frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: I was sleeping like a baby for last night's runs, but looking over the guidance this morning it' seems to be slowing slipping away for the southern and eastern parts of the region. Hopefully the Euro holds it's ground and maybe improves a bit, but the latest GFS run is hot garbage for my yard. Latest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 12z has to be noticeably better or at the very least stop the bleed in my opinion. I guess there's still time but this hasn't been a slow drip it has been a deluge. Good luck at 12z....I guess Let's be realistic. This is probably going to be the most important 12Z run of the season. Hopefully the servers are up to the task of handling all the incoming browser refresh commands. I have a lucky t-shirt that I used to wear all through college on clutch exams and it never let me down even once. I'm thinking about dusting it off and wearing it this weekend to skew the models in our direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Mount Holly Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, frd said: Latest It seems to be holding with the front end thump idea with the colder thermal profile. That's good to see. We know how these things have tended to trend towards game time though. The goddamn worm needs to turn. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: I do my best to exude optimism, but it has to be balanced with a strong grasp of reality. Optimism is PSU in response to frd yesterday that there may be another window mid Feb to early March due to more SPV pummeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: Latest Slightly better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, frd said: Mount Holly Meh The forecast for my yard implies maybe an inch of snow/sleet, but I would be willing to bet the warm layer aloft ends up being significant enough that its just sleet, and then goes over to rain. The wave is moving too fast and dampens enough that I doubt there will be any significant frozen on the backend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It seems to be holding with the front end thump idea with the colder thermal profile. That's good to see. We know how these thing have tended to trend towards game time though. The goddamn worm needs to turn. Yep, related to lower dews as mentioned by @MillvilleWx and the colder thermal profiles you posted about. We live in a tough area. I have all my hopes set aside for later next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Optimism is PSU in response to frd yesterday that there may be another window mid Feb to early March due to more SPV pummeling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 No representation of CAD here. Look at that boundary going West to East over long distances, a bit strange . We need a press of colder air. A while back I believe this was forecasted way colder. I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I know PSU and others have noted the different thermals on the GFS vs NAM. Here is another look at 850s as the precip has reached Kentucky. All 84 hr NAM caveats aside, just hoping the slightly colder 6Z Euro and the NAM seeing more cold might be the start of positive trend for us. GFS NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 31 minutes ago, IronTy said: Let's be realistic. This is probably going to be the most important 12Z run of the season. Hopefully the servers are up to the task of handling all the incoming browser refresh commands. I have a lucky t-shirt that I used to wear all through college on clutch exams and it never let me down even once. I'm thinking about dusting it off and wearing it this weekend to skew the models in our direction. Every run seems to be the most important run of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: he wave is moving too fast and dampens enough that I doubt there will be any significant frozen on the backend. Exactly .. some brief wording from the latest Mount Holly AFD. This isn`t a classic coastal low as it will be quickly progressing further off shore once it is east of us, so this doesn`t appear to be a system that will produce blockbuster amounts of snow. That being said, and with the consideration of how much uncertainty there remains with precip type, it will likely be Saturday afternoon before we will have enough confidence for a snow/ice/rain amount forecast that covers the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 57 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I know PSU and others have noted the different thermals on the GFS vs NAM. Here is another look at 850s as the precip has reached Kentucky. All 84 hr NAM caveats aside, just hoping the slightly colder 6Z Euro and the NAM seeing more cold might be the start of positive trend for us. GFS NAM That’s more than a slight difference. That’s nearly 7 degrees C at my location. Amazing actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all. The globals have pretty much formed a consensus or close thereto and it’s a Mason Dixon and north snow event. Would be shocked to see it shift this close to the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: The globals have pretty much formed a consensus or close thereto and it’s a Mason Dixon and north snow event. Would be shocked to see it shift this close to the event. While I don't necessarily think it's likely, if you don't think a R/S line can move 50-75 miles 3+ days before an event, you've been living in a bubble. