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February the climo snow month


Ginx snewx
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8 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

Looks progressive

 

....

This is what I was looking for, yesterday ...wrt to those bigger bomb/unlikely hallucination runs ... They were lacking that upper air divergence mechanics ...

That there is an intense mid-stream relay to eventual a right entrance accelerating wind field ... above the 500 mb forcing/UVM.

But this is also the sort of detail that really doesn't get confident in guidance until that 4 day window... Need maybe Thursday, and/or better ensemble support - some cross guidance nods would be nice too...

 

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It might be worth it to start a thread for this ... I mentioned last night being willing too - but ...heh...

Unlike this gig last night, this one on the 8th is less inspiring of confidence to put it nicely. 

Said thread should have increased font size, bold, and italic slants with an underscore, that reads something like,  highly sensitive and only threaded out because it's the only other thing beyond Friday's triple point fropa to really be specific about 

Do we think the we can handle it  lol

 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is what I was looking for, yesterday ...wrt to those bigger bomb/unlikely hallucination runs ... They were lacking that upper air divergence mechanics ...

That there is an intense mid-stream relay to eventual a right entrance accelerating wind field ... above the 500 mb forcing/UVM.

But this is also the sort of detail that really doesn't get confident in guidance until that 4 day window... Need maybe Thursday, and/or better ensemble support - some cross guidance nods would be nice too...

 

Yes, it will be difficult to move this pig out of the way enough for the bend up the coast if the Euro is right. 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-2699200.thumb.png.8418245975afd38c259334bc41a1b03a.png

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If that thing was sharper, probably a 965 low hugging the beaches. 

Sort of what it was doing on that run yesterday ... But I looked at the upper air at the time, and it was all slip stream driven by 500 mb...It had like almost no divergence above that level -

tossed the notion when I saw that.. 

Now in this run, it has some 300 mb classical entrance mechanics.. I think an NJ model low has a reasonable shot - by that I mean for D5 - at taking place.  Open wave rapid mover that develops earnestly as it squirts underneath us like cheap porn -

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I've seen worse looks at day 5 on an ensemble mean....I kind of agree with Tip that this has a fast mover look to it....the NAO block sort of compresses the flow's ability to have a lot of downstream ridging...so you pop this coastal off the Delmarva or ACY and it screams NE.

I suppose if the trough dug enough, it could try and stemwind briefly, but it eventually would get shot ENE somewhere up the line with that downstream blocking look.

 

image.png.fa06fc9e0cb3cb81015edcea6d9b3f4a.png

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