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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, winterymix said:

Pattern recognition is what this storm is all about..   Snow to freezing rain to rain,   we've had this pattern a quadrillion times.

Need it to be juiced up on the front end, and this is a disorganized system in a weakening state as it moves east, so that is very much in question.

For eastern areas, If we don't get decent precip early, it will be a few sleet pellets to rain. This literally happens all the time in set ups like this.

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Need it to be juiced up on the front end, and this is a disorganized system in a weakening state as it moves east, so that is very much in question.

For eastern areas, If we don't get decent precip early, it will be a few sleet pellets to rain. This literally happens all the time in set ups like this.

That’s why I’m encouraged by the models that are bumping up precip as it gets closer 

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16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

HRRR looks good for mostly snow and then some ice, but the rates must be pathetic. Snows for 4-6 hours and most areas get an inch.

      exactly.    Here is the HRRR QPF during the time when it shows mostly snow for areas north of DC:

19280155_ScreenShot2021-01-25at8_47_31AM.thumb.png.c8954f7d07bd465e3e962902eafef5c7.png

     And the vertical profiles show that temps are just barely cold enough aloft to stay as snow until you get further north in MD.    Ugly tradeoff here:   You need to go southwest to get higher QPF, but the better profiles will be further north.    There *may* be a sweet spot somewhere in the middle (Howard-Montgomery deathband, anyone?) where they get into the slightly higher QPF and have a profile that just barely supports snow

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think it’s foolish to just dismiss the NAM out of hand.

Of course we have a lot of people who just “know”

i dont think high risk is discounting a 1-3 inch event. But to get 4-5 inches...you are going to need some white out conditions lol

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. 

      To be clear, I'm saying to discount the heaver NAM12 QPF, and always discount the 10:1 maps in an event with marginal temperature profiles.    But I would absolutely not discount the NAM nest, for which the reasonable snow products have 1-2" for areas north of DC (and maybe some snow inside the DC Beltway too for a little while).    Look at the other CAMs rolling in this morning:   the HRRR and all 3 hi-res windows have snow for a few hours at the start.     The NAM idea is not an outlier.  

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