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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thought this was a weather observation thread?

 

11 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

All bases covered 

 

10 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

You are quite correct

Models exist to  sustain themselves. It’s all we’ve had for 30 years and they are not looking into any different methods. The very nature of ensembles is to further the cover all bases method such that come funding time one of those 30 panels can be presented as confirmation to the unknowing Dept  of Commerce  people.

Im a weather nut  also and let’s face it the cartoons are fun to look at. They are just not predictive of weather but rather illustrative of it 

Not a troll either but rather experientially seasoned. Used to be 100+ of us clamoring about models back in 2005, over time as the blooms faded participants of regularity have shrunk to 20 all of whom vigorously defend their baby.

I thank all of you who helped educate me about 850s and 500 and a Few other things but models and many of the alphabet soup of indexes have not proven to be general fund of knowledge enhancing 

Thank you for the courage of your comment, more of same is needed even with the chastizements  we face 

Oh no you don't...you started all this by dropping these nuggets for no reason in both storm threads earlier today.  You didn't post in banter.   And now you want to pull this passive aggressive BS "not the right place" crap because you're rightfully taking a beating for the nonsense garbage you posted.   

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
105 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

MDZ003>006-008-011-503>508-WVZ051>053-251915-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0004.210125T2100Z-210126T1500Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
105 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth
  of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast and
  northern Maryland and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening and morning commute.

 

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16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Dang those morning runs look decent right...I mean...are they all wrong?

They were made by NFL officials so some plays they get things right, some plays they don't.  Some runs they get right, some they don't.  Your job is now to figure out which one will happen.

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Temp never dropped below 35 last night. Dews already well on their way up with an east wind.  Will likely top out around 40 or take and then with full cloud cover that’s that. Even if somehow frozen falls I can’t see it being impactful for the immediate metro. This doesn’t look like a system that screams dynamic cooling. 

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Tonight will come down to where the heaviest precip sets up. The NAM's and HRRR come in hot and heavy while the RGEM and HRDPS keep the heaviest south of DC.  It's literally a 50 mile difference but that 50 miles will make the difference IMO whether there's a general .5-1" or 2-4". I hope the NAM's are right. 

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