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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My wife gave me the "are you kidding me" look about 2 years after we moved and she found out why I love Reisterstown so much. Having 600 ft+ elevation really helps in marginal events.

Try convincing your wife to buy a cabin up in Redfield NY. Mine thinks it's a weekend place...but hoping to make it a permanent residence at least for a couple of years.

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17 minutes ago, Amped said:

Fringed, but who cares?   It's weak sauce anyways.   A miller B with a 997 primary.   Jackpot  east of ohio is 6".  

sxxITXh.png

 

Kind of an odd little band of heavy snow on the front end literally a few miles to my NE. If that's real I need it to expand a tad.

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10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Looks like a busy 4/5 day period and models showing every possible outcome from ideal 997 off va beach to central lakes cutter. 

Which model shows the lakes cutter?  You know what’s crazy about this crusade of yours...you set an impossible standard so you can complain about the guidance.  And yes we don’t know exactly where the rain snow line will set up for the overrunning wave Monday night. Could be somewhere between DC and Harrisburg. But if we didn’t have NWP we would have no freaking idea what Monday was even going to look like yet!!!  And next Thursday...maybe it ends up a NC event and Maybe DC but before NWP we wouldn’t have any clue there was even a threat of ANYTHING on the east coast that day.  Before satellite and NWP when some of the smartest meteorologists applied only your techniques a 48 hour forecast was like a 7 day one today. There were huge busts back then with no lead time.  But instead of focusing on the amazing advancement we’ve made...the fact we even know there will be two waves next week...you want to go all Paul Bunyan and rail against the evil chainsaw.  Why don’t you learn how to use the new technology and supplement your old school methods instead of complaining incessantly about it!  Btw still waiting for you to ever contribute a day 5-10 forecast that beats the ones generating with the aid of guidance. 

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Pretty good summary here from Mount Holly-

A messy setup all around, from the synoptic structure of the storm system to the actual surface weather conditions. Low pressure tracking out of the Mississippi Valley region will become highly elongated and likely separate into a weakening parent low tracking west of us and a developing secondary wave over or just south of us. This will lead to a fairly prolonged precipitation event. The precipitation will mainly be driven by warm advection, but that lift source is going to be weakening, and consequently so will the precipitation shield. So may be a case of a long duration but mainly light intensity event. Given the weakening dynamics and lack of strong warm advection, as well as a northeast as opposed to east or southeast surface flow, am skeptical about how much plain rain will become involved outside of the southernmost zones. Currently feel frozen ptypes will be favored in most areas, though that could certainly include a good deal of sleet and freezing rain in addition to snow. Considering the relatively modest expectations for QPF, have an early suspicion of an advisory level event in most of the area, but still a lot of details yet to be determined.

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning.

Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

Yup. I imagine most of us S&E of 95 who got nil in Dec would agree. I'm good with anything other than 38 degree rain.

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