aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: How the hell did that happen with that earlier look It just wants to snow here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: How the hell did that happen with that earlier look its just meant to snow this winter 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 In all honesty we have pretty good agreement from the models that we will have an ice/rain to snow event. I am fine with it as long as we get crushed a couple of days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: How the hell did that happen with that earlier look I don’t like that progression. This is getting more complicated. I like simple. Throw some WAA at cold. Easy. We win in easy. The more we lose the cold in front and have to rely on complicated steps ugh... that said the gfs is still a pinball. Even the NAM which we would expect to be amped at 84 has way less ridging. Lets hope for less ridging and a colder trend in front and the “simple” option imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t like that progression. This is getting more complicated. I like simple. Throw some WAA at cold. Easy. We win in easy. The more we lose the cold in front and have to rely on complicated steps ugh... that said the gfs is still a pinball. Even the NAM which we would expect to be amped at 84 has way less ridging. Lets hope for less ridging and a colder trend in front and the “simple” option imo. We all know how waiting on the cold to sink south works around here lol. I'd rather have the thump to mix to dry slot type deal. Or better yet have the Euro beginning and the Gfs ending and call it a day lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Analysis of the gfs. Why not? It’s been so consistent with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 We all know how waiting on the cold to sink south works around here lol. I'd rather have the thump to mix to dry slot type deal. Or better yet have the Euro beginning and the Gfs ending and call it a day lol.Won't the cold already be here? This is a weekend with high of 52Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Won't the cold already be here? This is a weekend with high of 52 Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk 52? Not likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Won't the cold already be here? This is a weekend with high of 52 Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk Do u live in Tennessee? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 52? Not likely sorry i meant this isnt a weekend where we will see highs in the 50s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH Euro weaker through 90 hr with our ssw Looks like 2mb lookin at pressure anomaly What does the ridging out in front look like? Hopefully a little less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Not an in-depth analysis or anything but the 18z EPS looks warmer and maybe slightly more amped. Snow mean reflects that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Not an in-depth analysis or anything but the 18z EPS looks warmer and maybe slightly more amped. Snow mean reflects that. It’s hideous. Not even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: A bit more ridging in response to our ne confluence that's a smidge weaker That’s gonna mean a smidge less frozen a smidge further south. I live in the smidge zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Maps? 3 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Maps? Yes? 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Don't post the maps when it's bad because that's how it snows around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Yes? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 As I mentioned earlier with the GFS/GEFS, it seems like that group raises heights in front in turn for the system to come in and change over to snow at the end. The Euro/EPS likes none of this idea. I'd imagine the general DC area would fare better with the GFS option, as 850s crash to -3 with moderate precip still in the area. With the Euro, the WAA was as borderline as you could get, snowing at 0/-1 850s. Here's the EPS' precip depiction as the system leaves us Meanwhile, the GEFS has a fair bit more precip. Watch for this trend either on the ops or the ensembles. Given the blocking, we could totally score on an icy mix to snow scenario, especially in comparison to the torched WAA start. If only we had Arctic air in place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 850 temps are boiling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Glad you got the joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 I'm not sure I'd give weight to ensemble thermals at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Negnao said: 850 temps are boiling. If that was Fahrenheit then it would be fine. I hate Celsius...hate it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Glad you got the joke I’m smart like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'm not sure I'd give weight to ensemble thermals at this point. The big thing though is that this is trending on all guidance, even ops. Perhaps once we get into 3k or 12k NAM range that the WAA trends in our favor, but as of now we're probably losing that part of the storm. At the same time, it's GFS/GEFS vs everything else for giving us a decent WWA level event on the backend of the storm, but I guess we gotta hope for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: The big thing though is that this is trending on all guidance, even ops. Perhaps once we get into 3k or 12k NAM range that the WAA trends in our favor, but as of now we're probably losing that part of the storm. At the same time, it's GFS/GEFS vs everything else for giving us a decent WWA level event on the backend of the storm, but I guess we gotta hope for that. I’ve never seen a backend event go well. We often get shafted. It’s often painful no matter how well it’s presented before hand. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: I'm not sure I'd give weight to ensemble thermals at this point. I hear that and you’re not entirely wrong. But we’re losing more ground each wobble then gaining back. 12z Eps shifted south on track but thermals were meh. 18z went the wrong way on both. Still wouldn’t be surprised if things trend toward a weaker more suppressed solution; but it hasn’t yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I’ve never seen a backend event go well. We often get shafted. It’s often painful no matter how well it’s presented before hand. Well crafted 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: I hear that and you’re not entirely wrong. But we’re losing more ground each wobble then gaining back. 12z Eps shifted south on track but thermals were meh. 18z went the wrong way on both. Still wouldn’t be surprised if things trend toward a weaker more suppressed solution; but it hasn’t yet. Don’t our odds of temps crashing on the back and turning all to snow increase if the system is stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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