yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Big ice storm in N VA into DC... yikes I81 corridor gets smoked with ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: I love a good ice storm yea I actually have something REALLY important to do that day...and I have no problem driving in snow. I have driven through actual blizzards out west where I could only see 10 feet in front of the car. I have absolutely no issue with snow. But ICE....no thank you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Winchester was such a nice place...shame...real shame. 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Winchester was such a nice place...shame...real shame. I can’t tell you how scary that looks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 0z NAM is painful up here...I get almost no snow but 20 miles north of me gets 10" lol. Probably too much to ask to get that to start to shift south when the overall bleed is the other way the last 72 hours. Kind of like the cities in Dec lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Is that ice accretion total?! Yeah last time we had anything close to that was Feb 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 An inch of ice accretion is highly improbable. Of course it’s not impossible but unless temps are well below 32 and rates are light I just can’t see it. Obviously if it looks like this Sunday you’d have to start prepping for the worst. I was supposed to be in Winchester for a dentist appointment Monday and to visit my mom but 4 hours on the road with all this potential ice, I’ll probably cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Canadian is a much better result than the gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, notvirga! said: An inch of ice accretion is highly improbable. Of course it’s not impossible but unless temps are well below 32 and rates are light I just can’t see it. Obviously if it looks like this Sunday you’d have to start prepping for the worst. I was supposed to be in Winchester for a dentist appointment Monday and to visit my mom but 4 hours on the road with all this potential ice, I’ll probably cancel. Wait, so lighter rates of freezing rain cause things to be more slippery than heavier rates? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Canadian is a much better result than the gfs Looks like 1 to 3/2 to 3 inches of snow across much of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wait, so lighter rates of freezing rain cause things to be more slippery than heavier rates? Unless it’s super cold yes due to latent heat release. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The GFS would be catastrophic in the Shenandoah Valley. No other way to put it. We are gonna lose power then get blasted on Thursday according to that run. Sounds like fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Cue @PhineasC to remind us about modeled ice storms 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I can’t tell you how scary that looks. It would really really really suck...so this is not minimizing it...but sometimes I do think we overplay ice a wee bit...considering we survived like 2" of it in 1994 and yea it sucked but we made it. We are all here to tell the tale. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The GFS would be catastrophic in the Shenandoah Valley. No other way to put it. We are gonna lose power then get blasted on Thursday according to that run. Sounds like fun 30 and ice is catastrophic?Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 30 and ice is catastrophic? Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk An inch of it? Yeah. UK looks more like the cmc than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Para icy AF as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 the ice map is a QPF map, kids. Larry Cosgrove disagreesSent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is a heads up to all that the ZR accumulation maps are just model interpreted rain soundings falling into sub-freezing surface layer. The total ice is another physical paradigm that has a lot of other factors at play. This event is certainly looking frozen for a lot in the forum, but mainly a quick snow to sleet/zr as the lower boundary layer warms quickly with the wave pressing northeast. However, the antecedent airmass ahead and in place during the event will be enough to create some issues, especially with a lot of the precip occurring after prime heating. Low dew points in the region should provide sufficient wet bulb to ~29/30 for areas to the NW of the fall line, which could lead to prolonged icing concerns for the evening. Hourly precip is light for the most part as well, so this should allow for a better accretion environment IF the GFS were to oblige verbatim. Looking at a sample sounding on Monday evening, check out KFDK where the precip algorithm is basically on the border of snow/sleet with ice further to the south and east. This is such a razor thin margin for what type of precip will be dominant during the beginning of greater mid-level ascent. In fact, it's even more of a snow signature for areas north of I-70 which is a benchmark for these types of borderline events. This has Winter Weather Advisory written all over it with an outside shot at WSW for areas north of the interstate and out by I-81. Lift is there. The cold is there for once. It's a matter of boundary layer warmth off the southerly low level flow between 7H and the surface. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I wish you an inch of ice!Beneath my typing fingers yes?Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro looks colder thru 48Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro looks colder thru 48 Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk still slightly colder through 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 still slightly colder through 60 Still below zero at 850 thru 72Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro is a pretty nasty CAD event well NW of DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Whoa heavy snow at 72 lok Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 could be a nice thump before the flip - in the usual spots.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Whoa heavy snow at 72 lok Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk somehow everyone missed it, or maybe I missed the posts...but rgem had a nice band of snow running right along route 50 in VA at the start of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: could be a nice thump before the flip - in the usual spots.... Your storm is Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: could be a nice thump before the flip - in the usual spots.... Has most of the forum at all snow for at least 5-6 hours. Would be a win. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 This is a pretty substantial shift. From nada to 4" IMBY lol. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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