Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 29 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Breaking news, 6 more weeks of Winter per Phil. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Is that Ray on the left holding the sign??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Honestly, we pulled so many storms out of our arses. Maybe me more than you I suppose. Look at Halloween. Over 4.5" from a storm where I had no reason to get any. Time to pay. It sucks, but that is climo too. Maybe it's not so much the winter or any particular storm is a POS....more likely that my location is the real problem. I heard Cape Ann averaged around 50" per season. Haven't sniffed that in 3.5 seasons here. BTW - You got 4.5" more than me in that Halloween storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Maybe it's not so much the winter or any particular storm is a POS....more likely that my location is the real problem. I heard Cape Ann averaged around 50" per season. Haven't sniffed that in 3.5 seasons here. BTW - You got 4.5" more than me in that Halloween storm. Where did you hear that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: Where did you hear that? Read it somewhere. I mean, I figured they did slightly better than BOS. I think the 30-year average is in the mid-high 40s now. At the very least, it got the same as Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Read it somewhere. I mean, I figured they did slightly better than BOS. I think the 30-year average is in the mid-high 40s now. At the very least, it got the same as Logan. Perhaps check with the historical society in Rockport, they may have snowfall records for the town. If not the library may have them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Maybe it's not so much the winter or any particular storm is a POS....more likely that my location is the real problem. I heard Cape Ann averaged around 50" per season. Haven't sniffed that in 3.5 seasons here. BTW - You got 4.5" more than me in that Halloween storm. You stick out though in that locale. Probably much different on the west end there. in 2015 you guys got crushed, I do know that. You'll get yours eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: @CoastalWx I'd say a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, dryslot said: Ha ha, Not how is works but this one looks like it could hug or be close enough. Would be nice to have a Miller A not screw us up here. They are simpler to forecast too, kinda like swfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Would be nice to have a Miller A not screw us up here. They are simpler to forecast too, kinda like swfe Watching friday too, We are real close to snow for that ones as it looks to start as rain right now then flip, I don't know about Miller A's, They have found more ways to screw me over this way but some do hug the coast and then we get slammed, But i actually like the look of this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Watching friday too, We are real close to snow for that ones as it looks to start as rain right now then flip, I don't know, They have found more ways to screw me over this way but some do hug the coast and then we get slammed, But i actually like the look of this one. I figure Friday is a no big deal, but it might help solidify the pack a bit and then I am hopeful for Sunday Monday as well. Seems like a good signal, that we might be walking the line a bit it’s a risk I’d rather take than having something go out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: I figure Friday is a no big deal, but it might help solidify the pack a bit and then I am hopeful for Sunday Monday as well. Seems like a good signal, that we might be walking the line a bit it’s a risk I’d rather take than having something go out to sea Out to sea gives you 0 chance at anything........lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Its wide right on the 12z GFS but we know how that goes with that model and coastal's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its wide right on the 12z GFS but we know how that goes with that model and coastal's. I’m glad to see that given the euro is a hugger. They’ll probably move towards each other a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Posters doing a fine job capturing the essence of the end week and early next week pattern predicament - FAST! Not much to add there... There is a presentation in the GEFs ...and clearly the EPS too, albeit weak .. for Feb 8 - something is there. But I would pass on the oper. Euro hyper bombs ideas.. In fact, the 00z notion of weak to middling low bombing on exit and being a much bigger ordeal more so up in the NS/lowr Maritime of Canada isn't a bad fit. But like I've said in the past - these models don't arrive to 'physically impossible' solutions.. either. Those previous Euro runs were happening mid way through a compression flow - so there is going to be inherent sensitivity/model error there. Fact of the matter is...yeah, you can get a fast moving bomb out of an open wave. Friday in the foreground here is not a 'real' concern - it never was in my mind. It's a leading baroclinic entry into a new pattern and cutter phenomenon - typically associated to a newly arriving -EPO/quasi -EPO cold loading event. Yeah, sometimes if luck prevails ...we'll get a 3000 km occluded boundary to a triple point near the NY Bite ...and squeeze a fast moving forgettable snow-ice-cool rain before the modified arctic air mass floods in behind recements.. It's been that way in all models and ensembles and is climatologically sound, too - so there's not really much room there ... I am something just shy of intrigued by the Feb 11-15 period of time however. That one - should the 8th fast mover sort of thing fail - might be the next period of time for something of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its