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, Paleocene said: NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all. 6z NAM was probably the coldest solution for this one. Expecting the future NAM to adjust. Could be and hope to be wrong but this is usually the way it goes with no CAD signature and more of a W->E moving overunning situ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: While I don't necessarily think it's likely, if you don't think a R/S line can move 50-75 miles 3+ days before an event, you've been living in a bubble. Dc is more than 50 miles from a snow event on this one. That’s the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 24 minutes ago, Paleocene said: NAM Is running now, I am ready to cling to its definitely inaccurate surface precip projections in the 72-84 hour range to hallucinate snow IMBY!!! But seriously that cold difference shown above for 6z would be huge to say the least for the front end thump. We need something to hold on to hope with y'all. More ridging out ahead of the system at 57 hrs. That's all I need to see and won't analyze the later NAM panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The NAM is much slower with getting the wave organized and moving east...and that allows cold to press in behind the northern stream low that comes across Sunday. That suppresses the wave as it finally gets its act together to come across. The GFS is the most extreme in the other direction where it organizes the wave so fast that by the time the NS wave clears the ridging in front is already blasting up the ohio valley and the cold comes down behind that wave not in front and on top of it. A pretty major difference when it shows up at only about 50 hours now on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: More ridging out ahead of the system at 57 hrs. That's all I need to see and won't analyze the later NAM panels. lol--its hardly significant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The NAM is much slower with getting the wave organized and moving east...and that allows cold to press in behind the northern stream low that comes across Sunday. That suppresses the wave as it finally gets its act together to come across. The GFS is the most extreme in the other direction where it organizes the wave so fast that by the time the NS wave clears the ridging in front is already blasting up the ohio valley and the cold comes down behind that wave not in front and on top of it. A pretty major difference when it shows up at only about 50 hours now on the NAM. It's the NAM at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2m temps are scorched on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: It's the NAM at range. The first 48 hours are at range? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: The first 48 hours are at range? I want to see if the CRAS supports the changes on the 12z NAM before jumping all-in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It's the NAM at range. I know but I was pointing out why it was different. It trended towards the globals a little but its still by far the furthest south of all guidance. What's hilarious is if the NAM is right it might be a total non event anywhere in the east because its so suppressed with the wave I doubt heavy precip makes it much further north then the PA line but the cold is further north...it might be another perfect track rainstorm on January 26 in a blocking regime with a polar airmass. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The NAM is much slower with getting the wave organized and moving east...and that allows cold to press in behind the northern stream low that comes across Sunday. That suppresses the wave as it finally gets its act together to come across. The GFS is the most extreme in the other direction where it organizes the wave so fast that by the time the NS wave clears the ridging in front is already blasting up the ohio valley and the cold comes down behind that wave not in front and on top of it. A pretty major difference when it shows up at only about 50 hours now on the NAM. Isn't that a warm front ie WAA pssing thru Sunday PM with the associated weak slp in the Lakes? 700mb-2m temps suggest so anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Isn't that a warm front ie WAA pssing thru Sunday PM with the associated weak slp in the Lakes? 700mb-2m temps suggest so anyway. yes but once the wave clears the cold presses behind it on the NAM some...not so much here but in the midwest which suppresses the next wave. On the GFS there is no separation so the ridging goes up before the cold can press at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know but I was pointing out why it was different. It trended towards the globals a little but its still by far the furthest south of all guidance. What's hilarious is if the NAM is right it might be a total non event anywhere in the east because its so suppressed with the wave I doubt heavy precip makes it much further north then the PA line but the cold is further north...it might be another perfect track rainstorm on January 26 in a blocking regime with a polar airmass. LOL I think either way we are fooked....my area, yours, and nearby. NS pass suppresses the system and is still torchy. Strung out W->E wave too warm unless in Central and N PA. Even meeting in the middle is a fail situation it seems. Need major changes and it is getting late in the game for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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