Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: Who was it that said it would be funny if this event produced more than Thursday? Seems like you've got a good chance of being right it was me i think lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Good to have you posting February/March, I'll be in your neck of the woods for 2 months (near Capon Bridge WV), so hopefully we have some events to sweat together/commiserate over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Updated WWA: Quote WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-CECIL- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- 1101 AM EST MON JAN 25 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO TWO INCHES AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. * WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, NORTH CENTRAL, NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. * WHEN...FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 34/20 after a low of 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 39/23, cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: February/March, I'll be in your neck of the woods for 2 months (near Capon Springs WV), so hopefully we have some events to sweat together/commiserate over. woah--why. How do they do snow wise there? is it like Garrett? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: February/March, I'll be in your neck of the woods for 2 months (near Capon Bridge WV), so hopefully we have some events to sweat together/commiserate over. That’s awesome. Maybe you, I, and @clskinsfan can hook up for a drink and greet. I’d like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Ji said: woah--why. How do they do snow wise there? is it like Garrett? I actually edited...it's Capon Bridge..not springs. need to get out of the city for a while and still WFH, but need to be in the general DMV....Where I'm going, I'd estimate they average 40" or so. It's at 1600' about 25 miles WNW of Winchester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s awesome. Maybe you, I, and @clskinsfan can hook up for a drink and greet. I’d like that. I am in for that. Should be getting my first Vaccine shot soon. Cant wait to get my life back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: I actually edited...it's Capon Bridge..not springs. need to get out of the city for a while and still WFH, but need to be in the general DMV....Where I'm going, I'd estimate they average 40" or so. It's at 1600' about 25 miles WNW of Winchester. Yeah they have pretty much the same snow climate that we do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: I am in for that. Should be getting my first Vaccine shot soon. Cant wait to get my life back I’ve never stopped going to bars LOL. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 34/15 low of 30 degrees last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ve never stopped going to bars LOL. I made a bar at my house. Bought all liquors (and discovered that I like Scotch way more than I thought), mixers, even some new glasses and I've been having a ball. Anyway, here's to hoping the NAM scores the coup. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 37/28, low of 33 last night. Just hoping to see some flakes down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 They didn't bother to treat the roads down by me. Not expecting much but if the NAM is even half right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 LWX seems kinda nervous rea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1030 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will bring wintry precipitation to the region this evening into Tuesday. Another system may impact our region late Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure builds into the early parts of this weekend before another system potentially impacts our region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast confidence on p-type and specific snow/ice amounts continues to be lacking due to spread among guidance on temps aloft, isothermal layer seen on model soundings, and very cold sounding seen this morning at IAD. Tried to maintain as much as consistency with previous forecast as possible, however, some adjustments were made to the 90th percentile or reasonable worst case scenario for snow amounts now showing a max of 5 inches across the north and 2-3 inches (reasonable worst case) for areas around the Capital Beltway. This is to account for the higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast. Did also some adjustments to the precip onset graphic, a little quicker in the southwest and a little slower in the northeast mainly after 7PM. QPF amounts in the 18Z-00Z today time frame were also lowered somewhat in the southwest based on 06Z ECMWF ensembles and slow progression on precip on regional radars. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Still a decent dewpoint depression north of I-66 and the radar to our west looks pretty decent. If we can manage a thump, thing might get snowy fast for some people. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Stares in Baltimore City at this... Quote Did also some adjustments to the precip onset graphic, a little quicker in the southwest and a little slower in the northeast Cue the "do something" gif from me for 8:00 when it is pouring snow in Columbia to Ellicott City but can't make it into Balt City.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: LWX seems kinda nervous QPF amounts in the 18Z-00Z today time frame were also lowered somewhat in the southwest based on 06Z ECMWF ensembles and slow progression on precip on regional radars. Kind of interesting to hear that they use global ensembles right up to onset... feel like I've been told many times here that global ensembles are not useful for that specific purpose because they can't pick up on meso features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: LWX seems kinda nervous rea Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1030 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal system will bring wintry precipitation to the region this evening into Tuesday. Another system may impact our region late Wednesday into early Thursday. High pressure builds into the early parts of this weekend before another system potentially impacts our region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecast confidence on p-type and specific snow/ice amounts continues to be lacking due to spread among guidance on temps aloft, isothermal layer seen on model soundings, and very cold sounding seen this morning at IAD. Tried to maintain as much as consistency with previous forecast as possible, however, some adjustments were made to the 90th percentile or reasonable worst case scenario for snow amounts now showing a max of 5 inches across the north and 2-3 inches (reasonable worst case) for areas around the Capital Beltway. This is to account for the higher than normal uncertainty in the forecast. Did also some adjustments to the precip onset graphic, a little quicker in the southwest and a little slower in the northeast mainly after 7PM. QPF amounts in the 18Z-00Z today time frame were also lowered somewhat in the southwest based on 06Z ECMWF ensembles and slow progression on precip on regional radars. CWG too 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I was scheduled to go get a 'roney test this evening at 5pm (at a Montgomery County run site). They sent an email blast out saying that my appointment was cancelled due to "severe weather" and I should come earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Radar is definitely juicy in KY. Plenty of moisture is going to come through later this evening. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Radar is definitely juicy in KY. Plenty of moisture is going to come through later this evening. Most guidance keeps the super juicy stuff to our south. Fortunately, we don’t need all of that to score. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Gassed up the observation machine and ready for duty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I made a bar at my house. Bought all liquors (and discovered that I like Scotch way more than I thought), mixers, even some new glasses and I've been having a ball. Anyway, here's to hoping the NAM scores the coup. Ra*dal* Do you still have your great pictures from Feb 2007 that you could share here or email to me ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 38/22, patiently awaiting my snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 SPC mesoanalysis has the 32° wet bulb line running from I-66 to Rt. 50 to the PA/DE border in Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC mesoanalysis has the 32° wet bulb line running from I-66 to Rt. 50 to the PA/DE border in Delmarva. Is this the right map? I never knew this existed on their SPC site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Is this the right map? I never knew this existed on their SPC site. Yes that's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: SPC mesoanalysis has the 32° wet bulb line running from I-66 to Rt. 50 to the PA/DE border in Delmarva. What does this mean? Does this mean that above the line is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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