it passing the baton through the temporal seam of the mid range into nearer terms in this trial so... Please, just bring back the Euro solutions yesterday, that were mid way between the unlikely history bombs, and the 00z GFS zealous cremation shit ... and then we'll have the seeds of consensus ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I feel we want just a little more wave spacing so heights can respond ahead of next week. GFS looks better early on. The spacing came to my mind as well, The GFS didn't cut it and looked worse then 06z in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, dryslot said: The spacing came to my mid as well, The GFS didn't cut it and looked worse then 06z in the end. Yeah, it never sharpened enough to turn it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 17 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I wonder if it's better to just ditch Sunday and see what we can do with the Monday/Tuesday s/w. Repeat 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Yeah, it never sharpened enough to turn it up the coast. Fast flow doesn't allow this to amplify in time, Would need to see that happening much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 53 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I feel we want just a little more wave spacing so heights can respond ahead of next week. GFS looks better early on. I just commented on that ... agreed. It seems this ICON fosters these robuster solutions whenever it opens up even a little in the timing of the Pac S/W ( 72 hours for example ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Looking @H5 from the 06z run and 12z run on the GFS over the CONUS shows how you can't rule out anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Sunday, Tuesday. Just give me some accumulating snow. No CA screwgie please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Gfs whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 GGEM is well out to sea as well, though somehow it was an improvement over 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Ryan completely ruled it out on Twitter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan completely ruled it out on Twitter . Looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2/9 seems like a much better threat for something...it will have a lot more room, but that also means potential for messier solutions as well. Both GGEM/GFS show precip in here. The antecedent airmass is pretty cold though so at leas that provides a little more wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is well out to sea as well, though somehow it was an improvement over 00z. Not gonna cut it with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GGEM is well out to sea as well, though somehow it was an improvement over 00z. The storm right after seems like the one anyway. Whenever these storms are backed up like this one always becomes the dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 2/9 seems like a much better threat for something...it will have a lot more room, but that also means potential for messier solutions as well. Both GGEM/GFS show precip in here. The antecedent airmass is pretty cold though so at leas that provides a little more wiggle room. Big changes on 12z GFS CMC next week, probably wrong, the vortex pushes into Montana instead of Minnesota and trough axis is further west, doesn't get as cold as run the risk verbatim of a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: The storm right after seems like the one anyway. Whenever these storms are backed up like this one always becomes the dominant. Exactly, and it’s tough to know at extended lead which one will emerge as the dominant one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Big changes on 12z GFS CMC next week, probably wrong, the vortex pushes into Montana instead of Minnesota and trough axis is further west, doesn't get as cold as run the risk verbatim of a cutter. I think it would be hard to get a true cutter...there is a pretty stout Davis Strait/Baffin Island block. Can still happen if everything lines up perfectly but I'd def hedge colder. Even if it's icy/sleety overrunning mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 56 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I wonder if it's better to just ditch Sunday and see what we can do with the Monday/Tuesday s/w. 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know, I was thinking that too. Not sure. Sure, why don’t you guys talk to this dude and see what he can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB_Wchstr Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs whiff I’d rather see a whiff than a warm solution. Seems like those never work out in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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