February the climo snow month

[Snowcrazed71]

I swear some of you people are crazy LOL. How many times does it happen 3 or 4 days out. Only for the storm to be pulled back in. I'm Actually rolling on the floor laughing at some of your reactions. I think half of you need Xanax LOL. Please. Stop the madness and give it time. Regardless, we just had a huge storm ( and some people still are not satisfied ). 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Icon brings the LP sub 980 on the gulf of Maine 

That's where i would want any model to bring it truthfully, I bet Phinn would agree.........lol

[PhineasC]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I swear some of you people are crazy LOL. How many times does it happen 3 or 4 days out. Only for the storm to be pulled back in. I'm Actually rolling on the floor laughing at some of your reactions. I think half of you need Xanax LOL. Please. Stop the madness and give it time. Regardless, we just had a huge storm ( and some people still are not satisfied ). 

Some folks in SNE were totally porked by this storm. I can totally understand the desire to get back on the horse and chase the next one in that case. Like getting a rebound GF after a bad breakup. LOL

[Baroclinic Zone]

That ULL over the GL lifts out in time allowing heights to rebound and sharpen the trough.

[Typhoon Tip]

As Walt and others have pointed out ...this is a highly sensitive to small perturbations in streams causing forecaster/determinism headaches - so out of the gates this needs to be built into people's awareness: we enter a lower confidence modeling period in general, spanning the 4th through the lead up to whatever happens nearing the Ides of the month.   There is also a tandem emergence of a robust -NAO (western limb variety ) ballooning near the D. Straight and this is adding a tricky wild card.  

Fwiw and having said that, I am relatively more impressed with the 11-15th time frame, actually, than either Friday's ... or the 8th.    

By Friday, the whole of the continent and in fact the quatra hemispheric scope has/is entered(ng) into an N/ stream dominant circulation type.   Because of the nature of what that entails.. then considering existential model usage and familiarization with their biases therein:

-- the GFS probably runs away with suppression/shearing tendencies and will thus have difficulty even seeing narrow "needle thread" events.  This will at times be so extreme that even desperately flat waves, all but entirely damped out and holding onto mere threads of identity get taxed yet further by that model's Marxist physics ( lol ).

-- the Euro -ilk will ( excuse the anthropomorphism ...) "attempt" too hard to compensate N/ stream related longitudinal stressing  - some of which is of course going to be real. It perhaps 'corrects' for it when the anomaly gets excessive - just a hunch - and I think 120 kts canvased circulation eddy wind is getting there.  It's like it creates a window via correction processes, then capitalizes it's own creation using the extraordinary baroclinic gradient that the fast flow inherently caps shut ... Whatever it is doing or however it gets there... it is probably owing to engineering that historic 960 mb circular arctic sander bomb low it attempt to grind Worcester off the face of the Earth just a couple a 12z's ago.  

Friday .. is the leading edge of a -EPO or quasi(pulsed) -EPO surge of cold loading ... resulting from constructive interference with ridging between the arctic and polar streams ...however briefly, over the NE Pacific. The affects downstream from those changes are heralded along by that Friday torpedo in the westerlies.  The entire geopotential medium is the process of becoming gradient saturated, and together with the impulse's own 140 kt jet max, rockets in the change. It is an interesting circumstance that emerges out of that quickening flow. Its drilling the baroclinic nexus so fast, it is outpacing the advection terms ( WAA ), and that forces the triple point to zip shut down the cold frontal length as the cold front bulldozes under the warm sector faster than that lead air mass mix out... That will also mean less time or success for warm intrusion N of ~ mid Jersey/NYC ... I've seen that type of frontal tapestry in fast flow regime-like circumstances, ...many times, and this appears existentially textbook.  So what that means, is probably not a huge warm up before the R-wave rollout re-introduces the -EPO loading cold to the 40th parallel across the continent... But it could also introduce a 'smells like rain' period of wet aggregates prior to cold sweep clearing the coast ... which set stage for next Monday? 

The 8th latter event suffers the same speed headaches.  There is enough presentation as others have noted, across the bevy of less dependable guidance types ... but also hinted in the EPS and GEFs ... These open progressive waves can bomb ... they have to be precisely how the 18/00z ICONic solutions carried it - pristine handling... Okay... It's too early to thread that that, unfortunately .. the only way to   scaffold confidence and compensate for the exceptional difficulty of high sensitive, fast perturbation prone hemispheres, is with the nuts and bolts and girders of ensemble/ and better consensus from operational members. Right now it is too difficult - for me anyway .. - to homogenize an appeal. Looks like buckshot model gunning

The one after that ...I am really more interested.  That compression period is waning at that time, and as is typical post-ward ( in guidance here too), there is a window where the SPV elongates - creating a western limb that bides time.  This is when/where the -NAO mentioned above may play a more important/transitive role in the Lakes, OV/MA/NE regions.  It will be setting, by-and-by, with the SPV vestige sandwiched erstwhile inbetween the waning fast intermediate Pacific jet ... weakening yet still careening strongly through the middle latitudes of the CONUS underneath.

