mappy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: And no I dont believe that blue over my yard. I have been NAMed tho, such that it is with an event like this lol. Nice little appetizer ahead of Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, mappy said: Nice little appetizer ahead of Thursday We can hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12z NAM hitting the ice hard across N VA into most of MD and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: We can hope! I’ll be happy with anything frozen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Much more realistic than the 12km NAM on TT, which gives us a foot of snow. FYI i'm back from my little break, but I'll just be lurking and checking out the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I’m just hoping the 850’s are a bit colder than forecast or at least the cold is deep enough for sleet instead of ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Much more realistic than the 12km NAM, which gives us a foot of snow. FYI i'm back from my little break, but I'll just be lurking and checking out the other thread. That is the 12k NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Unless surface is trending colder those ice maps are bogus as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: That is the 12k NAM. Right. I meant the 12k NAM and not the 12km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 What did the 0z eps show for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 In 15 years of living in the city I can't recall ever seeing ice accretion due to freezing rain.. I look forward to this event! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, H2O said: Unless surface is trending colder those ice maps are bogus as hell Yeah that's not happening. The deal is getting heavier precip at the beginning, and maximizing on frozen. Once it goes to rain, with temps at 32, its just rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs looks a little colder at 850 to start nevermind...it did through 60 then went the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Remember that any freezing rain accumulation map is simply tallying rain falling with a sfc temp at or below 32; it is NOT a measure of how much ice will accrete on surfaces. Looking at the NAM and NAM nest, the temperature during Monday stays at or just above freezing before the precip arrives and then drops to or just below freezing after the precip arrives. This usually is not a recipe for significant ice accumulation on roads, sidewalks, etc.... although it can accumulate on trees in that scenario. The only place in the NAM where sfc temps fall a few degrees below freezing is far northern MD. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFS doesn’t look like much in the way of frozen sans the favored areas. ETA 32 and rain will likely just result in glazed trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Gfs is kinda a nothing burger wrt snow. It confined the heavy banding south across central VA where it’s just rain. Pretty paltry precip up to the north where it would be cold enough. That’s why the warmer result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 30 minutes ago, Yeoman said: In 15 years of living in the city I can't recall ever seeing ice accretion due to freezing rain.. I look forward to this event! We have def had ice storms in NW over the past 15 years. It was more than 15 years ago, but there was a huge one in 99’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 57 minutes ago, nj2va said: Not that I think Deep Creek will see 1.5” of ice accretion but even half of that is a huge deal. Geez. Sure is. I was in southern MD in 1994 for 2-plus inches of ice accretion -- you do NOT want to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 41 minutes ago, Yeoman said: In 15 years of living in the city I can't recall ever seeing ice accretion due to freezing rain.. I look forward to this event! We have had ice events. I've even seen non-salted downtown DC sidewalks covered in ice at times, including one storm a few years ago that started in the evening and persisted into the next afternoon. What i have never seen, and which the media almost always over hypes beforehand, is an ice event that actually results in ice-covered streets, except for perhaps some side streets in far Upper Northwest DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GGEM still with a snowier start for DC and points north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GGEM still with a snowier start for DC and points north. I like the Canadian better because it doesn’t have all that ice. I’ll admit it, I’m afraid of ice. We got just a half inch in Winchester a few years ago and it caused a good bit of damage. An inch would be catastrophic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 36 minutes ago, real said: We have had ice events. I've even seen non-salted downtown DC sidewalks covered in ice at times, including one storm a few years ago that started in the evening and persisted into the next afternoon. What i have never seen, and which the media almost always over hypes beforehand, is an ice event that actually results in ice-covered streets, except for perhaps some side streets in far Upper Northwest DC DC isn’t the real world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: DC isn’t the real world 95% of the population lives near I-95. There hasn't been a real ice storm in that zone since 1994. You are basically in a totally different climate zone from these people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 95% of the population lives near I-95. There hasn't been a real ice storm in that zone since 1994. You are basically in a totally different climate zone from these people. Yeah, I have been inside or near the DC beltway since 2010 and we have not had any legit ice events. Plenty of glazed trees, glazed sidewalks, etc; but never significant ice accretion beyond 0.1" This one I'm expecting more of the same. Grass/colder spots get some snow, then an icy crust. The rain washes everything away on the roads/warmer surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: 95% of the population lives near I-95. There hasn't been a real ice storm in that zone since 1994. You are basically in a totally different climate zone from these people. I realize that but you can go 30 miles west of 95 and an ice storm can be a very big deal. I agree that they don’t happen often. I wish they never happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 95% of the population lives near I-95. There hasn't been a real ice storm in that zone since 1994. You are basically in a totally different climate zone from these people. We had a terrible one in Jan 99’. At least 1/2 inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, chris21 said: We had a terrible one in Jan 99’. At least 1/2 inch of ice. I don't remember that one, but 22 years ago, so meh. I don't think it is even possible for DCA and BWI to get a major ice storm these days outside of some kind of crazy anomalous setup not seen in decades. Like sustained --20s and 30s up at my house in Randolph filtering towards down here. This year is far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, PhineasC said: 95% of the population lives near I-95. There hasn't been a real ice storm in that zone since 1994. You are basically in a totally different climate zone from these people. 2007 was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: 2007 was a good one. V- day? Mostly sleet. I think we are talking about the thick glaze on all surfaces stuff. Where it rains at 17 degrees. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, PhineasC said: V- day? Mostly sleet. I think we are talking about the thick glaze on all surfaces stuff. Where it rains at 17 degrees. Its been the mid 90s since that happened for the lowlands. 2 events in the same winter but I forget the exact year. One had a bunch of sleet and freezing rain. It was a disaster even over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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