CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think either way we are fooked....my area, yours, and nearby. NS pass suppresses the system and is still torchy. Strung out W->E wave too warm unless in Central and N PA. Even meeting in the middle is a fail situation it seems. Need major changes and it is getting late in the game for that. This is likely cooked for the coastal plain. I think its just the Euro and its baby brother that still have any decent snow, and that's mainly for the northern crew up near the PA line. The ICON and CMC are both pretty torcherific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Yeah, even my last hope the NAM took a step towards the globals for temps at 850. However it picked up on some weak CAD that has me in the blue in Augusta County along with some of the more northerly western VA crew. NAM at range with rain 10 miles south of mby- what could go wrong? Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think either way we are fooked....my area, yours, and nearby. NS pass suppresses the system and is still torchy. Strung out W->E wave too warm unless in Central and N PA. Even meeting in the middle is a fail situation it seems. Need major changes and it is getting late in the game for that. West to east waves really only work when there is good cold in front of them. Two things working in conjunction made this harder then it looked from range. One is that even though the airmass coming in ahead of this is polar in origin its simply not that cold. It gets easily bullied out of the way by that very weak washing out northern stream wave. The second is that NS wave. Even though its weak...the flow around it still wrecks the thermal profile ahead of the southern wave. So it took both...the cold is pathetic for a polar airmass on Jan 25...but it still would have been good enough had that NS wave not come across ahead of the southern wave. On the other hand....had there been a truly cold by normal Jan 25 polar airmass standards...the thermals probably could have survived that weak NS wave. But both those factors together...womp womp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Yeah, even my last hope the NAM took a step towards the globals for temps at 850. However it picked up on some weak CAD that has me in the blue in Augusta County along with some of the more northerly western VA crew. NAM at range with rain 10 miles south of mby- what could go wrong? Lock it in. That snow is caused by the dynamics of the precip. If you look at the 850’s there they are above freezing and then drop below once the precip gets there. I would imagine that same drop would take place further north as the precip advances. Of course it’s the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 not going to give up until the euro gives up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That snow is caused by the dynamics of the precip. If you look at the 850’s there they are above freezing and then drop below once the precip gets there. I would imagine that same drop would take place further north as the precip advances. Of course it’s the NAM it makes me feel awesome that we need to rely on dynamic cooling to get snow in the mountains from a blocking regime on January 26th! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Decent thump of rain on the 12z ICON followed by a dry slot, and some pity flakes at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Decent thump of rain on the 12z ICON followed by a dry slot, and some pity flakes at the end. The ICON has rain here with temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The ICON has rain here with temps below freezing. Freezing rain! Yeah I forgot it only shows green or blue. I never look too deeply at that model. And if it isn't frozen, its still rain and doesn't interest me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Freezing rain! Yeah I forgot it only shows green or blue. I never look too deeply at that model. And if it isn't frozen, its still rain and doesn't interest me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS at first glance looks like a slight shift south with features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS at first glance looks like a slight shift south with features You should probably take a 2nd glance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS is looking better and plenty of time to stil have a better look before game time lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: You should probably take a 2nd glance. maybe you should 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: maybe you should I'm comparing the 500mb maps at hr 72 vs 6z and the ridging and energy are both ticked N sir....more notable at 78 onward. Early in the run your glance was right. Where it matters things look torched and N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS is a little colder initially with the lower heights but the track still isnt any better. If amything a tick nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm comparing the 500mb maps at hr 72 vs 6z and the ridging and energy are both ticked N sir. You both are correct...the track isnt better but the heights out in front are lower so its a little colder and therefore more winter precip at least initially but we arent talking snow for the cities so whatebs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Thermals are better. I think the farther NW surface low actually helps that by providing a little more room for the high pressure and confluence to push in and keep us colder with the WAA precip. But then GFS keeps that primary low going much longer than previously, which is not helpful. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The low ends up tracking over Pittsburgh so obviously thats not good for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: The low ends up tracking over Pittsburgh so obviously thats not good for snow That would be a death kiss south of I-70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: That would be a death kiss south of I-70. Looks like an ice situation south of 1-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Looks like an ice situation south of 1-70 its borderline south of I70...temps flirt between 30-33 the whole time...so yeah probably ice verbaitm but widespread ice? eh...Looks like ice from I70 to PA line to me and then mostly snow north of Gettysburg to york Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: Looks like an ice situation south of 1-70 Leesburg stayed below 32 till the precip cut off....i just want something intereesting. But it was a much colder run than 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Leesburg stayed below 32 till the precip cut off....i just want something intereesting. But it was a much colder run than 6z Yeah I guess im looking at it from more of a metros/I95 point of view...you guys could get a good ice storm if it goes GFS way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it makes me feel awesome that we need to rely on dynamic cooling to get snow in the mountains from a blocking regime on January 26th! Agreed- being over 1500' during prime climo and hoping for rates to create dynamic cooling over my head to get snow is super frustrating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GEFS snow mean notably ticked upwards. Looks colder. That said... I’m still out. Looking closer, it’s skewed by six/seven members. Nice to see a boom scenario in there I guess but hard to call the GEFS too enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GGEM also colder to start. Snow north of DC Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: GGEM also colder to start. Snow north of DC Monday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: GGEM also colder to start. Snow north of DC Monday afternoon. Oh wow, and it stays snow...nice hit for MD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS looks a lot like the mid-December storm just from a snow to mix to drizzle scenario. Couple inches of snow maybe before the changeover. Would be almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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