Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

[Zdudswx]

The 25ths threat goes north and rains and the 28ths threat is way south. UNREAL 

[Chris78]

Cmc has lower heights out ahead compared to its 12z . Let's see if it makes a difference. 

 

[caviman2201]

So... the north trend that has effed us all year will work in our favor to give us the goods on the 29th and not bury NC, right? That won't like be the one storm all year that doesn't trend north... right? 

Who am I kidding... we're going to end up with a DC-Balt snow hole of biblical proportions. I can't wait to see how hilarious the seasonal snowfall map looks late next week. This is legitimately cruel if it verifies.

 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Cmc has lower heights out ahead compared to its 12z . Let's see if it makes a difference. 

 

Chicago is still happy brother. Its over. 

[clskinsfan]

LOL. Cmc has snow in Northern MD with the 540 line in Ny state. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

@ravensrule?? 

It’s because he spends too much time with me. 

[clskinsfan]

At this point if I see a piece of graupel fall it is a win. What a frikin disaster.

[Ji]

ive been saying this for 4 years.

 

We we need a north trend....it goes south

when we need a south trend---it goes north

 

these are principals  that never fail

[psuhoffman]

@stormtracker One of the things screwing us over is how the TPV lobe up in Canada has shifted the last 48 hours.  Remember we were looking at how the GFS was phasing that out west and other guidance was shifting it east and sliding it across on top.  Well the GFS caved on that western phase idea...and for a moment all guidance looked good.  But what has happened the last 48 hours is that piece of the TPV that breaks off and slides across Canada has slowed down every run.  And now instead of it being in front of the wave suppressing the flow over top of it it slowed down so much that the wave got in front of it...which allows it to ride north more.  Without a true cold airmass in the way...all it takes is something small like that because we were living on the edge to begin with. 

[benjammin]

ive been saying this for 4 years.
 
We we need a north trend....it goes south
when we need a south trend---it goes north
 
these are principals  that never fail

They're school administrators? Good to know.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive been saying this for 4 years.

 

We we need a north trend....it goes south

when we need a south trend---it goes north

 

these are principals  that never fail

CMC went north for the next storm also.  Unless the GFS is correct with ejecting a weak POS wave out west...and I won't buy that until I see evidence on something other then the GFS at range... I wouldn't worry too much about that yet.  This first storm Monday is slipping away though unless we see a reversal soon.  

[Hurricanegiants]

I often wonder which pain is worse—continuing to be addicted to this grueling hobby of “now you see it—now you don’t” with mid-Atlantic weather model dissection by the hour or simply ripping the band-aid off and resorting to the old “trusty” iPhone weather app where the visuals go from snowflakes over 2 days—to rain—to partly cloudy. Hope the King turns the mojo around here  in an hour. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

I often wonder which pain is worse—continuing to be addicted to this grueling hobby of “now you see it—now you don’t” with mid-Atlantic weather model dissection by the hour or simply ripping the band-aid off and resorting to the old “trusty” iPhone weather app where the visuals go from snowflakes over 2 days—to rain—to partly cloudy. Hope the King turns the mojo around here  in an hour. 

DC only averages 14" a year.  It hurts more because they are closer to places that do typically get snow...but truth is the DC/Baltimore area is usually just south of where snow is common in winter...but our averages and perceptions are inflated by those few years where the boundary ends up south of normal and we get a lot of snow.  We are far enough north that we can win once in a while in a normal year...and get a big year every so often but truth is the majority of the time we watch places not that far away snow but are on the wrong side of the boundary.  

[Avdave]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

ive been saying this for 4 years.

 

We we need a north trend....it goes south

when we need a south trend---it goes north

 

these are principals  that never fail

you will love the snow here

[clskinsfan]

11 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

I often wonder which pain is worse—continuing to be addicted to this grueling hobby of “now you see it—now you don’t” with mid-Atlantic weather model dissection by the hour or simply ripping the band-aid off and resorting to the old “trusty” iPhone weather app where the visuals go from snowflakes over 2 days—to rain—to partly cloudy. Hope the King turns the mojo around here  in an hour. 

I think we know why Bob decided to roll out. I might not be far behind. I am too old for this S. 

[Amped]

You can see the trend of higher heights over E Canada which caused the shift north in track.  700mb temps also look pretty ugly at the height of the storm. Sleet wouldn't be suprising up to the NY PA border. -2c 700mb temps usually means there's a layer above 0c in there somewhere.

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

You can see the trend of higher heights over E Canada which caused the shift north in track.  700mb temps also look pretty ugly at the height of the storm. Sleet wouldn't be suprising up to the NY PA border. -2c 700mb temps usually means there's a layer above 0c in there somewhere.

 

 

 

But other then that how was the play Mrs Lincoln 

[ErinInTheSky]

1 hour ago, caviman2201 said:

So... the north trend that has effed us all year will work in our favor to give us the goods on the 29th and not bury NC, right? That won't like be the one storm all year that doesn't trend north... right? 

Who am I kidding... we're going to end up with a DC-Balt snow hole of biblical proportions. I can't wait to see how hilarious the seasonal snowfall map looks late next week. This is legitimately cruel if it verifies.

 

This map sums up my winter experiences here since moving from Louisiana in 2016. Frame it and use it to teach future Mid-ATL climatology classes.

