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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Something else to watch... there's the possibility of a nice lake response on the western end of Lake Michigan to add to whatever synoptic amounts occur.  Not dealing with an extremely cold airmass by any means, but the warmth this winter has kept lake temps elevated.  If it works out, the lake enhancement could easily tack on several inches.

Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby

 

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3 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Sharp cut off.  

 

Someone gets screwed.  Hopefully ice and sleet are at a min, however doesn't look too likely.

I'd be more worried about the energy coming out in pieces, and a miss south with the main energy than ice, sleet and a bigger threat with all the energy ejecting together. Most models seem to be keying on the former occuring.

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2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Southern lake still upper 30s to near 40 at shore, if track ends up working out favorably this really keeps the ceiling quite high, iirc enhancement was a big part of why ghd2 went 20+ imby

Low-level thermals are meh, but there should be a little enhancement from the lakeshore convergence and seeding from the 700mb forcing. Probably a case of be careful what you wish for, because to get an influx of colder air at ~850 than is currently modeled, you'd more than likely end up squashing the system back to the south. 

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its still.south though. 
It's good to use some caution, there's no guarantees the ECMWF locks in and we'll have to see the rest of the 12z suite. Model adjustments don't necessarily follow a linear caving trend. It's just interesting to see a linear-like trend on the GFS and having similar experiences in the past.

For the December 17th storm I've referenced, the GFS did not really budge from its incorrect solution, it only stepped that way in the near term, and honorary New England sub thread guest@weathafella can comment more on that. I've brought it up because it's fairly analogous in that the GFS for that setup struggled mightily with the effect of confluence from the north.

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7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's good to use some caution, there's no guarantees the ECMWF locks in and we'll have to see the rest of the 12z suite. Model adjustments don't necessarily follow a linear caving trend. It's just interesting to see a linear-like trend on the GFS and having similar experiences in the past.

For the December 17th storm I've referenced, the GFS did not really budge from its incorrect solution, it only stepped that way in the near term, and honorary New England sub thread guest@weathafella can comment more on that. I've brought it up because it's fairly analogous in that the GFS for that setup struggled mightily with the effect of confluence from the north.

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Yeah the GFS was a clean whiff until close in-recollection is it got a clue the final 24 hours.  Dendrite went from light snow to a verification of 30+.  In general if the euro is this consistent ride it.

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The mean is still south though. Sorry I can not upload images my computer is trash. I need to buy a new one! 
Definitely a bump north vs 06z. If the ECMWF and EPS don't change drastically, I'd give more forecast weighting to the ECMWF suite than the GFS/GEFS. Would like to see the UKMET jump more fully on board today.

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Definitely a bump north vs 06z. If the ECMWF and EPS don't change drastically, I'd give more forecast weighting to the ECMWF suite than the GFS/GEFS. Would like to see the UKMET jump more fully on board today.

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I fully agree man if the UKMET could bump north today that would be great! 

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