snowfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3k is likely more realistic with its precip amounts. 12K showing huge ice issues evenfordc proper, which isn't going happen- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB 3K NAM at 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM at 12Z It’s that last map that makes little sense to me. Freezing rain typically becomes less the higher you go. If there’s cold deep enough to be freezing at around 4000 feet then it’s probably deep enough for sleet at lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Its meso time. NAMs get too much love. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 My forecast is for "around an inch". My goal is to see flakes fall at a decent clip for 30 mins, and end up with a coating that looks more impressive than all the heavy frosts I have seen over the past couple weeks. At least blocking patterns can still make frosty mornings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I'd rather the nam show what it showed vs not...no clue if it's right but if we are choosing what we'd rather see im going with this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Wow the GFS is really dry lol. Barely any precip thru 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Only .15-.25 for most of the area on precip on GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Wow the GFS is really dry lol. Barely any precip thru 6z It has been deteriorating for several runs now. The good waa precip gets shunted SE, and the remnant moisture from the parent low heads up over N PA and S NY. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 All bases covered 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: All bases covered Dude put up or shut up. All you do is complain yet I NEVER see you make a prediction on anything past a couple days. And frankly over the years your short range predictions based on the pressure in Pittsburg aren’t any more reliable then what the NWS has going using NWP along with classical methodology. Earlier this winter your method was completely useless and I had to explain to you that the lack of a “suppressive high” had absolutely nothing to do with why the storm was suppressed because it was the compressed flow in the Atlantic. The pressure was irrelevant. If you can predict the long range better without technology please show us. If you can’t then these bitter “old man yelling get off my lawn” posts are way past amusing. Oh and save us your “how dare you respond to me in a public thread” crap too. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 27 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: All bases covered Seriously man...just bug off. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro not showing much. Just not much precip. Also may be a tad warmer, but it's mostly noise/lack of precip problem. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Euro not showing much. Just not much precip. Also may be a tad warmer, but it's mostly noise/lack of precip problem. We’re toast for both storms lol imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z HRRR has a solid 2-4” thump for those north of DC. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 CWG issued their forecast map. With their absurd boom bust potential included theres 0 chance of being wrong. Factoring in boom bust, im supposed to see 0-3". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 LOL this is so perfect from Mount Holly. Not only a great and accurate description of this "event", but also in a larger sense how everything seems to come together and conspires to prevent it from snowing here. Uncanny. A long duration but mostly low impact weather system is expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will steadily fill in and occlude as upper level support diminishes, while a weak secondary coastal wave develops south of Delmarva. The result will be an increasingly elongated but poorly organized field of precipitation over the eastern half of the country, which will bring some unsettled weather to our area. Limiting factors with this system are plentiful. Dynamically, most of our precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be warm advection driven as the primary low tracks to our west. However, this lift source will be weakening as the system becomes more elongated and fractured. The mid level shortwave trailing the surface low will be deamplifying as it runs into ridging in place over the East. This ridging will also prevent the developing coastal wave from achieving any kind of coherent organization even as the primary low weakens. The result is a strung out mess both at the surface and aloft. In addition to weakening upper support, low level dry air will be plentiful at the onset with Canadian high pressure in place well to the north. This will erode the leading edge of the precipitation shield, and lead to a very slow northeastward advance of precipitation Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, snowfan said: CWG issued their forecast map. With their absurd boom bust potential included theres 0 chance of being wrong. Factoring in boom bust, im supposed to see 0-3". Was this threat ever supposed to be warning level snow? I know some runs were showing a lot of precip buts it’s drying up closer to game time. 0-3 is a good forecast IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: LOL this is so perfect from Mount Holly. Not only a great and accurate description of this "event", but also in a larger sense how everything seems to come together and conspires to prevent it from snowing here. Uncanny. A long duration but mostly low impact weather system is expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will steadily fill in and occlude as upper level support diminishes, while a weak secondary coastal wave develops south of Delmarva. The result will be an increasingly elongated but poorly organized field of precipitation over the eastern half of the country, which will bring some unsettled weather to our area. Limiting factors with this system are plentiful. Dynamically, most of our precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be warm advection driven as the primary low tracks to our west. However, this lift source will be weakening as the system becomes more elongated and fractured. The mid level shortwave trailing the surface low will be deamplifying as it runs into ridging in place over the East. This ridging will also prevent the developing coastal wave from achieving any kind of coherent organization even as the primary low weakens. The result is a strung out mess both at the surface and aloft. In addition to weakening upper support, low level dry air will be plentiful at the onset with Canadian high pressure in place well to the north. This will erode the leading edge of the precipitation shield, and lead to a very slow northeastward advance of precipitation Monday night. Yeah it’s really nicely detailed in how we fail lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north. Side note: I keep going back and forth on whether or not to hook up my plow for this event. I guess I'll do it just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north. I am going to go out on a limb and suggest it is overdoing the intensity of the precip on the front end just a tad. I know.. that would be very un-NAM like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 I’m looking forward to my 3-5 inches the nam has promised me tomorrow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Negnao said: I’m looking forward to my 3-5 inches the nam has promised me tomorrow. Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12K has a decent snow event out this way. Too bad it will be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north. Side note: I keep going back and forth on weather or not to hook up my plow for this event. I guess I'll do it just to be safe. Why set up plow...do you also own a pothole repair company? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 18 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north. Side note: I keep going back and forth on weather or not to hook up my plow for this event. I guess I'll do it just to be safe. 4 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 We could just have the mind set that the NAM is gonna be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 3km NAM is in decent agreement with is coarser brother. Has mini snow lollis and dead spots in between lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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