WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t our odds of temps crashing on the back and turning all to snow increase if the system is stronger? The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The backside precip that is shown on the GFS and GEFS only hits us because of the track of the low. If it’s farther north then it’s over PA. We don’t need a ton of movement to get back to an all or mostly snow event. And we have time still, but I’d like to see it happen over the next 36-48 hours. cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south Well on the bright side least people can hear your shitty ass guitar gig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: cant stop thinking about this feeling im getting that we waited a month to miss our first winter storm to the north and our 2nd one to the south Are any of your feelings about things ever good, though? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’ve never seen a backend event go well. We often get shafted. It’s often painful no matter how well it’s presented before hand. I’m used to getting hosed on the front end and shafted on the backend. Spit roasted in some ways. It’s just sloppy all around 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 32 minutes ago, H2O said: I’m used to getting hosed on the front end and shafted on the backend. Spit roasted in some ways. It’s just sloppy all around @ravensrule?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 NAM has the little Sunday preview. Probably nothing. But it has been showing up on the models the past 24 hours. Snow tv during the Championship games would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I guess I'm going to be "that guy" to post the 84 hr NAM but we need something positive here lol. Big difference with the ridging out ahead of the storm. Much lower heights out ahead on the NAM. That's the look we need to get a region wide front end Thump. Sorry in advance for posting the 84 hr NAM. Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 NAM picked up on the December storm trending west first (vs off the coast). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Man, I thought you were slacking for a while. Good to see the NAM extrapolation. It's comforting. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, I thought you were slacking for a while. Good to see the NAM extrapolation. It's comforting. We need more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The icon is not very iconic tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 RGEM is more juiced than the NAM. WTF that means I have no idea. Could completely collapse in the next 12 hours on that wretched model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 ICON is ice/mix for the favored spots transitioning to some light snow on the backside. DC is all rain with maybe a few snow showers at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Well. the ICON just invented ways to have multiple dryslots in a 24 hour period. Amazing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 31 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I guess I'm going to be "that guy" to post the 84 hr NAM but we need something positive here lol. Big difference with the ridging out ahead of the storm. Much lower heights out ahead on the NAM. That's the look we need to get a region wide front end Thump. Sorry in advance for posting the 84 hr NAM. Lol No I posted the 18z NAM in comparison to the GFS showing that same thing...and 0z NAM went even further in that direction 0z. We all know its the NAM at 84 hours. But the typical bias for the NAM at range is over amped not under. The NAM also might be better suited to handle the thermal profile which might impact the ridging in front...this is not a particularly amplified system that will automatically bully the flow. Once in a while the NAM sniffs something out. Lets just hope this is one of those "once in a while". We all know the risks of believing anything the NAM has to say at range though so its fine to point out the NAM would probably be a good outcome. It's ok to dream!!! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 If anybody can see a positive on the 0z GFS, I'd like to hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 GFS another shift north. I am starting to hate this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Its over. Even out here. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: If anybody can see a positive on the 0z GFS, I'd like to hear it. 38 and rain is better than 32 and rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 38 and rain is better than 32 and rain Fair 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 All Storms will be Next... until we hit Mid-March high sun angle. Move on to next winter season everyone Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Fair I guess verbatim it might end up similar to previous runs. some "ice" and then it wouldn't shock me if it pulls off snow at the end. least this storm is speeding up slightly every run. the pain will be over soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2021 Author Share Posted January 22, 2021 Debacle. Almost to the point where I'm ready to transfer all of my eggs into the Jan 28th basket. Gonna leave 1 or 2 in this basket just in case the NAM has something. lol, relying on the NAM. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 When Chicago is jumping up and down about their snowstorm. We are F'ed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Time to start rooting for it to just go away. That’s better than a soaking cold rain while they get hammered just to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, Negnao said: Time to start rooting for it to just go away. That’s better than a soaking cold rain while they get hammered just to our north. Trees could use the water so they’re starting to bloom when its 65 on Feb 20th. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 The CRAS may have just passed the GFS for the “go to” model of choice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If anybody can see a positive on the 0z GFS, I'd like to hear it. What's sad is its not like the block isn't doing its job...this storm isnt very amplified...it only rides north because its following the thermal boundary and that is so far north...but no precip even makes it to Boston and NYC is on the northern fringe. And yet DC is all rain...think about that. Even with a block strong enough to stop a system dead in its tracks and force is southeast such that from a primary that far NW anyone northeast of NYC gets no precip...and we still can't get frozen...on JANUARY 26!!!!!!!!!!!!! Frankly the whole lack of frozen to the north and northeast of the low is amazing given the blocking on top and the time of year. Amazing scarily pathetic! Rant over...our only hope is that the globals are pressing the boundary too far north with such a relatively weak wave and that blocking over the top. But the trend is all the wrong way for 48 hours now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Amazing scarily pathetic! Don't worry, soon it will be routine and not so disturbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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