Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: On the 12z Euro, it appears that H5 is a bit flatter out ahead of the system than it's 00z counterpart. Would be nice to score two solid advisory level events next week. I'm hoping for an advisory and a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'm hoping for an advisory and a warning looks like my guitar gig on the 31st is safe though! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I'm hoping for an advisory and a warning I've learned to set my expectations low here over the past 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm hoping for an advisory and a warning Maybe a blizzard warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs... 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 27 minutes ago, H2O said: Back in the grey again. I'm out With the suppression trend this year I won’t be surprised if we are complaining about all the QPF being in NC in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I've learned to set my expectations low here over the past 3 years. I hear ya...which is why I said "I hope", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs... But, but Weather Will said it ticked north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I hear ya...which is why I said "I hope", lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 53 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z EPS thru Day 5 Basically, the same as 6Z, a tick North at southern edge. 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS mean definitely moved south with the Op. Really want that to continue. Wouldn’t take a lot to have the meat of the snow band through much of our area. Precip starts in under 100hrs... We’re at the stage where I think the op is better given the lower resolution ensembles will struggle with the thermals and CAD. If we take anything from the EPS it’s the trend with MSLP and h5 heights not the snow mean. So like Wxusaf said the eps supported the slight south trend in the op despite what the clown maps say. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re at the stage where I think the op is better given the lower resolution ensembles will struggle with the thermals and CAD. If we take anything from the EPS it’s the trend with MSLP and h5 heights not the snow mean. So like Wxusaf said the eps supported the slight south trend in the op despite what the clown maps say. Despite what everyone here does, the utility of ensembles is not for the snow maps. It’s for track and strength of features. The track shifted south from 0z to 12z. Once we get the the point of sweating thermal profiles (12z Saturday runs probably), then you’re focusing on the operational model. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But, but Weather Will said it ticked north. I'll see you in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Y'all mf'ers better pace yourselves....it's only Thursday lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 We are almost in NAM range! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 We are gonna get whacked twice. I can feel it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: We are gonna get whacked twice. I can feel it. I guarantee it, and WxWatcher007 will be going out of business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Icon warmer at the surface fwiw. Next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 From Mount Holly afternoon AFD- This just about covers the range of possibilities with this event lol. I still lean towards more souther/possibly somewhat suppressed wave, but what do I know? 12Z guidance (in general) did trend a little more amplified with the upper-level system thus allowing the primary-low to progress a bit further north before falling apart, which in turn slightly delays the formation of the secondary low. The envelope of sensible weather possibilities remains large, with snow rapidly changing to mix from S-N in the most amplified/northward tracking solutions (UKMET), to the mix line stalling over the area, before transitioning back to snow on the back end (ECMWF), to generally pure snow more focused over the southern half of the area (GFS). Although not explicitly shown in the 12Z deterministic suite, the possibility of the wave being suppressed and the bulk of the precip shield remaining to our south still remains on the table, and this is particularly highlighted by a camp of GEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS with more ridging out in front. Not sure it's going to be what we want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: GFS with more ridging out in front. Not sure it's going to be what we want lol Closed low depicted at 96 hrs S of VA Beach trying to counter. That's new at that hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Erm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Paleocene said: Erm Need a vomit emoji reaction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Closed low depicted at 96 hrs S of VA Beach trying to counter. That's new at that hour. Seems like it succeeded?? Moderate snow back into DC at 114. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 HH is mix to snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Need a vomit emoji reaction Overall the system was further south but warmer with too much ridging out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Pinks to blues. Time for a HH GooFuS beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Seems like it succeeded?? Moderate snow back into DC at 114. Yeah, verbatim its a icy mix (lol, we know how those go in the urban areas) to snow scenario for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 How the hell did that happen with that earlier look 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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