weathafella Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: My son in Omaha is expected to get 14 to 18, he has 8 so far. Yeah NE/IA are getting it good. LOT sees 6-8 with some higher spots in lake enhanced areas here-snow has begun. But honestly the burst last Tuesday evening that caught m while driving to the market was pretty good. Winter is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You failed to see my sarcasm. I know you like the big ones. You area is one of the best for peak climo big dogs too...I think you have more 18+ events in the last 10 years then I will have in my entire lifetime if I stay here and live to be 70. 18z tossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 45 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GFS! Sign me up for that. Blizzard. GFS Para says what blizzard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 DC gets 2 ft on the para... someone's gonna get walloped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z tossed. It’s on the table though. Anything from an interior crusher to a se scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 My lean for now at d7 favors the interior though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Given some major differences lately between the GFS and the Para, it's not surprising that they have delayed its implementation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 26 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: GFS Para says what blizzard? 21 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: DC gets 2 ft on the para... someone's gonna get walloped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: We were talking our hood, not DC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 @ORH_wxman weeklies? When you get a chance, thanks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 that euro run ..just got to see it ( 12z ) - f'n shit day at stress filled heads down work. feb 1-3rd i hate life but that looked to me like 27 consecutive hours of moderate snow .. probably 1.25" every 1hr or two the whole way ... Closing mid level heights coring another 12 dm deeper crawling E along the S shore, with a collocated 990 mb low going deeper only enhancing saturated easerly flow anomaly right in... and ample cold -2 C isothermal under the mid levels that frankly would have to have a couple meso bands in there that exceed that general notion above even ? Whatever guidance says about snow totals in that look ... double it! or, the model is wrong and that doesn't verify with that evolution - take one's pick. Am aware that other guidance and/or ensemble members may or may not agree ...blah blah... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @ORH_wxman weeklies? When you get a chance, thanks. They are ok. Nothing amazing. We keep the -NAO until it breaks down during the 3rd week of February. Aleutian ridge becomes more poleward too later in the month. Might mean more gradient but who knows. Past week 3 has the usual caveats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 52 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @ORH_wxman weeklies? When you get a chance, thanks. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202101250000&projection=opencharts_global&valid_time=202102010000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18z GEFS are sweet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 18z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: that euro run ..just got to see it ( 12z ) - f'n shit day at stress filled heads down work. feb 1-3rd i hate life but that looked to me like 27 consecutive hours of moderate snow .. probably 1.25" every 1hr or two the whole way ... Closing mid level heights coring another 12 dm deeper crawling E along the S shore, with a collocated 990 mb low going deeper only enhancing saturated easerly flow anomaly right in... and ample cold -2 C isothermal under the mid levels that frankly would have to have a couple meso bands in there that exceed that general notion above even ? Whatever guidance says about snow totals in that look ... double it! or, the model is wrong and that doesn't verify with that evolution - take one's pick. Am aware that other guidance and/or ensemble members may or may not agree ...blah blah... Sounds like you are describing 5-6” qpf all snow. Can’t freaking wait! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 25 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: 18z EPS? They only run 18z EPS to 144h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: They only run 18z EPS to 144h. we'd probably want the primary south of Chicago yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sounds like you are describing 5-6” qpf all snow. Can’t freaking wait! Oh I would never call something like that in this regime at that range heh. just what that run looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 10 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: we'd probably want the primary south of Chicago yes? Nah that’s perfect. that ain’t goin nowhere but due East to a MB destiny -impressive multi scale supportive synoptic parametric layout there for D 6 / 51 members too. Woosh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 That sucker is gonna wave break and roll up underneath New England as a snowmachine with that look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 If this lot survives the overnight I’ll start a thread in the morning if people want - or somebody else can I think it be justified This morning it seem like it was lacking some PNA support mostly was based on the decaying NAO dispersion stuff but now it seems like it’s got the ladder and the former working together plus seen that euro ensemble family and the euro operational and I don’t know I just think this is getting to be over 50% for a significant player 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 It’s a rather unique scenario… Looking at the GEF mean and spread… Remarkably low spread really considering the time range ... but it starts snowing around 140 hours and it’s maximizing at 168 hours and then dying a slow death for the next 12 to 18 hours after that it really is a Tele connector ‘Lagrange point’ low It’s moving at the planetary wave scale motion that’s why it’s moving so slow trapped in the node between decaying NAO and the emerging PNAP ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 Doesn’t have to be excessively deep… In fact you almost don’t want it to be that way given that super structure(s) some of the biggest snow producers I’ve ever seen we’re off of 990-996 mbers ... saturated cold easterly 850-700 mbar jet over Northeast underneath 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If this lot survives the overnight I’ll start a thread in the morning if people want - or somebody else can I think it be justified This morning it seem like it was lacking some PNA support mostly was based on the decaying NAO dispersion stuff but now it seems like it’s got the ladder and the former working together plus seen that euro ensemble family and the euro operational and I don’t know I just think this is getting to be over 50% for a significant player Go ahead and start a thread tomorrow if we’re still looking good. You mentioned this system a few days ago in a lengthy post...so take it home. I doubt the threat is going anywhere as I agree with the reasons you have brought forth. It’s the strongest signal we’ve seen since the 12/17 storm which we tracked from 8-9 days out...this one has that type of look that produces the staying power on guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If this lot survives the overnight I’ll start a thread in the morning if people want - or somebody else can I think it be justified This morning it seem like it was lacking some PNA support mostly was based on the decaying NAO dispersion stuff but now it seems like it’s got the ladder and the former working together plus seen that euro ensemble family and the euro operational and I don’t know I just think this is getting to be over 50% for a significant player Go for it ...you do a good job laying it all out there...and I do mean ALL of if...haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s a rather unique scenario… Looking at the GEF mean and spread… Remarkably low spread really considering the time range ... but it starts snowing around 140 hours and it’s maximizing at 168 hours and then dying a slow death for the next 12 to 18 hours after that it really is a Tele connector ‘Lagrange point’ low It’s moving at the planetary wave scale motion that’s why it’s moving so slow trapped in the node between decaying NAO and the emerging PNAP ridge You can say that again...even though the para is south it snows over Maryland for close to 60 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 TGW and we love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: They only run 18z EPS to 144h. Weenies shouldn't worry about anything happening 100+ hrs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2021 Share Posted January 26, 2021 My biggest concern here at this point in time would be precip type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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