kristia Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: I can hardly remember a day with less diurnal variation than today. So far a low of 30.4 and a high of 35.2. A spread of merely 4.8 degrees. Sitting nicely at 34.5 / 22.8 while waiting for it to start. . Hi neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 There has to be warm layers above. You don’t get plain rain at 32 without it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Been busy today. Just saw the WWA in effect for here, Damn, going with 1-3 inches. More bullish than I expected. Mount Holly AFD- A complex weather pattern is evolving across the eastern two- thirds of the country. A surface low in the central Plains is ejecting eastward, attendant to a midlevel vort max shearing out in the downstream confluent flow across the Midwest and Northeast. Meanwhile, a strong vort max is digging southeast through the prairies of southern Canada, which will force the eastward acceleration of the southern-stream system. A zonally- oriented baroclinic zone extends to the southern Mid-Atlantic, with precipitation spreading into Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon. As the baroclinic zone lifts northward somewhat this evening, a predecessor perturbation will race through the Mid-Atlantic region. With ambient boundary-layer dry air (sufficiently cool given the overcast spreading northward into the southern/central CWA today), a thump of precipitation will spread into Delmarva this evening. Model soundings suggest a few hours of strong omega in the dendritic growth zone, so if the low levels can saturate, some decent snow rates (up to a half inch per hour) may occur. Combined with wet-bulbing effects, a quick one to two inches of snow may accumulate, as advertised via much of the hi-res guidance. Have issued a winter weather advisory for Delmarva for this threat from 7 pm to 4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 On the dual-pol radar correlation coefficient, there is indication of melting at around 3000 ft (eyeballing the 3.1 degree scan). Something to watch if this disappears as the heavier precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Plain rain in Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, kristia said: Hi neighbor! Hi! Hoping that you all up in Middletown are able to do a bit better today with your elevation. We wanted to move to Middletown a few years ago but it didn't work out. Best place to be in Frederick County for events like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Hi! Hoping that you all up in Middletown are able to do a bit better today with your elevation. We wanted to move to Middletown a few years ago but it didn't work out. Best place to be in Frederick County for events like this Sabillasville is a golden spot as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Sabillasville is a gold spot as well. It sure is. That whole stretch from Emmittsburg through Sabillasville through Smithsburg (Washington County) is great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: On the dual-pol radar correlation coefficient, there is indication of melting at around 3000 ft (eyeballing the 3.1 degree scan). Something to watch if this disappears as the heavier precip moves in. I've never heard of this technique... Are you using trig and distance from the dish to estimate here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 If it's raining in Winchester I assume the mid levels are too warm. I would also assume that since it's rain (not sleet) that they are pretty warm indeed. Can rates really overcome that? I really just don't want to get my hopes up for snow if this is just going to be freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Starting as RAIN in Round Hill. 33/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I am perplexed by this also. I would think that somewhere above its way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 38/29... down a degree since 4:30 but feeling pretty nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 anyone seeing anything frozen yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 36/23 with sleet in Lucketts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 32F rain. Just great Check that. Lost 3 degrees on the drive home. 29F rain. Even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, IUsedToHateCold said: If it's raining in Winchester I assume the mid levels are too warm. I would also assume that since it's rain (not sleet) that they are pretty warm indeed. Can rates really overcome that? I really just don't want to get my hopes up for snow if this is just going to be freezing rain. Rates alone can't but if the atmosphere above is dry, as the snow melts and evaporates the column can cool and help turn the rain to snow. That's what the models have been advertising. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I've never heard of this technique... Are you using trig and distance from the dish to estimate here? Pretty much...I don't know of a site that gives good range rings (COD has 50nm) so it could be off. There is a more formal technique called quasi-vertical profiling where you take the average of the higher elevation scans (e.g. 10 degrees) and plot over time - really useful for seeing how the melting layer evolves over time and other things like dendritic growth. It's becoming more popular in research papers but I don't know of a site that does it in real time. eta: the obs of rain/drizzle make sense if the layer is at 3000ft- that's probably too shallow below that to refreeze into sleet pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 35/16 here and cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 34/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: anyone seeing anything frozen yet? Co-worker in Herndon said it’s sleeting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 34.6/18 High today 35.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy_Valley Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 31.3/28.7. Rain with sleet on the VA/WV line out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Obs competed to modeled already makes the NAM’s wrong as they had precip as snow here by this time. I guess we will see what happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Who has a current upper air map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 The waiting is the hardest part...either it will or it won't...I guess we will see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Hi! Hoping that you all up in Middletown are able to do a bit better today with your elevation. We wanted to move to Middletown a few years ago but it didn't work out. Best place to be in Frederick County for events like this First winter here. Compared to what I used to get in Baltimore County, I have high hopes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Standing outside face up waiting for my first flakes and... drip! Typical of the past 2 winters lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Light sleet started in Germantown; 35 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 There’s stuff on radar just to my south. Am I doing this right? I’m nervous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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