psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: Failure. I think this one was always destined for failure, no matter what. That is, if one was hoping for any significant snow. Me? If I can get an inch of frozen, its a mutherfuucking win. Yea...that’s sinking in...but what was missing from a pattern setup POV? We got a west to east weak wave. Baffin Rex Block. Polar airmass in the way (and yea it’s not cold enough but it’s an Arctic in origin airmass so we’re not getting any better unless the PV swings back to this side and that ain’t happening). This was a classic setup for a regular old DC snow event. Maybe not a big storm but some snow. I’m keenly aware of the limitations of the current N Hemisphere base state. But I’m running out of ideas how to “tinker” with the pattern to overcome it. We’ve tried everything. It’s like everytime we get a factor to compensate for one problem another pops up. Look at the next storm. We need more ridging and a strong primary to get an amplified storm given the block but because we have no cold anywhere to work with that risks turning it into a rainstorm. It’s starting to feel like a no win scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: If the current model trends continue, I am gonna guess this will be modified some. This was this morning and has since been updated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea...that’s sinking in...but what was missing from a pattern setup POV? We got a west to east weak wave. Baffin Rex Block. Polar airmass in the way (and yea it’s not cold enough but it’s an Arctic in origin airmass so we’re not getting any better unless the PV swings back to this side and that ain’t happening). This was a classic setup for a regular old DC snow event. Maybe not a big storm but some snow. I’m keenly aware of the limitations of the current N Hemisphere base state. But I’m running out of ideas how to “tinker” with the pattern to overcome it. We’ve tried everything. It’s like everytime we get a factor to compensate for one problem another pops up. Look at the next storm. We need more ridging and a strong primary to get an amplified storm given the block but because we have no cold anywhere to work with that risks turning it into a rainstorm. It’s starting to feel like a no win scenario. It's super frustrating. How can we FINALLY get a -AO and -NAO for almost two months, one of which is prime climo, and basically get absolutely nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea...that’s sinking in...but what was missing from a pattern setup POV? We got a west to east weak wave. Baffin Rex Block. Polar airmass in the way (and yea it’s not cold enough but it’s an Arctic in origin airmass so we’re not getting any better unless the PV swings back to this side and that ain’t happening). I’m keenly aware of the limitations of the current N Hemisphere base state. But I’m running out of ideas how to “tinker” with the pattern to overcome it. We’ve tried everything. It’s like everytime we get a factor to compensate for one problem another pops up. Look at the next storm. We need more ridging and a strong primary to get an amplified storm given the block but because we have no cold anywhere to work with that risks turning it into a rainstorm. It’s starting to feel like a no win scenario. I will just say this- if this were a moderate Nino and the AO/NAO were the same, I bet we would have a better outcome. Ninas just find a way to suck here more times than not. There is no substitute for a suppressed, active STJ for us. Now this argument might not work up in NE as they normally do well in a Nina, but then they are always playing with fire more than we are when there is a HL blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's super frustrating. How can we FINALLY get a -AO and -NAO for almost two months, one of which is prime climo, and basically get absolutely nothing? There seems to be a dominant color here.... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: I will just say this- if this were a moderate Nino and the AO/NAO were the same, I bet we would have a better outcome. Ninas just find a way to suck here more times than not. There is no substitute for a suppressed, active STJ for us. Now this argument might not work up in NE as they normally do well in a Nina, but then they are always playing with fire more than we are when there is a HL blocking pattern. This...and it also doesn’t work as an excuse if we end up with another single digit snowfall year in the DC/Balt area. Granted we have a long way to go yet and Thursday hopefully puts this thought to bed!!! But there are 2 types of Nina’s, one with a flat pac ridge and a vary +AO and ones with a more poleward heat flux and a less hostile AO. If we split the latter subset we average close to avg snowfall in those Nina’s. Yes a Nina mutes our potential during a -AO but historically that means we get something close to average snowfall instead of a huge year if it were a nino. And as you point out there are troubling signs elsewhere that “Nina” isn’t a valid excuse. Even in a Nina it shouldn’t be this warm or this hard to get snow in a -AO/NAO! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: This was this morning and has since been updated. On my end those are the most recent maps, but I feel like this has happened before where some people see older images. Could you share the updated maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There seems to be a dominant color here.... Actually surprised there is that much blue. What's hilarious though is the fact that in all that red a good bit of our source region is slightly cool, while Siberia is roasting. The opposite of what has killed us this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: On my end those are the most recent maps, but I feel like this has happened before where some people see older images. Could you share the updated maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Actually surprised there is that much blue. What's hilarious though is the fact that in all that red a good bit of our source region is slightly cool, while Siberia is roasting. The opposite of what has killed us this winter. It's not like the temperatures are crazy warm, but my guess is what kills us is the fact that the air is so modified by the time it reaches us. I'd also guess that snowcover is down as well to our northwest, which again, doesn't help fight the modifying air as it heads our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @CAPE you are 100% that a nino would have a better outcome. But what if that better outcome was still muted? If you add a few degrees to the whole pattern in February 2010 I’m not sure that even happens. Some of those storms were barely cold enough really. Or with less baroclinicity maybe they don’t amp up into those monsters. What if instead of 75” that produces only 40” in this current base state? I am in no way saying were done with snow. We will get snow again. But it’s a matter of degrees. I’m seeing troubling signs patterns/winters that should have produced like 10-15” produce 5”. @Maestrobjwa you asked about those signs. Yes I saw them