aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, H2O said: the bone dry expert 6z Euro just said HIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Did it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 All models that don’t show what I want are trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Did it? 12 hours from the "event" and we still have no clue what to expect. The past 10 comments really enforce that. Dry, wet, better, worse lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: All models that don’t show what I want are trash Pattern recognition is what this storm is all about.. Snow to freezing rain to rain, we've had this pattern a quadrillion times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, winterymix said: Pattern recognition is what this storm is all about.. Snow to freezing rain to rain, we've had this pattern a quadrillion times. Need it to be juiced up on the front end, and this is a disorganized system in a weakening state as it moves east, so that is very much in question. For eastern areas, If we don't get decent precip early, it will be a few sleet pellets to rain. This literally happens all the time in set ups like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Need it to be juiced up on the front end, and this is a disorganized system in a weakening state as it moves east, so that is very much in question. For eastern areas, If we don't get decent precip early, it will be a few sleet pellets to rain. This literally happens all the time in set ups like this. That’s why I’m encouraged by the models that are bumping up precip as it gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, winterymix said: Pattern recognition is what this storm is all about.. Snow to freezing rain to rain, we've had this pattern a quadrillion times. Which can be great if you get that juiced up precip as it moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Hrrr looks promising staying mostly frozen for most. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ge0 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Good morning. Drizzle and 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Been holding very steady at 30.7 all morning. Starting to drizzle now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Radar ob, looking pretty good over SWVA/the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 HRRR looks good for mostly snow and then some ice, but the rates must be pathetic. Snows for 4-6 hours and most areas get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeff B Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 31/19 in 21136Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NAM is a big hit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 16 minutes ago, osfan24 said: HRRR looks good for mostly snow and then some ice, but the rates must be pathetic. Snows for 4-6 hours and most areas get an inch. exactly. Here is the HRRR QPF during the time when it shows mostly snow for areas north of DC: And the vertical profiles show that temps are just barely cold enough aloft to stay as snow until you get further north in MD. Ugly tradeoff here: You need to go southwest to get higher QPF, but the better profiles will be further north. There *may* be a sweet spot somewhere in the middle (Howard-Montgomery deathband, anyone?) where they get into the slightly higher QPF and have a profile that just barely supports snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Ji said: NAM is a big hit lol Interesting what it's been doing with the 850s once the precip gets rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM is a big hit lol still out of range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: still out of range what is the purpose of the model? It showing snow 10 hours away and its discounted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Ji said: what is the purpose of the model? It showing snow 10 hours away and its discounted I have no clue....I want it to be right is all I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: what is the purpose of the model? It showing snow 10 hours away and its discounted Trolling the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: I have no clue....I want it to be right is all I know Just now, leesburg 04 said: I have no clue....I want it to be right is all I know make sure you discount the elite NAM 3k too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Perfect scenario on the nams. Heavy precip, wet bulb down to freezing, just cold enough upstairs. After sunset start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Woah...both NAMs look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Use the NAM nest, and use the snow depth or Ferrier product for an event like this. Shows the idea of a 1-2" event from northern Loudoun across Montgomery and Howard into Baltimore which matches the HRRR nicely. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I think it’s foolish to just dismiss the NAM out of hand. Of course we have a lot of people who just “know” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it’s foolish to just dismiss the NAM out of hand. Of course we have a lot of people who just “know” Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it’s foolish to just dismiss the NAM out of hand. Of course we have a lot of people who just “know” i dont think high risk is discounting a 1-3 inch event. But to get 4-5 inches...you are going to need some white out conditions lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Damn, 3k NAM is a sub forum wide party at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, DDweatherman said: Well I mean @high risk works in NWP is sorta saying to discount it, so hard to give it weight. To be clear, I'm saying to discount the heaver NAM12 QPF, and always discount the 10:1 maps in an event with marginal temperature profiles. But I would absolutely not discount the NAM nest, for which the reasonable snow products have 1-2" for areas north of DC (and maybe some snow inside the DC Beltway too for a little while). Look at the other CAMs rolling in this morning: the HRRR and all 3 hi-res windows have snow for a few hours at the start. The NAM idea is not an outlier. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Who knows but as I said before, i'd rather the NAM show this than not so here we are on the doorstep. We will find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now