DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I’m thinking 2-3” on a corridor from MRB to FDK across up to about my yard in Westminster over to Bel Air. Localized jack somewhere right along 70 from a FDK to Mt. Airy to Mariottsville/Ellicott City Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Damn, 3k NAM is a sub forum wide party at 0z I’m mobile, can you give me a visual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Damn, 3k NAM is a sub forum wide party at 0z Who knew tonight would be our storm! And to think people wanted to punt just to get to Thursday’s disaster. Eta: FWIW - 12z NAM 3K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 no one mentioned this but GFS Para is first global to really see the snow tonight 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. That's not really what he's doing here (though you may not have intended it to come across that way)... 9 minutes ago, high risk said: Use the NAM nest, and use the snow depth or Ferrier product for an event like this. Shows the idea of a 1-2" event from northern Loudoun across Montgomery and Howard into Baltimore which matches the HRRR nicely. This doesn't mean "discount the NAM", it simply states don't use the ridiculous 10:1 snow maps when we're looking at not all snow in a marginal setup, but to use the other algorithms instead for this situation (and to use the 3-km NAM nest). 'd by @high risk himself, LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Furiously opening the biggest Christmas present under the tree hoping that it's not underwear and socks. If this dumpster fire of an event delivers then I'm not ruling out some fluff on Thursday yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Meanwhile the 540 line is North of Harrisburg. I’m no expert but that usually doesn’t translate well to sustained or accumulating frozen in the immediate DC metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: no one mentioned this but GFS Para is first global to really see the snow tonight Euro has been quite consistent on a band of snow tonight north of DC. It’s the GFS bros that haven’t had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: That's not really what he's doing here (though you may not have intended it to come across that way)... This doesn't mean "discount the NAM", it simply states don't use the ridiculous 10:1 snow maps when we're looking at not all snow in a marginal setup, but to use the other algorithms instead for this situation (and to use the 3-km NAM nest). 'd by @high risk himself, LOL! Well sorry, I agree (it’s not discounting). I should have clarified he’s saying the verbatim output for 10-1 maps and face value is pretty unlikely! Sorry @high risk! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: no one mentioned this but GFS Para is first global to really see the snow tonight And yet I still wouldn't move to Iowa if you paid me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Well sorry, I agree (it’s not discounting). I should have clarified he’s saying the verbatim output for 10-1 maps and face value is pretty unlikely! Sorry @high risk! No worries, I kind of thought you probably didn't intend for it to come out quite that way. Regardless, even an inch or two with some sleet is making this a lot more interesting than I thought a day ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. I don’t think he dismisses it. He interprets it where as some just say it’s wrong. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 And to be clear I don’t ever look at snow maps. I only look at precip totals. And yes I can be suckered into one that looks juicy (there ya go RR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: And yet I still wouldn't move to Iowa if you paid me i would live in iowa...stayed there for about 3 weeks. Its pretty and peaceful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Damn, 3k NAM is a sub forum wide party at 0z hows it up here? have two reports going out at work this week so a bit distracted by far too many maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: And yet I still wouldn't move to Iowa if you paid me Why? It’s just southern Minnesota lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i would live in iowa...stayed there for about 3 weeks. Its pretty and peaceful Right - when you never leave your house, who cares where you live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: hows it up here? have two reports going out at work this week so a bit distracted by far too many maps Good, but frankly, I may be in the sweet spot for this. Probably 2-3” verbatim then sleet and fzra. As @high risk said, there’s probably a narrow region where the dynamics max out the WWA precip this evening and its cold enough to snow and accumulate. At the moment, it looks like that’s south of you. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: hows it up here? have two reports going out at work this week so a bit distracted by far too many maps Your thermal profile will certainly support snow, but you'll be fighting reduced QPF that far north. Some snow, though, seems quite likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 QPF here is higher on the 3k NAM than it is on the 12k. That's a promising sign for my yard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Good, but frankly, I may be in the sweet spot for this. Probably 2-3” verbatim then sleet and fzra. As @high risk said, there’s probably a narrow region where the dynamics max out the WWA precip this evening and its cold enough to snow and accumulate. At the moment, it looks like that’s south of you. Just now, high risk said: Your thermal profile will certainly support snow, but you'll be fighting reduced QPF that far north. Some snow, though, seems quite likely. Thanks guys! I'm good with anything that falls even if its not the jackpot zone. enjoy whatever you may get! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 WB 12Z 3K NAM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Damn, 3k NAM is a sub forum wide party at 0z Guess I’ve been booted from the forum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Guess I’ve been booted from the forum. Fringed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Fringed again It’s a living Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 WB 3K NAM at 7pm....hope this verifies for everyone!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Latest HRRRRRRR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Wow. The Nams are an serious thump out this way. Stay all frozen here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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