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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t know the local micro climate but the GFS blows no matter where the location is.  

gfs is especially bad for a lot of the lake effect/lake enhanced events we get in Michigan. it will show a generic blob of precip and good luck even getting an idea where the best bands are (hi res is better but not fool proof)

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8 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Thought the NAM was also pretty accurate with that event?

If my memory is correct-NAM was the model that showed a good deformation band well north of other models and that’s what happened.   I ended up with 14.1 inches which was obliterated by the obscene grinch.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

If my memory is correct-NAM was the model that showed a good deformation band well north of other models and that’s what happened.   I ended up with 14.1 inches which was obliterated by the obscene grinch.

The grinch storm temp gradient was insane. Christmas was our coldest day of this mild winter (upper teens/low 20s and 3.6" snow)...frost in Florida...60s in Maine.

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Textbook for the Chicago metro.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Chicago to Detroit LOL. So far we got the CMC to bump north and the UKIE to come north... Just need to have the EURO hold and honestly the NAM if it went past 84 looked promising. I think we got something here folks. 

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What's nice about this setup is that we're not relying on an exotic phase, like some of the fails the past few winters. Main sensitivity is to the magnitude of confluence from the NAO blocking and to a lesser extent the magnitude of the main shortwave itself. We're seeing the potential here if that confluence can stay far enough north. Still some failure modes, but also plenty of reasons why this has legs.

 

Another important thing to keep in mind is that without that block, there's no event here, background pattern of plunging -PNA (which would normally yield a strongly amplifying SE ridge), La Nina forcing, and point of entry of the southern stream wave probably would be a pretty warm cutter. So there's some concern lingering for suppression, but lessening vs yesterday given trends since then. I think concern for wave coming in too far north and bringing mixing issues farther north is a valid one too. All in all, I like where we sit and we have some wiggle room.

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Chicago to Detroit LOL. So far we got the CMC to bump north and the UKIE to come north... Just need to have the EURO hold and honestly the NAM if it went past 84 looked promising. I think we got something here folks. 

My favorite storm. 16.7" at Detroit, 18" on the ground...Nice deep snowpack was put in place for the record cold month that would follow.

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Hard not to be cautiously optimistic looking at guidance. Haven’t had a spread the wealth track like that in a few years. Glad we don’t have to rely on a phase here to get the big dog storm. Still have concerns that the northern stream suppresses this to the south, but it’ll also keep this from just cutting north. Liking the CHI-DET corridor fo sho
 

That UKMET run is the literally dream.  Deepens to 990mb just south of Toledo. Would probably be getting blizzard conditions in some of the region with a sizable area of 30-45kt 925mb winds. The area of 1.0”+ QPF with ratios definitely a little better than 10:1 would get big dog totals. Taking that run to the bank 

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