Yeoman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 8 minutes ago, high risk said: Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM"..... - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area. All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest. - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error. It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF: Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet. Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening. Why run the model if it's known to be flawed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Yeoman said: Why run the model if it's known to be flawed? Think about who ultimately runs it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Eagles lions microsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I can’t see Weather Will’s pics for some reason 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 On a separate note, does anybody have any guesses why the CWG map is oriented like this? Most models I have seen show a gradient nothing like this angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I can’t see Weather Will’s pics for some reason How did you get so lucky? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I can’t see Weather Will’s pics for some reason You have a 9% chance of 12”+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How did you get so lucky? I actually wanted to see those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 RGEM is actually looking a little more juiced up. Has a nice thump. An inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Why run the model if it's known to be flawed? Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 If you really stare, the ICON at hr 27 even has the lightest hue of blue possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Checking on the QPF, the NAM is an outlier, but it's not like it would take a crazy jump to get the other guidance in line. 50 or less miles north isn't a totally unreasonable ask... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events. I’m a little surprised that you wasted your time responding to that post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events. Ok, that was my snarky answer. The better answer builds on that a little more. It's still one of the best models for handling shallow cold air masses and things like terrain-induced wind storms in the west and fog. Ultimately, the NAM nest is a way better model, but it's driven by the 12 km NAM, so that's another reason to keep running it. Ultimately, the NAM nest and parent are frozen (no more development is being done on them) and will likely be retired in ~3 years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, high risk said: Because there is way more to judge it by than whether it's too cold and wet for DC area mixed precip events. Is there anything from that run that we can use? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Most snow I've ever seen the ICON give our area. I must be really bored 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Is there anything from that run that we can use? I’m gonna go with its snow totals. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Checking on the QPF, the NAM is an outlier, but it's not like it would take a crazy jump to get the other guidance in line. 50 or less miles north isn't a totally unreasonable ask... But the question is if the QPF comes north would the warmth follow it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’m a little surprised that you wasted your time responding to that post. Fair point. I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP.... 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Is there anything from that run that we can use? Honestly yes. The NAM is colder than the GFS which is notoriously crappy with low-level temperature profiles, and the NAM (in conjunction with the HRRR and some other meso models) is telling me that if I'm north of the Beltway tomorrow evening, I have a decent shot to see a modest accumulation of snow. I personally rarely look at the 12 km version of the NAM, because the NAM nest is a much better model, and I think that is a good strategy here this evening with the 00z cycle. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Interstate said: But the question is if the QPF can north would the warmth follow it? Someone smarter than me can chime in but I don't think this is one of those scenarios. Think we'd need the high QPF/rates from the NAM to give those outside of the favored areas a chance at a boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ok, that was my snarky answer. The better answer builds on that a little more. It's still one of the best models for handling shallow cold air masses and things like terrain-induced wind storms in the west and fog. Ultimately, the NAM nest is a way better model, but it's driven by the 12 km NAM, so that's another reason to keep running it. Ultimately, the NAM nest and parent are frozen (no more development is being done on them) and will likely be retired in ~3 years.Thanks - appreciate the response 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 19 minutes ago, high risk said: Fair point. I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP.... I don’t understand why you don’t put him on ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 33.3 and dews soaring up . Ground is frozen and that might be a factor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I don’t understand why you don’t put him on ignore. He’s probably smart and not here as often as us fools. 24 minutes ago, high risk said: Fair point. I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP.... He’s fighting windmills. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NAM 3k is interesting. Shows 850 at 0 for most of the storm. So if there is precip...maybe a surprise? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=T850&runtime=2021012500&fh=25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM 3k is interesting. Shows 850 at 0 for most of the storm. So if there is precip...maybe a surprise? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=T850&runtime=2021012500&fh=25 I think yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NWS updated Snow & Ice maps from 10:16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 GFS?.You don't use gfs 18 hours before and event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 55 minutes ago, high risk said: Fair point. I think I'm at close to my breaking point because of Weather53's crusade against NWP.... Honestly yes. The NAM is colder than the GFS which is notoriously crappy with low-level temperature profiles, and the NAM (in conjunction with the HRRR and some other mess models) is telling me that if I'm north of the Beltway tomorrow evening, I have a decent shot to see a modest accumulation of snow. I personally rarely look at the 12 km version of the NAM, because the NAM nest is a much better model, and I think that is a good strategy here this evening with the 00z cycle. Thank you for contributing...and in case you haven't noticed his ridiculous NWP conspiracy rants drive me absolutely crazy. It's not the stupidity of it...its the extreme disrespect to basically accuse so many people of that kind of thing without any evidence to back it up. The audacity to think its acceptable to just make up some BS like that and impugn the integrity of others without a shred of any evidence to support the accusation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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