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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It misses me to the south kinda with that little snow band....then to the north with the second wave after I flip to ice. So...depending on what happens in the next 10 mins this could be an epic dumpster fire run for me lol. 

Snow chase to my yard?

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Its a messy disjointed system. 12z runs generally seem to bring the best band of waa precip in a bit stronger/ further south, as the leftover precip from the original low heads across PA and much of the area is left in between with just light stuff after the initial 'thump'.

NAM, CMC, and Euro all imply maybe a couple inches of snow/sleet here even. GFS completely sucks.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It misses me to the south kinda with that little snow band....then to the north with the second wave after I flip to ice. So...depending on what happens in the next 10 mins this could be an epic dumpster fire run for me lol. 

Honestly this gives me more hope for Thursday. Euro has been terrible with this event too

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Its a messy disjointed system. 12z runs generally seem to bring the best band of waa precip in a bit stronger/ further south, as the leftover precip from the original low heads across PA and much of the area is left in between with just light stuff after the initial 'thump'.

NAM, CMC, and Euro all imply maybe a couple inches of snow/sleet here even. GFS completely sucks.

Yup, GGEM and Euro are way better with thermal profiles in general. Got to favor them and then add in 3k NAM tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I don't remember that one, but 22 years ago, so meh.

I don't think it is even possible for DCA and BWI to get a major ice storm these days outside of some kind of crazy anomalous setup not seen in decades. Like sustained --20s and 30s up at my house in Randolph filtering towards down here.

This year is far from it.

Wait you have a house in Randolph?

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Now that it’s coming in range I think 3K NAM is the way to go with this one...I just don’t see the onset being snow with the timing mid afternoon and the low that far west. 3K starts as sleet/ice for cities then goes to rain after a few hours. Definitely could be a fairly significant ice situation for the usual spots with this one though but I just don’t buy the couple inches of snow that some modeling has spit out with this one 

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4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

95% of the population lives near I-95. There hasn't been a real ice storm in that zone since 1994.

You are basically in a totally different climate zone from these people. 

Greatest ice storm of all time.  My young family and I were skiing at Waterville valley in New Hampshire. The night before the storm hit Philly the temperature hit minus 32 degrees at Waterville.  The next morning it was 20 degrees in Philly.  And poring rain. We drove home two days later and the freezing line with ice was brutal.

We lost several trees north and west of Philly.  Everyone lost trees.

The second greatest ice storm happened around 2011-2012.  A little north of us.  Closed 78 and Lehigh university.  A bunch of my daughters Sorority sisters came to stay with us.   That was not to bad. lol 

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The trend for drier continues, esp the further north you go. The wave is moving into lots of dry air and high pressure, and looks to dampen. This is what i thought would be the most likely outcome a couple days ago, but the models trended the other way. Now trending back towards weak/de-amplified. This has been the case with nearly every wave attempting to move eastward in this current pattern.

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