That's a powder keg for subsume phasing mechanics.  What we need to really cash in and drive a super synoptic scaled feed-back scenario, is really just a well times Pac S/W to squirt through the MV... It 'dents' the heights along its translation, and that is like taking the stopper out of a drain... The exertion of the NAO black exerts S, which exerts the SPV fragment S, and then phase is on, provided the flow isn't too crazy fast - which... because it is waning, the latter is satisfied.  Bingo bombo - I don't know in this case.  But, there are hints in the operational models - but even those that do, shirk that hemispheric potential ( imho - ) ...for all this. It may just need time to cook in the guidance/ensemble means, but ..should something of a larger/ mechanical elephant materialize in time, not a surprise for me.  Time will tell...  The GGEM 240 and the V16 (as supplied at PIVOTAL) elucidate this hint.. But, I see the general large scale framework of potential in everything really ... still quite obscure and not dependable.

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's where i would want any model to bring it truthfully, I bet Phinn would agree.........lol

The new Phin hopes it goes wherever is best for extreme coastal sections of SNE and locally-moored barges and sea-going vessels. I'm pulling for them! 

[dryslot]

A couple more days will be needed for this one.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

The new Phin hopes it goes wherever is best for extreme coastal sections of SNE and locally-moored barges and sea-going vessels. I'm pulling for them! 

Any low that comes up thru the GOM and up the bay of fundy will be an enjoyment for just about everyone.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

Any low that comes up thru the GOM and up the bay of fundy will be an enjoyment for just about everyone.

emphasis on "just about".    

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The new Phin hopes it goes wherever is best for extreme coastal sections of SNE and locally-moored barges and sea-going vessels. I'm pulling for them! 

Noreastermass crossing your name off and being like:

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Low tracking up over SE MA would change over many verbatim.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As Walt and others have pointed out ...this is a highly sensitive to small perturbations in streams causing forecaster/determinism headaches - so out of the gates this needs to be built into people's awareness: we enter a lower confidence modeling period in general, spanning the 4th through the lead up to whatever happens nearing the Ides of the month.   There is also a tandem emergence of a robust -NAO (western limb variety ) ballooning near the D. Straight and this is adding a tricky wild card.  

Fwiw and having said that, I am relatively more impressed with the 11-15th time frame, actually, than either Friday's ... or the 8th.    

By Friday, the whole of the continent and in fact the quatra hemispheric scope has/is entered(ng) into an N/ stream dominant circulation type.   Because of the nature of what that entails.. then considering existential model usage and familiarization with their biases therein:

-- the GFS probably runs away with suppression/shearing tendencies and will thus have difficulty even seeing narrow "needle thread" events.  This will at times be so extreme that even desperately flat waves, all but entirely damped out and holding onto mere threads of identity get taxed yet further by that model's Marxist physics ( lol ).

-- the Euro -ilk will ( excuse the anthropomorphism ...) "attempt" too hard to compensate N/ stream related longitudinal stressing  - some of which is of course going to be real. It perhaps 'corrects' for it when the anomaly gets excessive - just a hunch - and I think 120 kts canvased circulation eddy wind is getting there.  It's like it creates a window via correction processes, then capitalizes it's own creation using the extraordinary baroclinic gradient that the fast flow inherently caps shut ... Whatever it is doing or however it gets there... it is probably owing to engineering that historic 960 mb circular arctic sander bomb low it attempt to grind Worcester off the face of the Earth just a couple a 12z's ago.  

Friday .. is the leading edge of a -EPO or quasi(pulsed) -EPO surge of cold loading ... resulting from constructive interference with ridging between the arctic and polar streams ...however briefly, over the NE Pacific. This change is heralded by that Friday torpedo in the westerlies.  The entire geopotential medium is the process of becoming gradient saturated, and together with the impulse's own 140 kt jet max, rockets in the change. It is an interesting circumstance that emerges out of that quickening flow. Its drilling the baroclinic nexus so fast, it is outpacing the advection terms ( WAA ), and that forces the triple point to zip shut down the cold frontal length as the cold front cut under the warm sector prior to lead air mass mixing out... That will also mean less time or success for warm intrusion N of ~ mid Jersey/NYC ... I've seen that type of frontal tapestry in fast flow regime-like circumstances, ...many times, and this appears existentially textbook.  So what that means, is probably not a huge warm up before the R-wave rollout re-introduces the -EPO loading cold to the 40th parallel across the continent... But it could also introduce a 'smells like rain' period of wet aggregates prior to cold sweep clearing the coast ... which set stage for next Monday? 