wide right on the 12z GFS but we know how that goes with that model and coastal's. Yep, zero trust in the GFS until 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Posters doing a fine job capturing the essence of the end week and early next week pattern predicament - FAST! Not much to add there... There is a presentation in the GEFs ...and clearly the EPS too, albeit weak .. for Feb 8 - something is there. But I would pass on the oper. Euro hyper bombs ideas.. In fact, the 00z notion of weak to middling low bombing on exit and being a much bigger ordeal more so up in the NS/lowr Maritime of Canada isn't a bad fit. But like I've said in the past - these models don't arrive to 'physically impossible' solutions.. Friday in the foreground here is not a 'real' concern - it never was in my mind. It's a leading baroclinic entry into a new pattern and cutter phenomenon - typically associated to a newly arriving -EPO/quasi -EPO cold loading event. Yeah, sometimes if luck prevails ...we'll get a 3000 km occluded boundary to a triple point near the NY Bite ...and squeeze a fast moving forgettable snow-ice-cool rain before the modified arctic air mass floods in behind recements.. It's been that way in all models and ensembles and is climatologically sound, too - so there's not really much room there ... I am something just shy of intrigued by the Feb 11-15 period of time however. That one - should the 8th fast mover sort of thing fail - might be the next period of time for something of interest. And if it misses, time for March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Yep, zero trust in the GFS until 24 hours out. It sucked 0hrs out yesterday. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 CMC is also a whiff for the next week storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I only have last night's ukie, and there is some sort of signal...albeit a weird low level presentation...for next week. Anyone have access to this morning's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 I really like the 8th to 11th period as that block retrogrades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I only have last night's ukie, and there is some sort of signal...albeit a weird low level presentation...for next week. Anyone have access to this morning's run? 12z UK is a big hit through 144. Use Pivotal for UK maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 12z UKMET looks like a scraper. Edit: maybe a little better than that. Much closer than CMC and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks like the 12z v16 never ran? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 43 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: And if it misses, time for March March 1956 snowed north of 80% of that year's annum climo in the upper M/A and I believe that involved NE too - It is April that is the cruelest month ... I mean, if one's personal druthers meant more than a turd's worth of any consideration ... I start waning on winter enthusiasm really fast toward the end of February's myself. By then, two weeks have gone by after the end date of the perennial solar nadir - that being Feb 10 at our latitude. You can feel the sun's winning on the face and forearms, or how Kevin so oft waxes poetry about those warming sensations that kiss his napes... Heh, the futility of holding onto winter in those days is like when you're watching an awesome movie ignoring taking a piss - only gets worse and worse.. Finally, you have to go do it - in this case..admit it. For some, it takes until June 1 but - It is the fact that out of nowhere it's 6:07 pm and there still some daylight left .... and the next week we bump clocks... We are falling uphill out of winter, and it's sad coming in here and reading through eye-rolling denial - lol... Yeah, I guess some years we hit a pine bow on the way up and breaks our "fall" into depression, if for an instant of hesitation around some late anomalies - or, we outright hit a trampoline like in '56. But most years ... it tends to be over - I just love summer, and heat tracking patterns .. and crispy TCUs ... My nostalgia is just as strong for summer fair - and I enjoy long days, smells of lilacs, fresh cut lawns.. Perfume from some milf in line next to me at an ice cream shop. I miss the aroma of barbecues, or that pungent sweetness of a distant thunderstorm's body odor. I don't really experience the NEGATIVE variant of the S.A.D. condition, that mirror form; and it's recognize by the ... you know, national psycho-babble institute of brain-boxes ... It's rarer though, but real, and afflicts ~15% of the population in the same was normal S.A.D. does ( which I think the crucible of time has distilled the user ship of this social media ) ... Where the 'darkness' and cold temperatures grade on people's joy and functional circuitry in 'normal' S.A.D., these opposing ilk get that in summer. The thought of summer actually causes these individuals anguish if not pain. Interesting... but, anyway, don't discount March - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 This ain’t a miss OTS. Scooter thinking hugger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 12z UKMET looks like a scraper. Edit: maybe a little better than that. Much closer than CMC and GFS. Ukie gives the coast of New England several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Ukie gives the coast of New England several inches Yup, pretty good signal. Too bad the Para isn't running today for additional sigs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Ukie That’s a lot of rain for the same places that were screwed in yesterday’s storm. Meanwhile those who were buried get a very nice refresher on that run. The rich keep getting richer. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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