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Jan 24-26th Something Potential


Chicago Storm
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3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Very valid points you make aside, I'm struggling to come around to the idea that the precip shield of a well developed mid latitude cyclone is going to be that bullied by confluence from the north when the system had already established an expansive moderate to heavy precip shield. I think that it would be a more gradual process.

An event that comes to my mind from growing up in NY is the Feb 5-6 2010 mid atlantic "snowmageddon" blizzard. That was probably the strongest west based -NAO on record amidst a record prolonged -AO. The confluence over the NYC metro was true buzzsaw stuff on the north edge. But yet the system itself didn't get shredded apart, it just led to one of the most extreme north side gradients you'll ever see (~30" in PHL and T at KNYC). As a snowlover, it was a nightmare scenario.

But I think I go back to it because I want to believe a model like the GEM is depicting too rapid of destructive interference on the system. Itll happen eventually but I'd think longitude of my area has more wiggle room than points east. It's like a hurricane making landfall, it loses its heat source and eventually the whole system winds down but the precip doesn't fall apart immediately.

If we're talking unimpeded Gulf trajectories, a well developed trowal and intense low and mid level f-gen into Iowa at our latitude, is the precip shield all of a sudden gonna dance southeast because of confluence? I'll end my rambling but that's my thought process on this. I buy the weakening eastward of the synoptic system because it makes sense but not such a rapid modulation of the precip swath.

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Good points being made. I agree.

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That Ukie depiction of a 997 mb low just east of KC at hour 72 to 1000 mb near Cincy at hour 78 seems a bit far fetched even if you account for the good probability of the system occluding and weakening eastward. The UK has been very unstable leading up to this system so its hard to put a ton of stock into it for the forecast, even though (weenie goggles on) it is a nice run for the outcome we're hoping for.

However, if we take the 00z Tuesday position off to the east of KC as a perfect prog, it becomes clear that the occlusion process aided by the confluence and shearing of the wave saves us from mixing or a rainer. That surface low position has me concerned anyway if it gets more guidance support for mixing getting farther north than the model depicts explicitly.

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Just now, Malacka11 said:

Honestly, my only worry is if the track were to have collapsed south. I firmly believe this storm will start ramping up on models over the next two days, and you guys can curse me forever if it doesn't

 

I almost think we get more Snow having the energy sheared apart. It just sits over us and snows for 6 hours on this run 

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7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I almost think we get more Snow having the energy sheared apart. It just sits over us and snows for 6 hours on this run 

I also think, subjectively, that in the end the shearing doesnt begin to have real detrimental effects until at Chicago's longitude or east of there. I also think there's an impressive QPF bomb (yielding 15" or more??) somewhere, but models still differ on where that is, exactly. 

Wave starts to feel it between F66 and F72, but you would think the degradation of the precip shield itself would delay that by several hours, which by then would be over/east of Chicago.

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Snapshot but you get the idea. Nice co-location of heavier precip rates and 925 mb winds of 40-45 kts.  Probably not that great of a mixing regime, but 925 mb isn't terribly far aloft and even shallow mixing would likely be able to 35 to maybe 40 mph gusts to the surface.

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925wh.us_mw.thumb.png.3c66da56dac4ee627b574b28009b05aa.png

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