before the last few years. These are times off the top of my head I remember scratching my head and saying hmmm. There was a storm in 2007 that had a picture perfect track mid winter and a beautiful h5 pass and we got 40 degree rain. Even up here all I could manage was some slush bombs. NYC was under a warning for 4-8” but even there it ended up cold rain and some mix. Not an inch. 2013 might be the best example before this winter where I am convinced AGW caused a worse result then the pattern suggested. We wasted a -NAO a big part of that winter too! But there was a wave following a cutter that was timed perfect and track was perfect and somehow the cities got all rain. I got about 3-4” but even here it started as rain and was 32/33 at the end. That wouldn’t have been huge but it should have been a 3-5” snowstorm. Those add up when your avg is only 14/19” in dc/Balt. But what happened in early March 2013 was the biggest red flag. That freaking storm should have been a 6-10” snowstorm. The first week of March is not too late. The airmass wasn’t that bad. The storm track was perfect. Upper low over VA. And DC got rain. Yea we pick at small details like DC only got .9 qpf instead of .14 because of some convection robbing moisture transport but that’s an excuse. We shouldn’t have needed dynamic cooling that much there. Those 2 storms hit and DC has 15” instead of like 3” that year. 2016 there was a perfect track coastal rainstorm in early January and again one in Feb. add in countless minor events that could have been 1-2” and instead were nothing. I could go on and on and on but yet I see signs it’s getting progressively harder to snow going back longer then a few years. That doesn’t mean we won’t get above normal snowfall winters. But maybe 20% vs 40% of the time. And worse some of the years that were bad but we at least fought our way to some snow are close to shutouts now. Now what I don’t know is how much of the recent acceleration of that trend is a temporary pattern v perhaps a tipping point being reached. I have no idea. But it is getting harder to snow and has been incrementally for a while. The one silver lining I’ll leave is we do seem to have elevated risks of a hecs whenever it does get cold due to an increased potential energy due to warming (when we actually do get a good thermal gradient in rare cold periods). So I’m sure eventually we get a cold spell and some 20” storm and everyone forgets this for a while. Hell maybe this week if were lucky. It will snow. But it’s snowing less. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There seems to be a dominant color here.... Oh dear...we're skirting close to breaking the rules here...lol However if this is affecting our snow chances, it's gonna be a bit more difficult to avoid the discussion because of the way things have been (unless we keep mentioning it as generallyrics as possible, keeping it solely to observation related to snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 @psuhoffman Man I hope you're wrong (except about the part where this part of this is due to more transient factors, lol). But if you're right...gonna be more a bit more hurt around here. Imagining a future reality of less snow saddens me...that's gonna be tough to take...but what can ya do? I guess you just enjoy the heck out of the snow you get and don't complain, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh dear...we're skirting close to breaking the rules here...lol However if this is affecting our snow chances, it's gonna be a bit more difficult to avoid the discussion because of the way things have been (unless we keep mentioning it as generallyrics as possible, keeping it solely to observation related to snow) I’ve said my peace. It’s getting warmer that part isn’t debatable. In the past that started ugly fights over the cause and the politics behind that. I’m not getting into that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 EURO holding steady with the front-end thump. 2-4” Alexandria north with the exception of NE Maryland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: EURO holding steady with the front-end thump. 2-4” Alexandria north. Wow, it actually even trended a touch better than 12z with the thump in MBY. Also, noticeably thumpier in the western part of NOVA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 WB 18Z EURO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO Who is not fringed again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I noticed a few Eps ensembles that are almost totally dry up here Monday and guidance seems to be getting drier and drier for us northern peeps . I still think it's a snow sleet predominant mix here with little zrain . But mostly cloudy skies is becoming a risk too But I do kind of expect the mesos to bump north inside 36 so well see So long as we get crushed Thursday let them have this one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: So long as we get crushed Thursday let them have this one. Are we getting crushed on Thursday?? Hope so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: So long as we get crushed Thursday let them have this one. Doubt anyone gets much snow anyway from this one, I think the euro is out to lunch on its snow vs/sleet and freezing rain depictions. If anyone thinks DC is getting 3” from this thing well, you’re gullible to the model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So long as we get crushed Thursday let them have this one. That seems like a complicated ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Euro seems on its own and that small band of snow seems to keep shrinking. This still seems like a half hour or hour of snow and then sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’ve said my peace. It’s getting warmer that part isn’t debatable. In the past that started ugly fights over the cause and the politics behind that. I’m not getting into that. Wasn't trying to fight. Just expressing disappointment is all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: That seems like a complicated ask I don’t like complicated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Who is not fringed again? Its a little better than that panel. WB WIll fail lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its a little better than that panel. WB WIll fail lol. Lol. That's the smallest areal coverage for a " thump " that I think I've ever seen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: Lol. That's the smallest areal coverage for a " thump " that I think I've ever seen lol Its pretty pathetic, and it may dwindle even more. This system doesn't have a lot going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Its pretty pathetic, and it may dwindle even more. This system doesn't have a lot going for it. It’s a prolific qpf producer and in a slightly colder airmass would be a huge score for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24, 2021 Share Posted January 24, 2021 12k NAM looks onboard with the thump. Surface looks slightly warmer but 850s slightly colder. Hopefully the NAMs smarter brother joins in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now