Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the trend with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern. the GFS is going to give us a 8-12 inch event on Tuesday for Wednesay night...and then 12 hours before game time...it will show 1-3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: Actually I think its says -2.5. Ok I'll buy that. It’s going to take 2.5” from a storm to be named later for the audacity of even trying. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS is going to give us a 8-12 inch event on Tuesday for Wednesay night...and then 12 hours before game time...it will show 1-3 I wont buy a solution like that unless its there 36 hours prior to game time. This deamplificaiton/suppression/shredding of decent looking shortwaves heading eastward has been persistent as hell since this blocking pattern has established. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the case with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern. everything came south except for the snow that the Euro gave us 3 days ago. Remeber the multiple double digit snow runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the case with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern. Yea but what good does it do anyone if the level of suppression it takes to stay cold also squashes everything to your south. Look at the axis of qpf. Guidance nailed that from day 10. But that band over northern VA was supposed to be snow and historically it SHOULD be! This is about the 5th storm this cold season that lacked any appreciable snow shield to the north of it at our latitude because the cold and precip never touched! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: I wont buy a solution like that unless its there 36 hours prior to game time. This deamplificaiton/suppression/shredding of decent looking shortwaves heading eastward has been persistent as hell since this blocking pattern has established. Not enough baroclinicity. These boundaries, even now, are lacking the potential energy they should have with a greater temperature gradient. It’s a little better now. At least the waves aren’t squashed to LA lol. But it’s still not enough to get them to amplify much given a suppressed flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea but what good does it do anyone if the level of suppression it raise to stay cold also squashed everything to your south. Look at the axis of qpf. Guidance nailed that from day 10. But that band over northern VA was supposed to be snow and historically it SHOULD be! This is about the 5th storm this cold season that lacked any appreciable snow shield to the north of it at our latitude because the cold and precip never touched! I get it. Its odd. But I have accepted that it's just not very cold despite the favorable HL pattern. The reasons can be debated elsewhere I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: I wont buy a solution like that unless its there 36 hours prior to game time. This deamplificaiton/suppression/shredding of decent looking shortwaves heading eastward has been persistent as hell since this blocking pattern has established. Strongly agree. 250mb winds are ripping as well and aiding in the shred process. The trend has been for sheared and weak, fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ji said: the GFS is going to give us a 8-12 inch event on Tuesday for Wednesay night...and then 12 hours before game time...it will show 1-3 At least you won't have a shitfit since you already know 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not enough baroclinicity. These boundaries, even now, are lacking the potential energy they should have with a greater temperature gradient. It’s a little better now. At least the waves aren’t squashed to LA lol. But it’s still not enough to get them to amplify much given a suppressed flow. Now isn't suppression more nina-like because of the tendency toward more NS activity? (I remember at one time in Jan 2018 seeing a parade of HP's coming down the middle of the country, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Now isn't suppression more nina-like because of the tendency toward more NS activity? (I remember at one time in Jan 2018 seeing a parade of HP's coming down the middle of the country, lol No. Suppression has to do with the blocking pattern, not ENSO state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 NWS first take: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: NWS first take: If the current model trends continue, I am gonna guess this will be modified some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: If the current model trends continue, I am gonna guess this will be modified some. Yeah personally I see the snow totals going down and maybe a tick up in the ice for the usual spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 39 minutes ago, Ji said: this always amuses me Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah personally I see the snow totals going down and maybe a tick up in the ice for the usual spots I think the snow totals could shift south if the euro scenario plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I think the snow totals could shift south if the euro scenario plays out. I don’t see much snow happening with this one period. Looks more like a sleet/freezing rain scenario with the WAA precip to me... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS keeps the theme of this being mostly an ice situation. My bar with this is a couple sleet pellets and a glaze of ice on tree branches over here by the bay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Definitely measly on the precip north of DC though. Drying trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB 18Z GFS. Looking slick for NW burbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 39 minutes ago, CAPE said: I get it. Its odd. But I have accepted that it's just not very cold despite the favorable HL pattern. The reasons can be debated elsewhere I guess. Yea but specific to this threat even....I’m BARELY cold enough here to snow. But the significant precip is all to my south. So what am I rooting for? Do I want a north trend? But since the precip is WAA driven if that shifts north the thermals shift north and I literally don’t have any room to give. So short of getting a pity inch on the fringes what’s even the path here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Definitely measly on the precip north of DC though. Drying trend continues GFS still pretty gung ho keeping the primary low dominant and intact, and has a decent event in southern NY state lol. Pretty much on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but specific to this threat even....I’m BARELY cold enough here to snow. But the significant precip is all to my south. So what am I rooting for? Do I want a north trend? But since the precip is WAA driven of that shifts north the thermals shift north and I literally don’t have any room to give. So short of getting a pity inch on the fringes what’s even the path here? Failure. I think this one was always destined for failure, no matter what. That is, if one was hoping for any significant snow. Me? If I can get an inch of frozen, its a mutherfuucking win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Failure. I think this one was always destined for failure, no matter what. That is, if one was hoping for any significant snow. Me? If I can get an inch of frozen, its a mutherfuucking win. My bar is 2 for Monday/Tuesday and 4 for Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Scratching my head trying to understand this. 40 plus years here. And here we go again with the average of 50 degrees after this week as we roll into February. Frustrating. Holding on for a few inches this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: Failure. I think this one was always destined for failure, no matter what. That is, if one was hoping for any significant snow. Me? If I can get an inch of frozen, its a mutherfuucking win. Yea...that’s sinking in...but what was missing from a pattern setup POV? We got a west to east weak wave. Baffin Rex Block. Polar airmass in the way (and yea it’s not cold enough but it’s an Arctic in origin airmass so we’re not getting any better unless the PV swings back to this side and that ain’t happening). This was a classic setup for a regular old DC snow event. Maybe not a big storm but some snow. I’m keenly aware of the limitations of the current N Hemisphere base state. But I’m running out of ideas how to “tinker” with the pattern to overcome it. We’ve tried everything. It’s like everytime we get a factor to compensate for one problem another pops up. Look at the next storm. We need more ridging and a strong primary to get an amplified storm given the block but because we have no cold anywhere to work with that risks turning it into a rainstorm. It’s starting to feel like a no win scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: If the current model trends continue, I am gonna guess this will be modified some. This was this morning and has since been updated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea...that’s sinking in...but what was missing from a pattern setup POV? We got a west to east weak wave. Baffin Rex Block. Polar airmass in the way (and yea it’s not cold enough but it’s an Arctic in origin airmass so we’re not getting any better unless the PV swings back to this side and that ain’t happening). This was a classic setup for a regular old DC snow event. Maybe not a big storm but some snow. I’m keenly aware of the limitations of the current N Hemisphere base state. But I’m running out of ideas how to “tinker” with the pattern to overcome it. We’ve tried everything. It’s like everytime we get a factor to compensate for one problem another pops up. Look at the next storm. We need more ridging and a strong primary to get an amplified storm given the block but because we have no cold anywhere to work with that risks turning it into a rainstorm. It’s starting to feel like a no win scenario. It's super frustrating. How can we FINALLY get a -AO and -NAO for almost two months, one of which is prime climo, and basically get absolutely nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Yea...that’s sinking in...but what was missing from a pattern setup POV? We got a west to east weak wave. Baffin Rex Block. Polar airmass in the way (and yea it’s not cold enough but it’s an Arctic in origin airmass so we’re not getting any better unless the PV swings back to this side and that ain’t happening). I’m keenly aware of the limitations of the current N Hemisphere base state. But I’m running out of ideas how to “tinker” with the pattern to overcome it. We’ve tried everything. It’s like everytime we get a factor to compensate for one problem another pops up. Look at the next storm. We need more ridging and a strong primary to get an amplified storm given the block but because we have no cold anywhere to work with that risks turning it into a rainstorm. It’s starting to feel like a no win scenario. I will just say this- if this were a moderate Nino and the AO/NAO were the same, I bet we would have a better outcome. Ninas just find a way to suck here more times than not. There is no substitute for a suppressed, active STJ for us. Now this argument might not work up in NE as they normally do well in a Nina, but then they are always playing with fire more than we are when there is a HL blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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