blizzardof96 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Very valid points you make aside, I'm struggling to come around to the idea that the precip shield of a well developed mid latitude cyclone is going to be that bullied by confluence from the north when the system had already established an expansive moderate to heavy precip shield. I think that it would be a more gradual process. An event that comes to my mind from growing up in NY is the Feb 5-6 2010 mid atlantic "snowmageddon" blizzard. That was probably the strongest west based -NAO on record amidst a record prolonged -AO. The confluence over the NYC metro was true buzzsaw stuff on the north edge. But yet the system itself didn't get shredded apart, it just led to one of the most extreme north side gradients you'll ever see (~30" in PHL and T at KNYC). As a snowlover, it was a nightmare scenario. But I think I go back to it because I want to believe a model like the GEM is depicting too rapid of destructive interference on the system. Itll happen eventually but I'd think longitude of my area has more wiggle room than points east. It's like a hurricane making landfall, it loses its heat source and eventually the whole system winds down but the precip doesn't fall apart immediately. If we're talking unimpeded Gulf trajectories, a well developed trowal and intense low and mid level f-gen into Iowa at our latitude, is the precip shield all of a sudden gonna dance southeast because of confluence? I'll end my rambling but that's my thought process on this. I buy the weakening eastward of the synoptic system because it makes sense but not such a rapid modulation of the precip swath. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Good points being made. I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 YEP Just now, hawkeye_wx said: UK well north yep 12z 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, ILSNOW said: YEP yep 12z 0z I like the ukie track if we could just bump those totals up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Malacka11 said: I like the ukie track if we could just bump those totals up dont forget these are 10:1 ratios 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 The GEM and the NAM are alone. Sincerely more worried about precip types here but ultimately think we’ll be fine in the entire LOT CWA. Beginning to turn into a QPF issue rather than where will main band set up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Kinda sucks, I've been growing fond of the GEM this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Uncle doing uncle things. Wild swings run to run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 That Ukie depiction of a 997 mb low just east of KC at hour 72 to 1000 mb near Cincy at hour 78 seems a bit far fetched even if you account for the good probability of the system occluding and weakening eastward. The UK has been very unstable leading up to this system so its hard to put a ton of stock into it for the forecast, even though (weenie goggles on) it is a nice run for the outcome we're hoping for.However, if we take the 00z Tuesday position off to the east of KC as a perfect prog, it becomes clear that the occlusion process aided by the confluence and shearing of the wave saves us from mixing or a rainer. That surface low position has me concerned anyway if it gets more guidance support for mixing getting farther north than the model depicts explicitly. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 GFSv16 is running again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Current thinking for LOT cwa. Tomorrow should be a fun day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Toss all the 0z runs tonight folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Toss all the 0z runs tonight folks Thereeeeeee we go. Was wondering where you were 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said: Toss all the 0z runs tonight folks Northern piece will have it's say via sampling, and bump us back a few counties south. Then it's game on for qpf, track, strength, longevity, etc.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Thereeeeeee we go. Was wondering where you were I'm in the shadows lurking, waiting for the south trend 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I'm in the shadows lurking, waiting for the south trend Dude same. Ninja buddies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 1 hour ago, kevlon62 said: Back to 80% snow chance on the P&C here in the northern tier. Tag team bringin' it back. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk There was never a question 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro ticking north again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 23, 2021 Author Share Posted January 23, 2021 Appears 0z Euro will also bump NW early on.But as the case with other 0z guidance, there’s more confluence over the Lakes/Northeast and the wave is peaking out west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Appears 0z Euro will also bump NW early on. But as the case with other 0z guidance, there’s more confluence over the Lakes/Northeast and the wave is peaking out west. . Still looking to be a solid N IL hit, but definitely getting sheared out faster this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Looked like it would be north, but for eastern Iowa to Chicago it's nearly identical to the 12z and south of the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Looked like it would be north, but for eastern Iowa to Chicago it's nearly identical to the 12z and south of the 18z. Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Not quite the fridge material that the 18z run was. But much like the UK and Canadian, it peaks in Nebraska. Still solid through chicago however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Euro showing lake enhancement Tuesday adding a few inches at least. Solid threat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Throwing a ton of snow back west. Still sig snow falling back into IA at 90hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Yep. Sign me up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Throwing a ton of snow back west. Still sig snow falling back into IA at 90hr Similar to the 00z Canadian, it leaves the stretched-out energy hanging over our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Honestly, my only worry is if the track were to have collapsed south. I firmly believe this storm will start ramping up on models over the next two days, and you guys can curse me forever if it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Just now, Malacka11 said: Honestly, my only worry is if the track were to have collapsed south. I firmly believe this storm will start ramping up on models over the next two days, and you guys can curse me forever if it doesn't I almost think we get more Snow having the energy sheared apart. It just sits over us and snows for 6 hours on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I almost think we get more Snow having the energy sheared apart. It just sits over us and snows for 6 hours on this run I also think, subjectively, that in the end the shearing doesnt begin to have real detrimental effects until at Chicago's longitude or east of there. I also think there's an impressive QPF bomb (yielding 15" or more??) somewhere, but models still differ on where that is, exactly. Wave starts to feel it between F66 and F72, but you would think the degradation of the precip shield itself would delay that by several hours, which by then would be over/east of Chicago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 23, 2021 Share Posted January 23, 2021 Snapshot but you get the idea. Nice co-location of heavier precip rates and 925 mb winds of 40-45 kts. Probably not that great of a mixing regime, but 925 mb isn't terribly far aloft and even shallow mixing would likely be able to 35 to maybe 40 mph gusts to the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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