[Tar Heel Snow]

1 hour ago, caviman2201 said:

So... the north trend that has effed us all year will work in our favor to give us the goods on the 29th and not bury NC, right? That won't like be the one storm all year that doesn't trend north... right? 

Who am I kidding... we're going to end up with a DC-Balt snow hole of biblical proportions. I can't wait to see how hilarious the seasonal snowfall map looks late next week. This is legitimately cruel if it verifies.

 

I’m literally moving to DC on Tuesday from Raleigh, this one’s on me! And I thought OUR snow hole was bad...

[NEblizzard88]

5 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

I’m literally moving to DC on Tuesday from Raleigh, this one’s on me! And I thought OUR snow hole was bad...

No this is a great thing because you will now bring this storm back north! THANK YOU! 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@stormtracker One of the things screwing us over is how the TPV lobe up in Canada has shifted the last 48 hours.  Remember we were looking at how the GFS was phasing that out west and other guidance was shifting it east and sliding it across on top.  Well the GFS caved on that western phase idea...and for a moment all guidance looked good.  But what has happened the last 48 hours is that piece of the TPV that breaks off and slides across Canada has slowed down every run.  And now instead of it being in front of the wave suppressing the flow over top of it it slowed down so much that the wave got in front of it...which allows it to ride north more.  Without a true cold airmass in the way...all it takes is something small like that because we were living on the edge to begin with. 

This was a long way to go to say that we suck and we are effed.   

[stormtracker]

Euro slightly colder than GFS...but still not ideal

[MillvilleWx]

One of the key differences with regards to ptype at the beginning of the event is the regional dewpoints which would allow for sufficient wet bulb with sub-0C within the boundary layer. 

Taking a look at the GFS and ECMWF differences, you can see a drier layer present aloft which would allow for enough of a wet bulb to begin as snow through areas north of Rt 50.

ECMWF

GFS

Notice the contrast in lower dews to the north on the Euro compared to the GFS. This little tidbit may be the difference between a longer frozen event compared to a hit and run. This is a classic north of I-70 remaining frozen longer with more impacts for the evening rush since majority of precip is after 21z. Something to monitor. As far as the UL pattern goes, there isn't much of a difference between the 12/18z runs to the 00z, so the main characteristics of ascent are unchanged with focus mainly on surface and lower boundary layer. 

[CAPE]

The thermal profile on the GFS gets worse every run. Verbatim 6z is close to pure rain for many now.

[Ralph Wiggum]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The thermal profile on the GFS gets worse every run. Verbatim 6z is close to pure rain for many now.

The mesos will handle the CAD better when they get in range (weenie handbook page 562 section 3 clause b)

[aldie 22]

12z has to be noticeably better or at the very least stop the bleed in my opinion. I guess there's still time but this hasn't been a slow drip it has been a deluge. Good luck at 12z....I guess

[MD Snow]

1. 0z EURO still starts everyone from Route 50 north with snow.. As @MillvilleWx pointed out last night, a front end thump or at least some snow is still very much on the table depending on dews etc. 

2. All the caveats but 6z Nam and RGEM are both significantly colder at the end of their runs than the GFS and other globals at the same time. They should definitely be given more weight as we move into later today and into tomorrow. Could they possibly be on to something? 

3. I don't think this is as out of reach as other's. Get the precip to come in hot and heavy and wetbulb takes over. This isn't a super amped system. I think 1-2" from a line between dc/balt and 2-4" balt north to the md/pa border is definitely still on the table before the switch. 

4. Also, I doubt this comes any further north as we get closer to game time given the block and the setup. If anything, it should adjust south slightly. 

5. This board was a total weenie dumpster fire last night imo...haha..

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The thermal profile on the GFS gets worse every run. Verbatim 6z is close to pure rain for many now.

DT going to have to update his SECS checklist. 

Basically no favorable tele , indices, or pattern will support "significant" snow any longer in our area.  We have gone beyond bad luck. This storm if rain will be the fourth time the rug has been pulled. 

And, if the colder scenario storm on the 28 or 29 th does not deliver that's it for me. The 6z run is a sad site.       

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The mesos will handle the CAD better when they get in range (weenie handbook page 562 section 3 clause b)

I do my best to exude optimism, but it has to be balanced with a strong grasp of reality. 

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

1. 0z EURO still starts everyone from Route 50 north with snow.. As @MillvilleWx pointed out last night, a front end thump or at least some snow is still very much on the table depending on dews etc. 

2. All the caveats but 6z Nam and RGEM are both significantly colder at the end of their runs than the GFS and other globals at the same time. They should definitely be given more weight as we move into later today and into tomorrow. Could they possibly be on to something? 

3. I don't think this is as out of reach as other's. Get the precip to come in hot and heavy and wetbulb takes over. This isn't a super amped system. I think 1-2" from a line between dc/balt and 2-4" balt north to the md/pa border is definitely still on the table before the switch. 

4. Also, I doubt this comes any further north as we get closer to game time given the block and the setup. If anything, it should adjust south slightly. 

5. This board was a total weenie dumpster fire last night imo...haha..

I was sleeping like a baby for last night's runs, but looking over the guidance this morning it' seems to be slowly slipping away for the southern and eastern parts of the region. Hopefully the Euro holds it's ground and maybe improves a bit, but the latest GFS run is hot garbage for my yard.