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Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting


stormtracker
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  On 1/25/2021 at 7:52 PM, George BM said:

Not an expert opinion but that line of convection across Kentucky looks more organized than most CAMs have it which may signify stronger WAA just ahead of it which may help us get a stronger thump.

 

1252021winterevent.thumb.PNG.a2680c87703dbafcb73bb44a4052c922.PNG

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A coworker in Cincinnati says it’s been pouring rain all day, heavier than expected

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Very glad to see the dearth of 10:1 maps!      Kuchera is a step up, but those will still be a bit generous in an event with such a sizable depth of the lower atmosphere with temps close to 0.    It's also worth noting that the 18z NAM and NAM nest both cut down their QPF a bit, relative to 12z...

I'm still going with the NAM nest as my model of choice here, and the Ferrier maps will best account for some accumulation being lost to riming with temps so close to 0 at several levels.   DC people will be happy that it wants to whiten things there.   For the rest of us north of DC, I think it's best to plan on 1-2 and hope that a few places overperform.     Anyone expecting widespread 2-4 will likely be disappointed.

2031794830_ScreenShot2021-01-25at3_07_28PM.thumb.png.01d0467c1b4b60ef485fa7966c39099c.png

 

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  On 1/25/2021 at 7:46 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s just his birth year (43) and the last year he had sex (68)

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Thanks. I look younger than my actual age and the number you posted knocks 6 years off it. And for the second one it’s in hours. 

  On 1/25/2021 at 7:54 PM, mappy said:

lol this makes me laugh a lot. thank you.

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Hush. Ageism is a terrible thing. And his post was so far off it was laughable. So that’s what I did. I laughed. 
 

Baro is 30.05 to make this post non banter. Hip hurts so it’s gonna rain

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  On 1/25/2021 at 8:38 PM, H2O said:

Thanks. I look younger than my actual age and the number you posted knocks 6 years off it. And for the second one it’s in hours. 

Hush. Ageism is a terrible thing. And his post was so far off it was laughable. So that’s what I did. I laughed. 
 

Baro is 30.05 to make this post non banter. Hip hurts so it’s gonna rain

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like i will let you live it down. 1943 was a good year, no? :lol:

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  On 1/25/2021 at 8:14 PM, high risk said:

Very glad to see the dearth of 10:1 maps!      Kuchera is a step up, but those will still be a bit generous in an event with such a sizable depth of the lower atmosphere with temps close to 0.    It's also worth noting that the 18z NAM and NAM nest both cut down their QPF a bit, relative to 12z...

I'm still going with the NAM nest as my model of choice here, and the Ferrier maps will best account for some accumulation being lost to riming with temps so close to 0 at several levels.   DC people will be happy that it wants to whiten things there.   For the rest of us north of DC, I think it's best to plan on 1-2 and hope that a few places overperform.     Anyone expecting widespread 2-4 will likely be disappointed.

2031794830_ScreenShot2021-01-25at3_07_28PM.thumb.png.01d0467c1b4b60ef485fa7966c39099c.png

 

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Dont think DC people will be happy about a whitening. All day this has evolved toward  a 2-3” event for most of City and to north and west  

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  On 1/25/2021 at 8:51 PM, Paleocene said:

why do you post here

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Because I like making observations as the event approaches and during it. If I reject model worship or negative nellies then you will have to deal with it.

Now back to observations and let moderators deal with those who interject emotional chastisements 

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