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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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Updated WWA:

Quote

WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-CECIL-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-
1101 AM EST MON JAN 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 
  OF UP TO TWO INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE TENTH 
  OF AN INCH.

* WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND 
  NORTHERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA.

* WHEN...FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY.

 

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1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

February/March, I'll be in your neck of the woods for 2 months (near Capon Springs WV), so hopefully we have some events to sweat together/commiserate over.

woah--why. How do they do snow wise there? is it like Garrett?

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Just now, Ji said:

woah--why. How do they do snow wise there? is it like Garrett?

I actually edited...it's Capon Bridge..not springs.  need to get out of the city for a while and still WFH, but need to be in the general DMV....Where I'm going, I'd estimate they average 40" or so.  It's at 1600' about 25 miles WNW of Winchester.

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

I actually edited...it's Capon Bridge..not springs.  need to get out of the city for a while and still WFH, but need to be in the general DMV....Where I'm going, I'd estimate they average 40" or so.  It's at 1600' about 25 miles WNW of Winchester.

Yeah they have pretty much the same snow climate that we do.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ve never stopped going to bars LOL. 

I made a bar at my house.  Bought all liquors (and discovered that I like Scotch way more than I thought), mixers, even some new glasses and I've been having a ball.  Anyway, here's to hoping the NAM scores the coup.

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LWX seems kinda nervous

rea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will bring wintry precipitation to the region
this evening into Tuesday. Another system may impact our region
late Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure builds into
the early parts of this weekend before another system
potentially impacts our region on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Forecast confidence on p-type and specific snow/ice amounts
continues to be lacking due to spread among guidance on temps
aloft, isothermal layer seen on model soundings, and very cold
sounding seen this morning at IAD. Tried to maintain as much as
consistency with previous forecast as possible, however, some
adjustments were made to the 90th percentile or reasonable worst
case scenario for snow amounts now showing a max of 5 inches
across the north and 2-3 inches (reasonable worst case) for
areas around the Capital Beltway. This is to account for the
higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast. Did also some
adjustments to the precip onset graphic, a little quicker in
the southwest and a little slower in the northeast mainly after
7PM. QPF amounts in the 18Z-00Z today time frame were also
lowered somewhat in the southwest based on 06Z ECMWF ensembles
and slow progression on precip on regional radars.
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15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

LWX seems kinda nervous


 QPF amounts in the 18Z-00Z today time frame were also
lowered somewhat in the southwest based on 06Z ECMWF ensembles
and slow progression on precip on regional radars.

Kind of interesting to hear that they use global ensembles right up to onset... feel like I've been told many times here that global ensembles are not useful for that specific purpose because they can't pick up on meso features.

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18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

LWX seems kinda nervous


rea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1030 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will bring wintry precipitation to the region
this evening into Tuesday. Another system may impact our region
late Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure builds into
the early parts of this weekend before another system
potentially impacts our region on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Forecast confidence on p-type and specific snow/ice amounts
continues to be lacking due to spread among guidance on temps
aloft, isothermal layer seen on model soundings, and very cold
sounding seen this morning at IAD. Tried to maintain as much as
consistency with previous forecast as possible, however, some
adjustments were made to the 90th percentile or reasonable worst
case scenario for snow amounts now showing a max of 5 inches
across the north and 2-3 inches (reasonable worst case) for
areas around the Capital Beltway. This is to account for the
higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast. Did also some
adjustments to the precip onset graphic, a little quicker in
the southwest and a little slower in the northeast mainly after
7PM. QPF amounts in the 18Z-00Z today time frame were also
lowered somewhat in the southwest based on 06Z ECMWF ensembles
and slow progression on precip on regional radars.

CWG too

 

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50 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I made a bar at my house.  Bought all liquors (and discovered that I like Scotch way more than I thought), mixers, even some new glasses and I've been having a ball.  Anyway, here's to hoping the NAM scores the coup.

Ra*dal*

Do you still have your great pictures from Feb 2007 that you could share here or email to me ?

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