Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Has most of the forum at all snow for at least 5-6 hours. Would be a win. Yeah...Monday evening looks pretty legit by DC standards.....even DC looks like wet snow and like 33 until we flip mid to late evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is a pretty substantial shift. From nada to 4" IMBY lol.We're kinda back to where we started 2 days ago Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Doesn't even end up a forum divider. That's the storm total. Basically no FRZA, just thump than dry slot. Probably an unpopular opinion but I'd trade Thursday's potential away to lock that up right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 nice appetizer now on to the real show... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: could be a nice thump before the flip - in the usual spots.... The boundary layer was considerably cooler this run compared to the last set. 850mb temps were 1-3C colder at onset which is huge. That was a really nice run. Borderline WSW for the NW folks and a solid WWA for DC proper. Good run 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 nice appetizer now on to the real show... Your banking too much on the euro making a dramatic leap tonight for Thursday Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 winchester/martinsburg could be pretty nasty...temps dont get above 32 until Tuesday morning and there is light precip falling all night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Your banking too much on the euro making a dramatic leap tonight for Thursday Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Not banking on anything...I have no control over it. I do suspect it will come north some from 12z but if it doesn't I will still go to sleep and wake up in the morning just the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 06z GFS continues banging the drum on a sig ice storm for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 54 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GFS continues banging the drum on a sig ice storm for the region NAM looking icy too. Outside of far western areas, where the combo of higher qpf/colder surface temps will coincide, a legit ice storm doesn't seem very likely. The general character of this event looks like some snow/sleet at that start, then zr, and for the lowlands, turning to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro overdid the snow on a marginal event close in awhile back that ended up a nothing burger. I suspect it's smoking that same crack here. NAM seems more realistic...guess I will have to walk down steps without holding the handrails again. Wish me luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro is nice to wake up to!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is nice to wake up to!! The 6z run looks much more realistic, and closer to the GFS. Still nice for your yard and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Yep. More like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 6z run looks much more realistic, and closer to the GFS. Still nice for your yard and north. Thanks for the cold, bottom of the pot, cup of coffee friend! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Thanks for the cold, bottom of the pot, cup of coffee friend! I get the grinds, as usual lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z IBM looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: 6z IBM looks good His overview of the event sounds surprisingly accurate and underhyped. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: His overview of the event sounds surprisingly accurate and underhyped. Famous last words, but I feel like the forecast, for my yard at least, is fairly stable. Couple-few hours of decent snow Monday evening, then some sleet, probably ended by quite a long time of light rain with temps between 30-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Famous last words, but I feel like the forecast, for my yard at least, is fairly stable. Couple-few hours of decent snow Monday evening, then some sleet, probably ended by quite a long time of light rain with temps between 30-34. well if its 30-31 wouldn't be -FRZA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Famous last words, but I feel like the forecast, for my yard at least, is fairly stable. Couple-few hours of decent snow Monday evening, then some sleet, probably ended by quite a long time of light rain with temps between 30-34. 12z NAM is warm upstairs as the precip comes in, but it cools to right around 0c at 850 as the precip gets going. Probably snow/sleet before it transitions to freezing rain/rain. Its even pretty good over here, and has the best area of front end snow in extreme NE MD. SE PA, into NJ. Interesting. Hints of some drier air from the NE and some evap cooling maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: 12z NAM is warm upstairs as the precip comes in, but it cools to right around 0c at 850 as the precip gets going. Probably snow/sleet before it transitions to freezing rain/rain. Its even pretty good over here, and has the best area of snow in extreme NE MD. SE PA, into NJ. Interesting. Yeah, 850s bump north into PA but then drop back a bit w the arrival of heavier precip. Starting to key in on at least some front end frozen before light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 NAM thru 75 shows that surface temps are below freezing NW of i-95 for basically the duration of the event. Ice ice baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Nam would be a pretty sig event....much colder run. Pretty much .75" - 1" qpf areawide with a lot of places remaining well below freezing for the duration. Would be nice to see the colder trend continue today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: Yeah, 850s bump north into PA but then drop back a bit w the arrival of heavier precip. Starting to key in on at least some front end frozen before light rain. I know these surface p-type maps tend to be wonky, but it aligns with the cooling aloft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 6z IBM looks good DEEP THUNDER! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Our shot at frozen is very dependent on the intensity of precip as it comes in. Much better/more expansive eastward on the NAM this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 And no I dont believe that blue over my yard. I have been NAMed tho, such that it is with an event like this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Not that I think Deep Creek will see 1.5” of ice accretion but even half of that is a huge deal. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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