Negnao Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: It’s a shame you can’t believe the NAM. Otherwise, we’d be stoked for our 2-5” of snow. Wait, DCA isn’t getting 6+ tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 WB 12K NAM, GN! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: We got nothing else. F*** it, might as well pretend we're on a snowstorm eve. Well for the next hour. THe RGEM, GFS and even ICON will come in with 2 sleet pellets and a flake for the cumulative total of the storm. And don't forget the Euro then coming in with precip amounts that would shame a desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 It’s a shame you can’t believe the NAM. Otherwise, we’d be stoked for our 2-5” of snow.WB has 6-7” for DCA before the FRZA, lol. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: Lock it up 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3k has a stripe of 1-3” running across much of the area....especially DC and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Ah, the good ol’ pre-game NAMing. Almost like a real snowstorm!I mean if it can't deliver in its 24 hour wheelhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Other than it's the NAM why is it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3k has a stripe of 1-3” running across much of the area....especially DC and north.Why is 3k always so dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Other than it's the NAM why is it wrong? We really don’t have a good answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Whoa NAM where have you been all my life? That heavy strip of snow literally runs right over my house. Is it just a pipe dream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 It kicked every other model's ass back with our only other storm in Dec 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I want the NAM to be right just to make CAPE look silly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, Negnao said: cackling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: 3k has a stripe of 1-3” running across much of the area....especially DC and north. Yeah, it doesn’t look like the 12k, but I think most of us would take it and run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2021 Author Share Posted January 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Other than it's the NAM why is it wrong? I think that's the only reason? We've all just gotten used to being told the NAM is crap so we just run with it? But this time, it likely is. There is zero other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 We haven't heard about the such a narrow swath of snow statement in awhile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 3k also says areas like skyline drive and other ridges to the west are going to get lit up with ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Other than it's the NAM why is it wrong? There’s a better chance of earth getting hit by a gamma ray burst tomorrow than DCA getting 6-7 inches from this system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 I think that's the only reason? We've all just gotten used to being told the NAM is crap so we just run with it? But this time, it likely is. There is zero other model support.We were told the nam is crap at 48-84. Not 0-24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Negnao said: There’s a better chance of earth getting hit by a gamma ray burst tomorrow than DCA getting 6-7 inches from this system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: There’s a better chance of earth getting hit by a gamma ray burst tomorrow than DCA getting 6-7 inches from this system. Are both chances zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 NAM be like dry your failed Thursday tears. I got you DMV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just now, Scraff said: NAM be like dry your failed Thursday tears. I got you DMV. It’s not like it’s completely on its own... euro has had the same idea off and on. Plus there’s the wdi... We’re due for one to break our way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM"..... - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area. All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest. - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error. It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF: Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet. Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: Just to add some actual science to justify tossing the parent NAM, rather than dismissing it by "it's the NAM"..... - the NAM parent is on an island right now with heavy precip extending through the DC metro area. All of the other guidance has jumped ship on higher liquid totals, including the NAM nest. - thermal profiles, while still snow in the NAM forecast, have zero margin for error. It's shown nicely in the NAM nest, which also has snow for much of the area, but has more realistic QPF: Multiple levels are pretty much right at 0C, so it wouldn't take much to turn that into sleet. Ultimately, I do think that those of us north of the Beltway have a shot at an inch or maybe two (for some lucky folks), and that is supported by several CAMs this evening. Can I still wish it was right though? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Can I still wish it was right though? Knock 'yerself out. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 There was that one rare time.. maybe early 2000s, when NAM was the only model showing snow up to 11 inches in the area and we got it! We are due.. right? LOL! OK - no more.. this is becoming banter! Bruce Banter (due to the Gamma ray comment) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2021 Share Posted January 25, 2021 Can I still wish it was right though?NAM nailed January 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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