The 8th latter event suffers the same speed headaches.  There is enough presentation as others have noted, across the bevy of less dependable guidance types ... but also hinted in the EPS and GEFs ... These open progressive waves can bomb ... they have to be precisely how the 18/00z ICONic solutions carried it - pristine handling... Okay... It's too early to thread that that, unfortunately .. the only way to   scaffold confidence and compensate for the exceptional difficulty of high sensitive, fast perturbation prone hemispheres, is with the nuts and bolts and girders of ensemble/ and better consensus from operational members.

The one after that ...I am really more interested.  That compression period is waning at that time, and as it typical, there is a window where the SPV elongates - creating a western limb that bides time.  This is when/where the -NAO mentioned above may play a more important/transitive role in the Lakes, OV/MA/NE regions.  It will be setting, by-and-by, with the SPV vestige sandwiched erstwhile inbetween the waning fast intermediate Pacific jet ... weakening yet still careening strongly through the middle latitudes of the CONUS underneath.

That's a powder keg for subsume phasing mechanics.  What we need to really cash in and drive a super synoptic scaled feed-back scenario, is really just a well times Pac S/W to squirt through the MV... There are hints in the operational models - but even those that do, shirk that hemispheric potential ( imho - ) ...this could need time to cook in the guidance/ensemble means, but ..should something larger/ mechanical elephant materialize in time, not a surprise for me.  Time will tell...  The GGEM 240 and the V16 (as supplied at PIVOTAL) elucidate this hint.. But, I see the general large scale framework of potential in everything really ... still quite obscure and not dependable.

Great post! And just a few words short of 10,000!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Low tracking up over SE MA would change over many verbatim.

Tight circulation. We like tight. 

[PhineasC]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

emphasis on "just about".    

I think for all of us to get nailed in one storm we would need a more OTS track that then hooks back into the GOM? Seems like a taller order. Like the semi-mythical storm that nails Norfolk, Richmond, Baltimore, and Philly in one shot

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

I think for all of us to get nailed in one storm we would need a more OTS track that then hooks back into the GOM? Seems like a taller order. Like the semi-mythical storm that nails Norfolk, Richmond, Baltimore, and Philly in one shot

Yes...the storms that go almost due north along 71W or so can hammer most of NE...or like a track NNE over the benchmark and into Bay of Fundy like dryslot said.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Tight circulation. We like tight. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think for all of us to get nailed in one storm we would need a more OTS track that then hooks back into the GOM? Seems like a taller order. Like the semi-mythical storm that nails Norfolk, Richmond, Baltimore, and Philly in one shot

Probably never.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Probably never.

Dec 2003 pulled it off.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes...the storms that go almost due north along 71W or so can hammer most of NE...or like a track NNE over the benchmark and into Bay of Fundy like dryslot said.

Anything near 41/71 are fine here but would have issues further south, But you latter post, Those can be SECS or HECS's.

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dec 2003 pulled it off.

I have a hard time remembering what i had for dinner last night.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I think for all of us to get nailed in one storm we would need a more OTS track that then hooks back into the GOM? Seems like a taller order. Like the semi-mythical storm that nails Norfolk, Richmond, Baltimore, and Philly in one shot

Jan 11 12 2011

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I have a hard time remembering what i had for dinner last night.

The way these guys remember minor snowstorms is sort of scary sometimes. 

Probably the same kinda mental process by how serial killers remember small details about their victims 30-40 years later during prison interviews? LOL

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Jan 11 12 2011

I don't even see that date in the BOX archives.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, PhineasC said:

The way these guys remember minor snowstorms is sort of scary sometimes. 

Probably the same kinda mental process by how serial killers remember small details about their victims 30-40 years later during prison interviews? LOL

We snowgeeks. In our blood.

[The 4 Seasons]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

THAT KICKS LIKE A MULE WITH HIS BALLS WRAPPED IN DUCT TAPE

[mahk_webstah]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I mean you have a ridge off the west coast of the US and a fairly sharp PV lobe with the srn s/w moving along. It's not linear...IOW, a small change would likely create a huge change in the solutions models show. 

"It could happen" 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't even see that date in the BOX archives.

Megastorm I think HFD 24 I had 22 BOS 14 or 15 even PF got smoked

[PhineasC]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

We snowgeeks. In our blood.

The memory for events is impressive. And not just raw totals, but specific details about jackpots, duration, forecasts prior to the storm itself. 

I just can't keep that kind of detail in my head when it comes to snow. 

[SouthCoastMA]

End of NAM setting up for something huggish

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Megastorm I think HFD 24 I had 22 BOS 14 or 15 even PF got smoked