Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly. Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly. Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. Yeah, the snow really came down pretty good for a short period of time in Baltimore and an extended period of time in Philly at an even higher rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly. Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. I was just thinking about that comparison earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 11 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly. Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. Don't have 500mb maps, but found this one in a folder on my hard drive. Looks like a much better high for that storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Remember the one run euro gave us 12-18?Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: This event reminds me of a warmer version of December 2013 (eagles lions game). I can’t find H5 maps for it but for some reason I feel like that was a sheered out shortwave too that took advantage of temp gradient and the fronto overachieved up here in Philly. Anyone have maps from that one curious if I’m just imagining things. That was one of the best boom scenarios. Was at the fire department in Carroll County for that. We got close to 8" when only 2". Here's the list of LWX products issued that day, courtesy of the IEM Bot: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?source=LWX&year=2013&month=12&day=8&year2=2021&month2=1&day2=22&view=time&order=asc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Don't have 500mb maps, but found this one in a folder on my hard drive. Looks like a much better high for that storm. Yea it does look like the low is sheared out though guess that’s why it came to mind. 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was just thinking about that comparison earlier today. I remember that being a complete dc and burbs type system until like the day of. The AM models started to show that precip into Philly. Was quite the surprise here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18Z GFS is 0.75”+ QPF here through h90 with temps <30 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, WVclimo said: 18Z GFS is 0.75”+ QPF here through h90 with temps <30 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 18z GFS says what snow? Lotta ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Nobody mentioned but that first round has .5" of freezing rain through MD. .5" and above is defined as "crippling". Doesn't really get colder than 31 or so on the run, probably wouldn't accrete that well verbatim, especially since its coming down at a good clip and hasn't been that cold leading up to the event. Could be a decent tree glazer I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Doesn't really get colder than 31 or so on the run, probably wouldn't accrete that well verbatim, especially since its coming down at a good clip and hasn't been that cold leading up to the event. Could be a decent tree glazer I suppose. Ah, I'm not super well versed on how freezing rain accumulates. I'm from Louisiana and have never experienced significant accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, CAPE said: My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning. Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that. Your best bet—just spill some 120 Min IPA on the front yard and see if it can actually freeze. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Ah, I'm not super well versed on how freezing rain accumulates. I'm from Louisiana and have never experienced significant accums. Neither am I honestly, so someone else might be better suited to chime in. Limited experience says it accretes better when it's more drizzly than a downpour, unless its pretty darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Yes, light fzra accumulates better and the colder the better. When we had crippling ice events in ‘94, temps were in the 10s and low 20s with fzra. But cold temps this weekend will help make surfaces cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: Your best bet—just spill some 120 Min IPA on the front yard and see if it can actually freeze. Dude, every drop of that stuff is precious. I have one in the fridge for Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Ji said: watch us get more snow for this horrible event than the Thursday I bet that map isn’t snow but sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 hours ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, the snow really came down pretty good for a short period of time in Baltimore and an extended period of time in Philly at an even higher rate. 8.2” that day with temps 27-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 18z Euro precip total 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Another tick north on 18z euro. 12z seemed to have stopped the bleeding but 18z feels like it started again. Not sure how much more we have to give at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Another tick north on 18z euro. 12z seemed to have stopped the bleeding but 18z feels like it started again. Not sure how much more we have to give at this point. With another 72 hours for it to tick north I'm not expecting any real snow even up here at the MD/PA border. Probably a little sleet then some tree glaze. I was actually more worried about suppression a couple days ago lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: With another 72 hours for it to tick north I'm not expecting any real snow even up here at the MD/PA border. Probably a little sleet then some tree glaze. I was actually more worried about suppression a couple days ago lol. Me too. Thing is...it is getting suppressed. NYC is on the northeast fringe! The real heavy precip stays south of PA. But even with the suppression the cold is too pathetic to hold. Here is the scary double bind that puts us in. If the thermal base state is so warm that to get cold we need more suppression then this...well look at Thursday. It’s not even that cold. It’s barely cold enough to snow really. And it’s taking such a suppressive flow to get even that, that there is a serious risk the storm gets squashed. So what’s our path to a win if the cold is so weak that to prevent warmth from surging north in front of any wave we need such a suppressive flow that nothing can amplify? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 NAM has the Sunday night appetizer this run. Some light snow through NOVA and DC at 3Z Monday. That is one hell of an ice storm for the Shenandoah Valley this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 All we need is for that LP to stay south of us, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 WB 0Z NAM a true wintry mix for N and W suburbs Mon afternoon and overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I am glad it is only in the high 20's and low 30's at the surface. That is a dangerous amount of ice being shown this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 0z GFS colder and snowier, particularly for north of DC 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z GFS colder and snowier, particularly for north of DC Big ice storm in N VA into DC... yikes I81 corridor gets smoked with ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 I love a good ice storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 0z GFS colder and snowier, particularly for north of DC The 0z NAM is painful up here...I get almost no snow but 20 miles north of me gets 10" lol. Probably too much to ask to get that to start to shift south when the overall bleed is the other way the last 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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