A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 12 hours ago, Hoosier said: Something else to watch... there's the possibility of a nice lake response on the western end of Lake Michigan to add to whatever synoptic amounts occur. Not dealing with an extremely cold airmass by any means, but the warmth this winter has kept lake temps elevated. If it works out, the lake enhancement could easily tack on several inches. Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Cary#s death band Will blow that up and put it over the mantle. Weather art is trending 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 6z EPS mean.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z EPS mean... . Low track is solid. Imagine with this low track there is most certainly enhancement along the southwestern shore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 When does sampling begin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 When does sampling begin? Between tonight and tomorrow night.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Sharp cut off. Someone gets screwed. Hopefully ice and sleet are at a min, however doesn't look too likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Sharp cut off. Someone gets screwed. Hopefully ice and sleet are at a min, however doesn't look too likely. someone always gets screwed. That's the way this works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Sharp cut off. Someone gets screwed. Hopefully ice and sleet are at a min, however doesn't look too likely. I'd be more worried about the energy coming out in pieces, and a miss south with the main energy than ice, sleet and a bigger threat with all the energy ejecting together. Most models seem to be keying on the former occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The GTA should take 2-4" and run with it. Would be biggest snowfall in nearly a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby Low-level thermals are meh, but there should be a little enhancement from the lakeshore convergence and seeding from the 700mb forcing. Probably a case of be careful what you wish for, because to get an influx of colder air at ~850 than is currently modeled, you'd more than likely end up squashing the system back to the south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Well here we go.. Hopefully some good changes on the 12z runs today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Cary#s death band I want a death band and I want it now! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 GFS continues to cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 best model miss south stank wafting over 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The classic GFS baby stepping we know and love. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 For the lulz, go on Tidbits and do a run to run of the GFS going back to 12z yesterday. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: For the lulz, go on Tidbits and do a run to run of the GFS going back to 12z yesterday. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I thought going back to 00z last night was generous, and it's still atrocious. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 I don’t know the local micro climate but the GFS blows no matter where the location is. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: For the lulz, go on Tidbits and do a run to run of the GFS going back to 12z yesterday. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk its still.south though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Nice to see the CMC tick back north after last nights terrible run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 its still.south though. It's good to use some caution, there's no guarantees the ECMWF locks in and we'll have to see the rest of the 12z suite. Model adjustments don't necessarily follow a linear caving trend. It's just interesting to see a linear-like trend on the GFS and having similar experiences in the past. For the December 17th storm I've referenced, the GFS did not really budge from its incorrect solution, it only stepped that way in the near term, and honorary New England sub thread guest@weathafella can comment more on that. I've brought it up because it's fairly analogous in that the GFS for that setup struggled mightily with the effect of confluence from the north. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2021 Author Share Posted January 21, 2021 Nice to see the CMC tick back north after last nights terrible run Indeed. Solid jump back northward.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Indeed. Solid jump back northward. . Looking like also the GEFS might jump north slightly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The mean is still south though. Sorry I can not upload images my computer is trash. I need to buy a new one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: It's good to use some caution, there's no guarantees the ECMWF locks in and we'll have to see the rest of the 12z suite. Model adjustments don't necessarily follow a linear caving trend. It's just interesting to see a linear-like trend on the GFS and having similar experiences in the past. For the December 17th storm I've referenced, the GFS did not really budge from its incorrect solution, it only stepped that way in the near term, and honorary New England sub thread guest@weathafella can comment more on that. I've brought it up because it's fairly analogous in that the GFS for that setup struggled mightily with the effect of confluence from the north. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah the GFS was a clean whiff until close in-recollection is it got a clue the final 24 hours. Dendrite went from light snow to a verification of 30+. In general if the euro is this consistent ride it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 The mean is still south though. Sorry I can not upload images my computer is trash. I need to buy a new one! Definitely a bump north vs 06z. If the ECMWF and EPS don't change drastically, I'd give more forecast weighting to the ECMWF suite than the GFS/GEFS. Would like to see the UKMET jump more fully on board today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, weathafella said: Yeah the GFS was a clean whiff until close in-recollection is it got a clue the final 24 hours. Dendrite went from light snow to a verification of 30+. In general if the euro is this consistent ride it. Thought the NAM was also pretty accurate with that event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Definitely a bump north vs 06z. If the ECMWF and EPS don't change drastically, I'd give more forecast weighting to the ECMWF suite than the GFS/GEFS. Would like to see the UKMET jump more fully on board today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I fully agree man if the UKMET could bump north today that would be great! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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