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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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15 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

Here’s the 500mb field from the 12z UKMET

8B35790A-2213-4E2F-B8DD-0EEE5C4E2EDB.gif.794543ce4eaf1fa6ce26ec81557c2e50.gif

Some positive trends for our area. Northern vort is definitely further north and the west based -NAO should help to minimize any crazy northward trend with the main southern energy and help it to amplify. One of the main things that intrigues me is the availability of moisture should the southern energy have room to strengthen with some added STJ influence. Not completely sold out for our area yet as I would like to see some more positive trends. Should get a clearer picture by tomorrow 12Z runs. 

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

When we packed to car to start the drive from Boston, I made sure to bring deep boots.  The pattern looked good.  Got here and realized it looked like winter, strong snow burst Tuesday evening-and now hopefully the big show.  Big weekend of tracking incoming.

The burst we got Tuesday night was our biggest event yet haha

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When we packed to car to start the drive from Boston, I made sure to bring deep boots.  The pattern looked good.  Got here and realized it looked like winter, strong snow burst Tuesday evening-and now hopefully the big show.  Big weekend of tracking incoming.

You realize you're going to have to move to Chicago if this pans out, right?

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When we packed to car to start the drive from Boston, I made sure to bring deep boots.  The pattern looked good.  Got here and realized it looked like winter, strong snow burst Tuesday evening-and now hopefully the big show.  Big weekend of tracking incoming.

That's a long drive if you do it regularly. I don't mind road trips, but they can be tiring sometimes. Bring your New England magic this way so Chicago-Detroit-Toronto can get a 12"+ storm. 

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42 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

What's nice about this setup is that we're not relying on an exotic phase, like some of the fails the past few winters. Main sensitivity is to the magnitude of confluence from the NAO blocking and to a lesser extent the magnitude of the main shortwave itself. We're seeing the potential here if that confluence can stay far enough north. Still some failure modes, but also plenty of reasons why this has legs.

 

Another important thing to keep in mind is that without that block, there's no event here, background pattern of plunging -PNA (which would normally yield a strongly amplifying SE ridge), La Nina forcing, and point of entry of the southern stream wave probably would be a pretty warm cutter. So there's some concern lingering for suppression, but lessening vs yesterday given trends since then. I think concern for wave coming in too far north and bringing mixing issues farther north is a valid one too. All in all, I like where we sit and we have some wiggle room.

 

 

 

 

Personally, I am 10 times more concerned about the heavy band being north of here than I am about it being south.  It will either be I-80 or north of I-80 imo.  

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26 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I’m trying to keep my hopes in check, after the great disappearing act of late winter 2020. 

 It was a nice snowfall on February 26, 5.7" here, but honestly I don't remember any of the hype surrounding it? Was it a storm that went farther south than anticipated or was not as strong?

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